Will BP's Top Kill Procedure Stop the Gulf Oil Spill?

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BP is currently evaluating a "top kill" procedure to contain the ongoing oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, with CEO Tony Hayward indicating a 60-70% chance of success. This method, previously successful in above-ground wells, has never been attempted at such depths. Concerns have been raised about the delays in implementing this solution, with suggestions that alternative methods could have been more effective. The discussion highlights the complexity of the situation, including the formation of methane hydrates in containment attempts and the economic and environmental ramifications of the spill. The potential long-term impact on local industries, particularly fishing and tourism, is significant, with estimates suggesting that the leak could continue for decades if not contained. The conversation reflects a mix of skepticism about BP's strategies and a desire for immediate action to mitigate the disaster's effects.
  • #51
I honestly don't agree a nuke would be a bad idea imo.

Heres my plan for fixing this if I was in charge... First I would stop the leak... If I could I'd just drop a big *** block of metal or cement onto the pipe and just hope it works. Then my next step would be to set the ocean on fire and burn all of the oil I can. Of course I would probably give a warning to people to get the hell away from the oil first but imo it be good to do this sooner then later. As for the rest of the oil or mess I'd just say nature can take care of it for now till I come up with an actual good plan. My plan probably would result in lots of people having to move away from the coast for awhile. That's probably gona happen anyhow tho so...
 
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  • #52
magpies said:
I honestly don't agree a nuke would be a bad idea imo.

Heres my plan for fixing this if I was in charge... First I would stop the leak... If I could I'd just drop a big *** block of metal or cement onto the pipe and just hope it works. Then my next step would be to set the ocean on fire and burn all of the oil I can. Of course I would probably give a warning to people to get the hell away from the oil first but imo it be good to do this sooner then later. As for the rest of the oil or mess I'd just say nature can take care of it for now till I come up with an actual good plan. My plan probably would result in lots of people having to move away from the coast for awhile. That's probably gona happen anyhow tho so...

What do you think they've been trying to do? The problem with this is that you have pressurised material, you simply can't just drop a large block of metal or concrete on it as it doesn't solve the problem. You need to stop or divert the flow of the oil, if you just put something heavy on top of it, the pressure would just build and build and blow it off. No matter how heavy you made it (there are practical limits to making and shifting something of the required size).
 
  • #53
Well it would have to be really really heavy then :/ I didn't say it was going to work I just said that's what I'd do. You really don't think sinking like the largest ship the navy has ontop of the pipe would stop it? You could even fill the ship with cement before hand.
 
  • #54
magpies said:
Well it would have to be really really heavy then :/ I didn't say it was going to work I just said that's what I'd do. You really don't think sinking like the largest ship the navy has ontop of the pipe would stop it?

It certainly wouldn't stop the leak. Sinking a large ship wouldn't create a seal, it's just put tons of **** on top of the problem. The problem is that if just dropped lots of tonnage on top of the pipe, the fluid can flow through any holes there are.
 
  • #55
I kinda thought it wouldn't work before I was thinking large block of metal but now that I thought about sinking something like an battleship ontop of it I think it could actually work. I mean its just gota cover up the hole where oil comes out right?
 
  • #56
magpies said:
I kinda thought it wouldn't work before I was thinking large block of metal but now that I thought about sinking something like an battleship ontop of it I think it could actually work. I mean its just gota cover up the hole where oil comes out right?

As much as putting your hand over a burst water main keeps water from coming out, or a plaster on arterial bleeding.

It's not just about 'covering the hole' you'd have to create a seal.
 
  • #57
The seal would be the bottom end of a billion ton battle ship. Ok so what could possibly make this seal iyo? Like currently I believe the plan was to use cement is that strong enough?

Oh sorry that wasnt your idea... never mind.
 
  • #58
magpies said:
The seal would be the bottom end of a billion ton battle ship. Ok so what could possibly make this seal iyo? Like currently I believe the plan was to use cement is that strong enough?

