Will BP's Top Kill Procedure Stop the Gulf Oil Spill?

[tyroman]

OK, so 48 hours in total then.

24 hours for his thumbs up. Then another 24 hours before independent confirmation that he's lying.

Oh yes... your baseless slander is good for at least one "Biggrin"
.

 

[DaveC426913]

Oh yes... your baseless slander is good for at least one "Biggrin"
.

How is it baseless and how is it slander?
Has he not demonstrated this behaviour enough already this week?


You're right. I only suggested he'd holding back for a day. To be accurate, I should have said a month (April 22 to May 21).

 

[HeLiXe]

I was wondering what top kill is exactly:

Engineers worked through Tuesday night to prepare for the "top kill" procedure, running diagnostic and other tests to ensure that conditions were right. The effort involves injecting dense drilling mud into the blown-out wellhead and then sealing it with cement.

After receiving the go-ahead from the Obama administration, BP started pumping the heavy mixture at 1 pm central time. Several hundred engineers in Houston have prepared for the effort for weeks. It has been done before, but never at the 5,000-foot depth of the BP leak, and officials have cautioned that there is no guarantee of success.

If executed incorrectly, it could even increase the flow of oil, which has poured into the gulf for more than a month. The spill has tainted tens of thousands of square miles of water and washed up on 100 miles of Louisiana shoreline.

From the LA Times http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/greenspace/2010/05/gulf-oil-spill-results-of-top-kill-operation-wont-be-know-for-24-hours.html"

Ya so I know I have like 3 more calculus classes to go and 9 more physics classes in various areas before I know something...but from what I understand oil is made by constant grinding of rock against organic matter under tremendous amounts of pressure, I know they are taking the pressure of the ocean into consideration along with the materials and other pressures they are using to compact the well, but wouldn't it continue to flow until the pressure from within somewhat levels off with the pressure without, unless the force compacting it is greater than the force of the pressure from within? I cannot fathom that the drilling mud could be dense enough to compact the well...and are they using dry or wet cement? It doesn't seem as if it would work to me although I wish anything would.

 

[magpies]

I think wet cement as they are pumping it into the tube. I'm not sure about drilling mud but supposidly it was just ment to slow it down a little. If it was me I would just drop a 500 ton cement brick on the thing.

 

[Moonbear]

What sector? Fisheries? Oil drilling? Shallow water drilling, or just deep water drilling? Shore based oil drilling?

Fisheries, recreation, tourism (think beaches, wetlands parks, scuba diving...), shipping. I don't know if power plants for coastal cities use any of that water for cooling systems, but it seems likely.

If they can't fish in the Gulf, then not only are the people in that industry out of work, but the overall cost of fish is going to go up if there's less in the stores because it's only supplied from other places. In an economy where people are carefully watching their food budgets, if what is available is too expensive, people just might not be able to afford that food.

Nobody is minimizing the impact on the entire ecosystem (there's a lot more than just fish in that water) by commenting on the impact to the economy of the region and beyond.

 

[lisab]

I was watching the gusher when the answer came to me. If we adjust the sample rate of the video, it would look like the crap is going *backwards*, back into the earth. Problem solved!

OK maybe not something to joke about .

 

[mheslep]

, shipping.

How's that?

 

[magpies]

Don't give bp any bright ideas!

Also is anyone else amazed that the gulf has not exploded yet via some dumb fisherman tossing a cigg into the water?

 

[HeLiXe]

I think wet cement as they are pumping it into the tube.

I guess that's why the live cam just looks like a mess with matter floating all around.

Does anyone know how far below the surface the well is?

 

[magpies]

No clue I think it's near the bottom... 3000 ft?

 

[Glennage]

Crews involved in oil recovery feeling sick; boats recalled.

http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2010/05/2...recovery-feeling-sick-boats-recalled/?hpt=T1"

This is all truly horrible.

 

[magpies]

I think I brought this up earlyer kinda... I was wondering if the oil stench was going to be blow to where I am at the time I didn't think it would but now I got to wonder... Might be time to move back home up north.

Eh the wind seems to blow in cuba's direction I think :(

 

[Glennage]

I think I brought this up earlyer kinda... I was wondering if the oil stench was going to be blow to where I am at the time I didn't think it would but now I got to wonder... Might be time to move back home up north.

I presume it would...

I thought we would have heard something by now about the Top Kill to see if it's working/worked - Just any kind of update...

They say no news is good news... But I am not so sure.

