Will BP's Top Kill Procedure Stop the Gulf Oil Spill?

  • Thread starter Glennage
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In summary, BP is considering a "top kill" procedure to contain the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico but has not yet made a decision. This technique has a 60-70% chance of success but has never been tested at 5,000 feet underwater. Other methods, such as a containment box, have failed. BP may have been trying to preserve the well to finish rigging, but the current situation has likely forced them to pursue the "top kill" option. This was the last resort, as there is a risk that the well may not be able to be used again once killed. The long preparation time for this method may have delayed its implementation. However, the potential political and social consequences of not taking action may
  • #71
Would you sacrifice that one fish for your job?

Believe me when I say hard times happen the best you can do is prepair for that day.
 
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  • #72
BREAKING NEWS:

Just seen a new's flash on Sky News & BBC - BP have said it's all gone to plan, the Oil has stopped, and it's just mud flowing out of it now...

This is great news (if it holds) - Now for the clean up :(


As I type this I have just read conflicting reports... The reports might not be true, or at least premature... May be a false alarm, hoping it's not.

UPDATE: BP Denies Significant Improvement In Oil Leak...

UPDATE: A tweet from BP denied improvement in the leak:"Top kill" operations continued over the night & are ongoing. There are no significant events to report at this time.
The tweet was sent at 8:43 a.m., precisely when the LA Times published its article.

Damn... Someone getting peoples hopes up!
 
  • #74
lol, so did this thing succeed or fail? Or just not succeed yet? I can't get the live feed to load on my laptop so I have no idea what it looks like at this moment in time.
 
  • #75
Looks like it's worked, something could still potentially go wrong, but I think the most risky part is over.
 
  • #76
xxChrisxx said:
Looks like it's worked, something could still potentially go wrong, but I think the most risky part is over.

Im not buying that - not until I see nothing coming out - then it worked. Check this screenshot.

http://www.digitaloutpost.net/oil/compare.jpg"

Also...

http://i876.photobucket.com/albums/ab322/dorothytoto22/comparecopy.jpg"
 
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  • #77
Drilling mud looks very much the same as oil when it's bein gforced through by pressure. It will look like that until they start sealing by pumping down cement. So it's liekly to be a cuple of days or so.

Pressure readings in the wellhead will tell if the oil has stopped flowing. The problem is that the BOP can still rupture.
 
  • #78
The images posted by Glennage from today look exactly the same as the leak did last night when I went to check if it had stopped yet :-p.

I'm slightly skeptical of BPs announcements considering it appears to me they don't exactly place 'honesty first'...
 
  • #79
With crude oil being rather viscous stuff, wouldn't the pressure right at the wellhead be significantly lower then at the reservoir several miles below as long as it is uncapped? Once it's capped, what kind of time period will it take for the backpressure to maximize at the wellhead? Even if the mud has formed a seal at the moment, is there a significant chance that later on it will not be able to hold back the higher pressure?
 
  • #80
DnD Addict said:
... is there a significant chance that later on it will not be able to hold back the higher pressure?

That might explain the intended followup up with cement.
 
  • #81
From what I have heard, it will take ~100 hours to fully pump the mud. The theory seems sound, but we'll see. What else is to be done, nuke it like the Russians?!
 
  • #82
Glennage said:
Im not buying that - not until I see nothing coming out - then it worked. Check this screenshot.

http://www.digitaloutpost.net/oil/compare.jpg"
The pressure has clearly dropped in the 'after' picture in comparison with the 'before'. Then there's the dramatic color changes, whatever they mean.
 
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  • #83
They actually quit pumping mud last night around midnight [EDT, I think]. Pumping only resumed about an hour ago. They lied about it. Now they say it will be another 24-48 hours before we know.

BP just made a suspicious indirect allusion to a junk shot [literally, "bridging material"] - the next logical course of action if the top kill fails.

Late Edit: Now the story is that pumping was stoppped twice.
 
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  • #84
Why should they care they as a company can just claim some type of immunity after it's over and get off without paying much more then an actual dime. As I left in the morning there was a feed running from the well does anyone know if it's still up or replaced?
 