Oh sorry that wasnt your idea... never mind.

They believe a Nuke would seal the hole(s)
 
  • #59
magpies said:
The seal would be the bottom end of a billion ton battle ship. Ok so what could possibly make this seal iyo? Like currently I believe the plan was to use cement is that strong enough?

A seal means creating no leak path for the fluid to flow through, even a tiny crack will allow flow. Not only that a crack will get heaved apart from the pressure. If you drop of ship on it, there WILL be leak paths. Meaning it'll just take longer but the oil will just keep flowing. It also makes getting to the problem area int the future almost impossible as there is a honking great ship on top of it.

A billion tons? The biggest super arrier is on the order of 100k ton.

This is the reason BP are making such a fuss about the kill well, it really is the last option.

magpies said:
I mean your idea was to use a nuke... I hate to tell you this but a nuke that far under the ocean does almost nothing.

Not my idea bud. and frankly a nuke could possible work. You'd have to drop it down a well shaft but the detonatio would collapse a few million tons of rock on top of it. The good thing about rock and seabed is that the pessure and all the mud down there acutally will collapse the reserviour and crease a seal.

I can imagine it being pretty effing dangerous though.
 
  • #60
Ya sorry about that realized it wasn't your idea too late. Well honestly I don't think the kill well idea is going to work however I don't fully understand what they are doing or how. I mean if it's the last option and it doesn't work then we just wait 2 months for the relief well? How does the relief well even stop this? I just figured with that effort the goal was to get all the oil out is that correct?

I mean if it turns out kill well doesn't work would you be ok with some other option to try? I believe some farmers suggested using hay...

Oh ok so I wikied relief well and basically it's just the kill well plan at large scale hurm...
 
  • #61
magpies said:
Ya sorry about that realized it wasn't your idea too late. Well honestly I don't think the kill well idea is going to work however I don't fully understand what they are doing or how. I mean if it's the last option and it doesn't work then we just wait 2 months for the relief well? How does the relief well even stop this? I just figured with that effort the goal was to get all the oil out is that correct

Oil isn't sitting in a big liquid pool, it's a colliod with the porus rock. Much in the same way water is with grit in quicksand. What a kill well does is pump mud **** and concrete down the well. This gets into the prous rock, sets and stops oil from 'seeping' from the rock.

The reason it's called a kill well, is that once you do it. It's highly likely that the well will never flow oil again. It's sometimes possible, to get a killed well reflowing you have to pump some faily nasty chemicals and explosives down into the reservoir.

What a relief well would do is divert the oil flow away from the broken pipe to be collected elsewehre.
 
  • #62
Hurm I just read a wiki article about the oil spill that happened in the 60s that was similar to this one. They finally fixed it after 10 months with a relief well so...
 
  • #63
xxChrisxx said:
Oil isn't sitting in a big liquid pool, it's a colliod with the porus rock. Much in the same way water is with grit in quicksand. What a kill well does is pump mud **** and concrete down the well. This gets into the prous rock, sets and stops oil from 'seeping' from the rock.

The reason it's called a kill well, is that once you do it. It's highly likely that the well will never flow oil again. It's sometimes possible, to get a killed well reflowing you have to pump some faily nasty chemicals and explosives down into the reservoir.

What a relief well would do is divert the oil flow away from the broken pipe to be collected elsewehre.

Correct me if I'm wrong but, thy can always drill another well, right? We're killing the well, not the reservoir.

Doesn't mean it won't be expensive, having to start again from scratch.
 
  • #64
DaveC426913 said:
Correct me if I'm wrong but, thy can always drill another well, right? We're killing the well, not the reservoir.

Doesn't mean it won't be expensive, having to start again from scratch.

It really depends, it's a bit of an unknown how much will be lost(hence high risk). You will certainly lose yield around the site. Depending on the nature of the reservoir conditions.

I suppose saying the entire thing will be unsuable is a bit of an overstatement. I misspoke, I didn't mean the entire field, as they can be huge. But that small section will probably be unsable. I'm still fairly new to the oil and gas industry, I should have taken a greater interest in this but I didn't.
 
