Will BP's Top Kill Procedure Stop the Gulf Oil Spill?

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BP is currently evaluating a "top kill" procedure to contain the ongoing oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, with CEO Tony Hayward indicating a 60-70% chance of success. This method, previously successful in above-ground wells, has never been attempted at such depths. Concerns have been raised about the delays in implementing this solution, with suggestions that alternative methods could have been more effective. The discussion highlights the complexity of the situation, including the formation of methane hydrates in containment attempts and the economic and environmental ramifications of the spill. The potential long-term impact on local industries, particularly fishing and tourism, is significant, with estimates suggesting that the leak could continue for decades if not contained. The conversation reflects a mix of skepticism about BP's strategies and a desire for immediate action to mitigate the disaster's effects.
  • #31
magpies said:
I saw a new cam view of the oil spill at cnn... Looks like a ton of oil coming out compared to the other feeds I have seen. However I already had factored for that in my head so wasn't that shocked. I'm still wondering how big the oilfield is?

there are several fields in the gulf, this is one. I don't know what field BP is in.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/14678206/

It is indeed a serious problem!


RonL

P.S. we can be thankful that a company as large as BP is the operator, even if it cost them several BILLON dollars, they have the funds and they can still recover their losses if they handle the disaster in a proper manor.

I have a conceren about how the cleanup is being restrained by too much thinking..by our leaders.
 
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  • #32
Ivan Seeking said:
Crud, the CEO of BP is saying that we won't know if this will work for 24 hours. Allegedly, so far, so good.

OK, so 48 hours in total then.

24 hours for his thumbs up. Then another 24 hours before independent confirmation that he's lying.

:biggrin:
 
  • #33
DaveC426913 said:
OK, so 48 hours in total then.

24 hours for his thumbs up. Then another 24 hours before independent confirmation that he's lying.

:biggrin:

I have this sinking sense that the effort has already failed; that they are just going to keep trying for 24 hours. Not only was I under the impression that we should know in a few hours, apparently so was Congress. They too were watching and waiting for results. At about the four-hour mark, the CEO came on tv and made his announcment that we won't know for 24 hours. I strongly suspect that was code for "failure"; at least for the first attempt.

Ugh, I hope I'm wrong. They still have more possible fixes, but this was touted as having the best chance of success.
 
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  • #34
The expert interviewed here is still "cautiously optimistic". He states that a lot of mud is being blown out by the oil and gas, but it sounds as though there might be a chance that enough will accumulate with time to finally kill the well. The interview starts at the 4:00 mark.

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/environment/jan-june10/oil1_05-26.html
 
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  • #35
I saw a diagram of how they pump the stuff in and was wondering if it would work better if they just dumped it straight down into it.
 
  • #36
DaveC426913 said:
OK, so 48 hours in total then.

24 hours for his thumbs up. Then another 24 hours before independent confirmation that he's lying.

:biggrin:

Oh yes... your baseless slander is good for at least one "Biggrin"
.
 
  • #37
tyroman said:
Oh yes... your baseless slander is good for at least one "Biggrin"
.

How is it baseless and how is it slander?
Has he not demonstrated this behaviour enough already this week?


You're right. I only suggested he'd holding back for a day. To be accurate, I should have said a month (April 22 to May 21).
 
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  • #38
I was wondering what top kill is exactly:
Engineers worked through Tuesday night to prepare for the "top kill" procedure, running diagnostic and other tests to ensure that conditions were right. The effort involves injecting dense drilling mud into the blown-out wellhead and then sealing it with cement.

After receiving the go-ahead from the Obama administration, BP started pumping the heavy mixture at 1 pm central time. Several hundred engineers in Houston have prepared for the effort for weeks. It has been done before, but never at the 5,000-foot depth of the BP leak, and officials have cautioned that there is no guarantee of success.

If executed incorrectly, it could even increase the flow of oil, which has poured into the gulf for more than a month. The spill has tainted tens of thousands of square miles of water and washed up on 100 miles of Louisiana shoreline.