 

[magpies]

Last time I checked the live feed on cnn it seemed to be doing the same thing however I did notice that the pipes seemed to change into the color white if that means anything...

 

[Argentum Vulpes]

Don't give bp any bright ideas!...

I've heard an idea was floated to use a thermo nuclear device set almost on top of the well head. The idea was the resulting blast would form Trinitite and seal the well off. It would definitely be a bright idea.

 

[magpies]

I honestly don't agree a nuke would be a bad idea imo.

Heres my plan for fixing this if I was in charge... First I would stop the leak... If I could I'd just drop a big *** block of metal or cement onto the pipe and just hope it works. Then my next step would be to set the ocean on fire and burn all of the oil I can. Of course I would probably give a warning to people to get the hell away from the oil first but imo it be good to do this sooner then later. As for the rest of the oil or mess I'd just say nature can take care of it for now till I come up with an actual good plan. My plan probably would result in lots of people having to move away from the coast for awhile. That's probably gona happen anyhow tho so...

 

[xxChrisxx]

I honestly don't agree a nuke would be a bad idea imo.

Heres my plan for fixing this if I was in charge... First I would stop the leak... If I could I'd just drop a big *** block of metal or cement onto the pipe and just hope it works. Then my next step would be to set the ocean on fire and burn all of the oil I can. Of course I would probably give a warning to people to get the hell away from the oil first but imo it be good to do this sooner then later. As for the rest of the oil or mess I'd just say nature can take care of it for now till I come up with an actual good plan. My plan probably would result in lots of people having to move away from the coast for awhile. That's probably gona happen anyhow tho so...

What do you think they've been trying to do? The problem with this is that you have pressurised material, you simply can't just drop a large block of metal or concrete on it as it doesn't solve the problem. You need to stop or divert the flow of the oil, if you just put something heavy on top of it, the pressure would just build and build and blow it off. No matter how heavy you made it (there are practical limits to making and shifting something of the required size).

 

[magpies]

Well it would have to be really really heavy then :/ I didn't say it was going to work I just said that's what I'd do. You really don't think sinking like the largest ship the navy has ontop of the pipe would stop it? You could even fill the ship with cement before hand.

 

[xxChrisxx]

Well it would have to be really really heavy then :/ I didn't say it was going to work I just said that's what I'd do. You really don't think sinking like the largest ship the navy has ontop of the pipe would stop it?

It certainly wouldn't stop the leak. Sinking a large ship wouldn't create a seal, it's just put tons of **** on top of the problem. The problem is that if just dropped lots of tonnage on top of the pipe, the fluid can flow through any holes there are.

 

[magpies]

I kinda thought it wouldn't work before I was thinking large block of metal but now that I thought about sinking something like an battleship ontop of it I think it could actually work. I mean its just gota cover up the hole where oil comes out right?

 

[xxChrisxx]

I kinda thought it wouldn't work before I was thinking large block of metal but now that I thought about sinking something like an battleship ontop of it I think it could actually work. I mean its just gota cover up the hole where oil comes out right?

As much as putting your hand over a burst water main keeps water from coming out, or a plaster on arterial bleeding.

It's not just about 'covering the hole' you'd have to create a seal.

 

[magpies]

The seal would be the bottom end of a billion ton battle ship. Ok so what could possibly make this seal iyo? Like currently I believe the plan was to use cement is that strong enough?

Oh sorry that wasnt your idea... never mind.

 

[Glennage]

The seal would be the bottom end of a billion ton battle ship. Ok so what could possibly make this seal iyo? Like currently I believe the plan was to use cement is that strong enough?

Oh sorry that wasnt your idea... never mind.

They believe a Nuke would seal the hole(s)

 

[xxChrisxx]

The seal would be the bottom end of a billion ton battle ship. Ok so what could possibly make this seal iyo? Like currently I believe the plan was to use cement is that strong enough?

A seal means creating no leak path for the fluid to flow through, even a tiny crack will allow flow. Not only that a crack will get heaved apart from the pressure. If you drop of ship on it, there WILL be leak paths. Meaning it'll just take longer but the oil will just keep flowing. It also makes getting to the problem area int the future almost impossible as there is a honking great ship on top of it.

A billion tons? The biggest super arrier is on the order of 100k ton.

This is the reason BP are making such a fuss about the kill well, it really is the last option.

I mean your idea was to use a nuke... I hate to tell you this but a nuke that far under the ocean does almost nothing.