  • #65
I don't really see why it's a part of the equation? What does it matter if the well is closed or not?
 
  • #66
magpies said:
I don't really see why it's a part of the equation? What does it matter if the well is closed or not?

By killing the well, you are effectively concreting part of the reserviour. Meaning that of the 50million barrels left in there. A certain percentage of that will become competely unrecoverable, a ceritan percentage recoverable be reviving the well and some will be untouched. I can't give you figures, as I simply don't know. It also means a new well system needs to be put in place, which is massively expensive.

So depending on the estimates of how much of the oil becomes unrecoverable, it can potenitally make it uneconomical to recover it.

Environmentally I suppose that there is a slight change that this kill attempt could make things worse, but I'm sure sure how as BP are pretty deep in the doodoo with this already.
 
  • #67
Ok so how does that have more value then 1 fish's life in the sea?
 
  • #68
magpies said:
Ok so how does that have more value then 1 fish's life in the sea?

I couldn't possibly comment on that. I'm just telling you the some of the facts they would have considered and what will happen if a well is killed.
 
  • #69
:( you nobody cares about the fish's :(
 
  • #70
magpies said:
Ok so how does that have more value then 1 fish's life in the sea?

Would you sacrifice your job for that one fish?

It may sound mercenary but a lot of innocent citizens depend on oil (including you) who will fall on hard times if the closure drives up the cost of oil.
 
  • #71
Would you sacrifice that one fish for your job?

Believe me when I say hard times happen the best you can do is prepair for that day.
 
  • #72
BREAKING NEWS:

Just seen a new's flash on Sky News & BBC - BP have said it's all gone to plan, the Oil has stopped, and it's just mud flowing out of it now...

This is great news (if it holds) - Now for the clean up :(


As I type this I have just read conflicting reports... The reports might not be true, or at least premature... May be a false alarm, hoping it's not.

UPDATE: BP Denies Significant Improvement In Oil Leak...

UPDATE: A tweet from BP denied improvement in the leak:"Top kill" operations continued over the night & are ongoing. There are no significant events to report at this time.
The tweet was sent at 8:43 a.m., precisely when the LA Times published its article.

Damn... Someone getting peoples hopes up!
 
  • #74
lol, so did this thing succeed or fail? Or just not succeed yet? I can't get the live feed to load on my laptop so I have no idea what it looks like at this moment in time.
 
  • #75
Looks like it's worked, something could still potentially go wrong, but I think the most risky part is over.
 
  • #76
xxChrisxx said:
Looks like it's worked, something could still potentially go wrong, but I think the most risky part is over.

Im not buying that - not until I see nothing coming out - then it worked. Check this screenshot.

http://www.digitaloutpost.net/oil/compare.jpg"

Also...

http://i876.photobucket.com/albums/ab322/dorothytoto22/comparecopy.jpg"
 
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  • #77
Drilling mud looks very much the same as oil when it's bein gforced through by pressure. It will look like that until they start sealing by pumping down cement. So it's liekly to be a cuple of days or so.

Pressure readings in the wellhead will tell if the oil has stopped flowing. The problem is that the BOP can still rupture.
 
  • #78
The images posted by Glennage from today look exactly the same as the leak did last night when I went to check if it had stopped yet :-p.

I'm slightly skeptical of BPs announcements considering it appears to me they don't exactly place 'honesty first'...
 
  • #79
With crude oil being rather viscous stuff, wouldn't the pressure right at the wellhead be significantly lower then at the reservoir several miles below as long as it is uncapped? Once it's capped, what kind of time period will it take for the backpressure to maximize at the wellhead? Even if the mud has formed a seal at the moment, is there a significant chance that later on it will not be able to hold back the higher pressure?
 
  • #80
DnD Addict said:
... is there a significant chance that later on it will not be able to hold back the higher pressure?