From the LA Times http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/greenspace/2010/05/gulf-oil-spill-results-of-top-kill-operation-wont-be-know-for-24-hours.html"

Ya so I know I have like 3 more calculus classes to go and 9 more physics classes in various areas before I know something...but from what I understand oil is made by constant grinding of rock against organic matter under tremendous amounts of pressure, I know they are taking the pressure of the ocean into consideration along with the materials and other pressures they are using to compact the well, but wouldn't it continue to flow until the pressure from within somewhat levels off with the pressure without, unless the force compacting it is greater than the force of the pressure from within? I cannot fathom that the drilling mud could be dense enough to compact the well...and are they using dry or wet cement? It doesn't seem as if it would work to me although I wish anything would.
 
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  • #39
I think wet cement as they are pumping it into the tube. I'm not sure about drilling mud but supposidly it was just ment to slow it down a little. If it was me I would just drop a 500 ton cement brick on the thing.
 
  • #40
mheslep said:
What sector? Fisheries? Oil drilling? Shallow water drilling, or just deep water drilling? Shore based oil drilling?

Fisheries, recreation, tourism (think beaches, wetlands parks, scuba diving...), shipping. I don't know if power plants for coastal cities use any of that water for cooling systems, but it seems likely.

If they can't fish in the Gulf, then not only are the people in that industry out of work, but the overall cost of fish is going to go up if there's less in the stores because it's only supplied from other places. In an economy where people are carefully watching their food budgets, if what is available is too expensive, people just might not be able to afford that food.

Nobody is minimizing the impact on the entire ecosystem (there's a lot more than just fish in that water) by commenting on the impact to the economy of the region and beyond.
 
  • #41
I was watching the gusher when the answer came to me. If we adjust the sample rate of the video, it would look like the crap is going *backwards*, back into the earth. Problem solved!

OK maybe not something to joke about :blushing:.
 
  • #42
Moonbear said:
, shipping.
How's that?
 
  • #43
Don't give bp any bright ideas!

Also is anyone else amazed that the gulf has not exploded yet via some dumb fisherman tossing a cigg into the water?
 
  • #44
magpies said:
I think wet cement as they are pumping it into the tube.

I guess that's why the live cam just looks like a mess with matter floating all around.

Does anyone know how far below the surface the well is?
 
  • #45
No clue I think it's near the bottom... 3000 ft?
 
  • #47
I think I brought this up earlyer kinda... I was wondering if the oil stench was going to be blow to where I am at the time I didn't think it would but now I got to wonder... Might be time to move back home up north.

Eh the wind seems to blow in cuba's direction I think :(
 
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  • #48
magpies said:
I think I brought this up earlyer kinda... I was wondering if the oil stench was going to be blow to where I am at the time I didn't think it would but now I got to wonder... Might be time to move back home up north.


I presume it would...

I thought we would have heard something by now about the Top Kill to see if it's working/worked - Just any kind of update...

They say no news is good news... But I am not so sure.
 
  • #49
Last time I checked the live feed on cnn it seemed to be doing the same thing however I did notice that the pipes seemed to change into the color white if that means anything...
 
  • #50
magpies said:
Don't give bp any bright ideas!...

I've heard an idea was floated to use a thermo nuclear device set almost on top of the well head. The idea was the resulting blast would form Trinitite and seal the well off. It would definitely be a bright idea.
 
  • #51
I honestly don't agree a nuke would be a bad idea imo.

Heres my plan for fixing this if I was in charge... First I would stop the leak... If I could I'd just drop a big *** block of metal or cement onto the pipe and just hope it works. Then my next step would be to set the ocean on fire and burn all of the oil I can. Of course I would probably give a warning to people to get the hell away from the oil first but imo it be good to do this sooner then later. As for the rest of the oil or mess I'd just say nature can take care of it for now till I come up with an actual good plan. My plan probably would result in lots of people having to move away from the coast for awhile. That's probably gona happen anyhow tho so...
 
  • #52
magpies said:
I honestly don't agree a nuke would be a bad idea imo.