  • #85
magpies said:
Why should they care they as a company can just claim some type of immunity after it's over and get off without paying much more then an actual dime. As I left in the morning there was a feed running from the well does anyone know if it's still up or replaced?

Because they didn't want that to be the morning's headline. They were just dodging the bullet as long as they could to avoid the hassles. They released the news late today, and went home. If there is really bad news, I would bet, they will "put it out with the trash", as they say, and release it no sooner than late tomorrow. Friday night news tends to get buried.
 
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  • #86
Memorial day weekend in the USA, this is like releasing bad news on a friday and letting it simmer down over a weekend. Classic PR tactic.
 
  • #87
Geigerclick said:
Memorial day weekend in the USA, this is like releasing bad news on a friday and letting it simmer down over a weekend. Classic PR tactic.

Exactly right. This is starting to look horrific.
 
  • #88
T. Boone Pickens was on Larry King, tonight. Pickens claims that at 5000 feet, the top kill was a "long shot" all along.
 
  • #89
Ivan Seeking said:
T. Boone Pickens was on Larry King, tonight. Pickens claims that at 5000 feet, the top kill was a "long shot" all along.

I think it's fair to say, this isn't going to work, or it's failed already. BP are dragging things out - this is a very sad, sad situation. If it failed, we still have a ton of oil spilling out, combined with tons of toxic mud. Nice.

Also, check this out I found.. Actually quite moving.

http://video.godlikeproductions.com/video/Louisiana_congressman_cries_discussing_oil_spill"
 
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  • #90
Glennage said:
I think it's fair to say, this isn't going to work, or it's failed already. BP are dragging things out - this is a very sad, sad situation. If it failed, we still have a ton of oil spilling out, combined with tons of toxic mud. Nice.

Also, check this out I found.. Actually quite moving.

http://video.godlikeproductions.com/video/Louisiana_congressman_cries_discussing_oil_spill"

I don't know, I find his crying cheap and sleezy to get voters to side with him. Crying is not the appropriate reaction for someone in his position . Can you imagine if all the politicians started crying and leaving the room every time something happens? :rolleyes:
 
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  • #91
Cyrus said:
I don't know, I find his crying cheap and sleezy to get voters to side with him. Crying is not the appropriate reaction for someone in his position . Can you imagine if all the politicians started crying and leaving the room every time something happens? :rolleyes:

I don't believe it matters what position you are in. He is a Human, and that's it. It's an emotional time, the whole Economy of that area could be gone, it's a massive disaster.

Maybe it's just personal preference, but I find him to be genuine, and deeply upset about "His" home, "His" area, ruined, and gone.
 
  • #92
Glennage said:
I don't believe it matters what position you are in. He is a Human, and that's it. It's an emotional time, the whole Economy of that area could be gone, it's a massive disaster.

Maybe it's just personal preference, but I find him to be genuine, and deeply upset about "His" home, "His" area, ruined, and gone.

A leader is supposed to lead by example. Literally running out of a room crying does absolutely nothing to solve the problem. He should be busy making sure there is pressure on BP to do things correctly and in a timely matter, that's what his job is. Also, we still don't know the long term assessment of the damages yet. So, well have to see how the recovery goes.

I don't recall the Mayor of Louisiana crying during Katrina (unless I am failing to recall correctly). Nor is bobby Jindal, the governor crying about the oil spill right now.
 
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  • #93
Cyrus said:
A leader is supposed to lead by example. Literally running out of a room crying does absolutely nothing to solve the problem. He should be busy making sure there is pressure on BP to do things correctly and in a timely matter, that's what his job is. Also, we still don't know the long term assessment of the damages yet. So, well have to see how the recovery goes.

I don't recall the Mayor of Louisiana crying during Katrina (unless I am failing to recall correctly). Nor is bobby Jindal, the governor crying about the oil spill right now.

There is already TONS of pressure on BP - And not just from normal people, but the President of the United States himself, who has openly expressed his feelings and attitude towards BP.

I think your missing the point that the guy is just upset.
 