That might explain the intended followup up with cement.
 
  • #81
From what I have heard, it will take ~100 hours to fully pump the mud. The theory seems sound, but we'll see. What else is to be done, nuke it like the Russians?!
 
  • #82
Glennage said:
Im not buying that - not until I see nothing coming out - then it worked. Check this screenshot.

http://www.digitaloutpost.net/oil/compare.jpg"
The pressure has clearly dropped in the 'after' picture in comparison with the 'before'. Then there's the dramatic color changes, whatever they mean.
 
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  • #83
They actually quit pumping mud last night around midnight [EDT, I think]. Pumping only resumed about an hour ago. They lied about it. Now they say it will be another 24-48 hours before we know.

BP just made a suspicious indirect allusion to a junk shot [literally, "bridging material"] - the next logical course of action if the top kill fails.

Late Edit: Now the story is that pumping was stoppped twice.
 
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  • #84
Why should they care they as a company can just claim some type of immunity after it's over and get off without paying much more then an actual dime. As I left in the morning there was a feed running from the well does anyone know if it's still up or replaced?
 
  • #85
magpies said:
Why should they care they as a company can just claim some type of immunity after it's over and get off without paying much more then an actual dime. As I left in the morning there was a feed running from the well does anyone know if it's still up or replaced?

Because they didn't want that to be the morning's headline. They were just dodging the bullet as long as they could to avoid the hassles. They released the news late today, and went home. If there is really bad news, I would bet, they will "put it out with the trash", as they say, and release it no sooner than late tomorrow. Friday night news tends to get buried.
 
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  • #86
Memorial day weekend in the USA, this is like releasing bad news on a friday and letting it simmer down over a weekend. Classic PR tactic.
 
  • #87
Geigerclick said:
Memorial day weekend in the USA, this is like releasing bad news on a friday and letting it simmer down over a weekend. Classic PR tactic.

Exactly right. This is starting to look horrific.
 
  • #88
T. Boone Pickens was on Larry King, tonight. Pickens claims that at 5000 feet, the top kill was a "long shot" all along.
 
  • #89
Ivan Seeking said:
T. Boone Pickens was on Larry King, tonight. Pickens claims that at 5000 feet, the top kill was a "long shot" all along.

I think it's fair to say, this isn't going to work, or it's failed already. BP are dragging things out - this is a very sad, sad situation. If it failed, we still have a ton of oil spilling out, combined with tons of toxic mud. Nice.

Also, check this out I found.. Actually quite moving.

http://video.godlikeproductions.com/video/Louisiana_congressman_cries_discussing_oil_spill"
 
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  • #90
Glennage said:
I think it's fair to say, this isn't going to work, or it's failed already. BP are dragging things out - this is a very sad, sad situation. If it failed, we still have a ton of oil spilling out, combined with tons of toxic mud. Nice.

Also, check this out I found.. Actually quite moving.

http://video.godlikeproductions.com/video/Louisiana_congressman_cries_discussing_oil_spill"

I don't know, I find his crying cheap and sleezy to get voters to side with him. Crying is not the appropriate reaction for someone in his position . Can you imagine if all the politicians started crying and leaving the room every time something happens? :rolleyes:
 
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  • #91
Cyrus said:
I don't know, I find his crying cheap and sleezy to get voters to side with him. Crying is not the appropriate reaction for someone in his position . Can you imagine if all the politicians started crying and leaving the room every time something happens? :rolleyes:

I don't believe it matters what position you are in. He is a Human, and that's it. It's an emotional time, the whole Economy of that area could be gone, it's a massive disaster.

Maybe it's just personal preference, but I find him to be genuine, and deeply upset about "His" home, "His" area, ruined, and gone.
 
  • #92
Glennage said:
I don't believe it matters what position you are in. He is a Human, and that's it. It's an emotional time, the whole Economy of that area could be gone, it's a massive disaster.

Maybe it's just personal preference, but I find him to be genuine, and deeply upset about "His" home, "His" area, ruined, and gone.