Heres my plan for fixing this if I was in charge... First I would stop the leak... If I could I'd just drop a big *** block of metal or cement onto the pipe and just hope it works. Then my next step would be to set the ocean on fire and burn all of the oil I can. Of course I would probably give a warning to people to get the hell away from the oil first but imo it be good to do this sooner then later. As for the rest of the oil or mess I'd just say nature can take care of it for now till I come up with an actual good plan. My plan probably would result in lots of people having to move away from the coast for awhile. That's probably gona happen anyhow tho so...

What do you think they've been trying to do? The problem with this is that you have pressurised material, you simply can't just drop a large block of metal or concrete on it as it doesn't solve the problem. You need to stop or divert the flow of the oil, if you just put something heavy on top of it, the pressure would just build and build and blow it off. No matter how heavy you made it (there are practical limits to making and shifting something of the required size).
 
  • #53
Well it would have to be really really heavy then :/ I didn't say it was going to work I just said that's what I'd do. You really don't think sinking like the largest ship the navy has ontop of the pipe would stop it? You could even fill the ship with cement before hand.
 
  • #54
magpies said:
Well it would have to be really really heavy then :/ I didn't say it was going to work I just said that's what I'd do. You really don't think sinking like the largest ship the navy has ontop of the pipe would stop it?

It certainly wouldn't stop the leak. Sinking a large ship wouldn't create a seal, it's just put tons of **** on top of the problem. The problem is that if just dropped lots of tonnage on top of the pipe, the fluid can flow through any holes there are.
 
  • #55
I kinda thought it wouldn't work before I was thinking large block of metal but now that I thought about sinking something like an battleship ontop of it I think it could actually work. I mean its just gota cover up the hole where oil comes out right?
 
  • #56
magpies said:
I kinda thought it wouldn't work before I was thinking large block of metal but now that I thought about sinking something like an battleship ontop of it I think it could actually work. I mean its just gota cover up the hole where oil comes out right?

As much as putting your hand over a burst water main keeps water from coming out, or a plaster on arterial bleeding.

It's not just about 'covering the hole' you'd have to create a seal.
 
  • #57
The seal would be the bottom end of a billion ton battle ship. Ok so what could possibly make this seal iyo? Like currently I believe the plan was to use cement is that strong enough?

Oh sorry that wasnt your idea... never mind.
 
  • #58
magpies said:
The seal would be the bottom end of a billion ton battle ship. Ok so what could possibly make this seal iyo? Like currently I believe the plan was to use cement is that strong enough?

Oh sorry that wasnt your idea... never mind.

They believe a Nuke would seal the hole(s)
 
  • #59
magpies said:
The seal would be the bottom end of a billion ton battle ship. Ok so what could possibly make this seal iyo? Like currently I believe the plan was to use cement is that strong enough?

A seal means creating no leak path for the fluid to flow through, even a tiny crack will allow flow. Not only that a crack will get heaved apart from the pressure. If you drop of ship on it, there WILL be leak paths. Meaning it'll just take longer but the oil will just keep flowing. It also makes getting to the problem area int the future almost impossible as there is a honking great ship on top of it.

A billion tons? The biggest super arrier is on the order of 100k ton.

This is the reason BP are making such a fuss about the kill well, it really is the last option.

magpies said:
I mean your idea was to use a nuke... I hate to tell you this but a nuke that far under the ocean does almost nothing.

Not my idea bud. and frankly a nuke could possible work. You'd have to drop it down a well shaft but the detonatio would collapse a few million tons of rock on top of it. The good thing about rock and seabed is that the pessure and all the mud down there acutally will collapse the reserviour and crease a seal.

I can imagine it being pretty effing dangerous though.
 
  • #60
Ya sorry about that realized it wasn't your idea too late. Well honestly I don't think the kill well idea is going to work however I don't fully understand what they are doing or how. I mean if it's the last option and it doesn't work then we just wait 2 months for the relief well? How does the relief well even stop this? I just figured with that effort the goal was to get all the oil out is that correct?

I mean if it turns out kill well doesn't work would you be ok with some other option to try? I believe some farmers suggested using hay...

Oh ok so I wikied relief well and basically it's just the kill well plan at large scale hurm...
 

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