Not my idea bud. and frankly a nuke could possible work. You'd have to drop it down a well shaft but the detonatio would collapse a few million tons of rock on top of it. The good thing about rock and seabed is that the pessure and all the mud down there acutally will collapse the reserviour and crease a seal.

I can imagine it being pretty effing dangerous though.

 

[magpies]

Ya sorry about that realized it wasn't your idea too late. Well honestly I don't think the kill well idea is going to work however I don't fully understand what they are doing or how. I mean if it's the last option and it doesn't work then we just wait 2 months for the relief well? How does the relief well even stop this? I just figured with that effort the goal was to get all the oil out is that correct?

I mean if it turns out kill well doesn't work would you be ok with some other option to try? I believe some farmers suggested using hay...

Oh ok so I wikied relief well and basically it's just the kill well plan at large scale hurm...

 

[xxChrisxx]

Ya sorry about that realized it wasn't your idea too late. Well honestly I don't think the kill well idea is going to work however I don't fully understand what they are doing or how. I mean if it's the last option and it doesn't work then we just wait 2 months for the relief well? How does the relief well even stop this? I just figured with that effort the goal was to get all the oil out is that correct

Oil isn't sitting in a big liquid pool, it's a colliod with the porus rock. Much in the same way water is with grit in quicksand. What a kill well does is pump mud **** and concrete down the well. This gets into the prous rock, sets and stops oil from 'seeping' from the rock.

The reason it's called a kill well, is that once you do it. It's highly likely that the well will never flow oil again. It's sometimes possible, to get a killed well reflowing you have to pump some faily nasty chemicals and explosives down into the reservoir.

What a relief well would do is divert the oil flow away from the broken pipe to be collected elsewehre.

 

[magpies]

Hurm I just read a wiki article about the oil spill that happened in the 60s that was similar to this one. They finally fixed it after 10 months with a relief well so...

 

[DaveC426913]

Oil isn't sitting in a big liquid pool, it's a colliod with the porus rock. Much in the same way water is with grit in quicksand. What a kill well does is pump mud **** and concrete down the well. This gets into the prous rock, sets and stops oil from 'seeping' from the rock.

The reason it's called a kill well, is that once you do it. It's highly likely that the well will never flow oil again. It's sometimes possible, to get a killed well reflowing you have to pump some faily nasty chemicals and explosives down into the reservoir.

What a relief well would do is divert the oil flow away from the broken pipe to be collected elsewehre.

Correct me if I'm wrong but, thy can always drill another well, right? We're killing the well, not the reservoir.

Doesn't mean it won't be expensive, having to start again from scratch.

 

[xxChrisxx]

Correct me if I'm wrong but, thy can always drill another well, right? We're killing the well, not the reservoir.

Doesn't mean it won't be expensive, having to start again from scratch.

It really depends, it's a bit of an unknown how much will be lost(hence high risk). You will certainly lose yield around the site. Depending on the nature of the reservoir conditions.

I suppose saying the entire thing will be unsuable is a bit of an overstatement. I misspoke, I didn't mean the entire field, as they can be huge. But that small section will probably be unsable. I'm still fairly new to the oil and gas industry, I should have taken a greater interest in this but I didn't.

 

[magpies]

I don't really see why it's a part of the equation? What does it matter if the well is closed or not?

 

[xxChrisxx]

I don't really see why it's a part of the equation? What does it matter if the well is closed or not?

By killing the well, you are effectively concreting part of the reserviour. Meaning that of the 50million barrels left in there. A certain percentage of that will become competely unrecoverable, a ceritan percentage recoverable be reviving the well and some will be untouched. I can't give you figures, as I simply don't know. It also means a new well system needs to be put in place, which is massively expensive.

So depending on the estimates of how much of the oil becomes unrecoverable, it can potenitally make it uneconomical to recover it.

Environmentally I suppose that there is a slight change that this kill attempt could make things worse, but I'm sure sure how as BP are pretty deep in the doodoo with this already.

 

[magpies]

Ok so how does that have more value then 1 fish's life in the sea?

 

[xxChrisxx]

Ok so how does that have more value then 1 fish's life in the sea?

I couldn't possibly comment on that. I'm just telling you the some of the facts they would have considered and what will happen if a well is killed.

 

[magpies]

:( you nobody cares about the fish's :(

 

[DaveC426913]

Ok so how does that have more value then 1 fish's life in the sea?

Would you sacrifice your job for that one fish?

It may sound mercenary but a lot of innocent citizens depend on oil (including you) who will fall on hard times if the closure drives up the cost of oil.