A leader is supposed to lead by example. Literally running out of a room crying does absolutely nothing to solve the problem. He should be busy making sure there is pressure on BP to do things correctly and in a timely matter, that's what his job is. Also, we still don't know the long term assessment of the damages yet. So, well have to see how the recovery goes.

I don't recall the Mayor of Louisiana crying during Katrina (unless I am failing to recall correctly). Nor is bobby Jindal, the governor crying about the oil spill right now.
 
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  • #93
Cyrus said:
A leader is supposed to lead by example. Literally running out of a room crying does absolutely nothing to solve the problem. He should be busy making sure there is pressure on BP to do things correctly and in a timely matter, that's what his job is. Also, we still don't know the long term assessment of the damages yet. So, well have to see how the recovery goes.

I don't recall the Mayor of Louisiana crying during Katrina (unless I am failing to recall correctly). Nor is bobby Jindal, the governor crying about the oil spill right now.

There is already TONS of pressure on BP - And not just from normal people, but the President of the United States himself, who has openly expressed his feelings and attitude towards BP.

I think your missing the point that the guy is just upset.
 
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  • #94
It must be tough for BP to pour so much money and effort into full court behind the back through the legs hooks shots trying to get this thing plugged. But they have to try and try even if it seems impossible.

Let's just hope they don't screw up drilling the relief well.
 
  • #95
HeLiXe said:
Does anyone know how far below the surface the well is?

Bad wording...I meant how far beneath the ocean floor the well is.
 
  • #96
Glennage said:
There is already TONS of pressure on BP - And not just from normal people, but the President of the United States himself, who has openly expressed his feelings and attitude towards BP.

I think your missing the point that the guy is just upset.

No, I get the point. What I'm saying is that -as a leader- he should be calm, cool, collected, and poised.
 
  • #97
Cyrus said:
No, I get the point. What I'm saying is that -as a leader- he should be calm, cool, collected, and poised.

Correct, but he is HUMAN.
 
  • #99
Cyrus said:
No, I get the point. What I'm saying is that -as a leader- he should be calm, cool, collected, and poised.

I don't care if he wets himself on the podium, I care about the oil and dispersants in the gulf, and what seems to be a harsh Atlantic hurricane season incoming. I'd cry too. I suppose we're not used to our leaders having functional consciences and a sense of loss, we're too used to borderline psychopaths. If Glenn Beck can weep on command, I can live with someone facing the death of the ecosystem in and around their district choking up.

Ugly: http://www.cnn.com/2010/US/05/28/gulf.oil.environment.disaster/index.html?hpt=Sbin
 
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  • #100
Glennage said:
Take a look at this for Oil Damage...

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/subsets/?subset=USA7.2010147.aqua.1km"
Where is the oil damage?

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/subsets/?subset=USA7.2010147.aqua.721.1km

There is some oil that has reached some marshland, but it appears that the oil problem is still out in the gulf where it is affecting wildlife.

This just in a few minutes ago
And on Friday, he interrupted a Memorial Day weekend stay with his family at their Chicago home for the Gulf visit, with his first stop a beach where absorbent booms and sandbags have been laid for miles to try to keep more oil from washing ashore.

No oil could be seen in the water during Obama's helicopter ride from New Orleans, over Louisiana bayous, to Port Fourchon down the coast from Grand Isle.

That changed when he arrived at Fourchon Beach, however.

A shirt-sleeved Obama walked to the water's edge, stooping as Adm. Thad Allen of the Coast Guard explained what he was seeing.

The beach, sealed off with crime-scene-style yellow tape, is one of the few sandy stretches on Louisiana's coast, where most is marshland. Obama called reporters traveling with him to the water's edge and picked up a few pebble-sized tar balls. No other oil was visible.

"These are the tarballs that they're talking about," he said. "You can actually send out teams to pick up as they wash on shore.

It has a video.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100528/ap_on_bi_ge/us_obama_gulf_oil_spill
 
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