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  • #94
It must be tough for BP to pour so much money and effort into full court behind the back through the legs hooks shots trying to get this thing plugged. But they have to try and try even if it seems impossible.

Let's just hope they don't screw up drilling the relief well.
 
  • #95
HeLiXe said:
Does anyone know how far below the surface the well is?

Bad wording...I meant how far beneath the ocean floor the well is.
 
  • #96
Glennage said:
There is already TONS of pressure on BP - And not just from normal people, but the President of the United States himself, who has openly expressed his feelings and attitude towards BP.

I think your missing the point that the guy is just upset.

No, I get the point. What I'm saying is that -as a leader- he should be calm, cool, collected, and poised.
 
  • #97
Cyrus said:
No, I get the point. What I'm saying is that -as a leader- he should be calm, cool, collected, and poised.

Correct, but he is HUMAN.
 
  • #99
Cyrus said:
No, I get the point. What I'm saying is that -as a leader- he should be calm, cool, collected, and poised.

I don't care if he wets himself on the podium, I care about the oil and dispersants in the gulf, and what seems to be a harsh Atlantic hurricane season incoming. I'd cry too. I suppose we're not used to our leaders having functional consciences and a sense of loss, we're too used to borderline psychopaths. If Glenn Beck can weep on command, I can live with someone facing the death of the ecosystem in and around their district choking up.

Ugly: http://www.cnn.com/2010/US/05/28/gulf.oil.environment.disaster/index.html?hpt=Sbin
 
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  • #100
Glennage said:
Take a look at this for Oil Damage...

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/subsets/?subset=USA7.2010147.aqua.1km"
Where is the oil damage?

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/subsets/?subset=USA7.2010147.aqua.721.1km

There is some oil that has reached some marshland, but it appears that the oil problem is still out in the gulf where it is affecting wildlife.

This just in a few minutes ago
And on Friday, he interrupted a Memorial Day weekend stay with his family at their Chicago home for the Gulf visit, with his first stop a beach where absorbent booms and sandbags have been laid for miles to try to keep more oil from washing ashore.

No oil could be seen in the water during Obama's helicopter ride from New Orleans, over Louisiana bayous, to Port Fourchon down the coast from Grand Isle.

That changed when he arrived at Fourchon Beach, however.

A shirt-sleeved Obama walked to the water's edge, stooping as Adm. Thad Allen of the Coast Guard explained what he was seeing.

The beach, sealed off with crime-scene-style yellow tape, is one of the few sandy stretches on Louisiana's coast, where most is marshland. Obama called reporters traveling with him to the water's edge and picked up a few pebble-sized tar balls. No other oil was visible.

"These are the tarballs that they're talking about," he said. "You can actually send out teams to pick up as they wash on shore.

It has a video.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100528/ap_on_bi_ge/us_obama_gulf_oil_spill
 
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  • #101
Glennage said:
I think it's fair to say, this isn't going to work, or it's failed already.
Based on what? Just the amount of time taken by the process so far?

combined with tons of toxic mud. Nice.
Would you have a reference by chance on the toxicity of the 'mud'?
 
  • #102
mheslep said:
Based on what? Just the amount of time taken by the process so far?

Would you have a reference by chance on the toxicity of the 'mud'?

From what I understand it takes at least 100 hours to finish the mud portion of the top kill, so calling it a failure now cannot be supported; Glennage is clearly mistaken.

The drilling mud is nasty stuff however:

http://news.discovery.com/tech/how-bps-top-kill-will-work-we-hope.html
http://www.formatebrines.com/

Water or oil based, it usually contains Barite, or Cesium.

Hayward stated they are using a water base, which means that it is likely this mud:
http://www.freepatentsonline.com/3962099.html

It's nasty stuff, but compared to at least 11 million gallons of crude and over 600 thousand of dispersants, if it works, it would be worth it. If not, it'a 50,000+ pounds of toxic and sometimes mildly radioactive mud.
 
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  • #103
Evo said:
Where is the oil damage?

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/subsets/?subset=USA7.2010147.aqua.721.1km

There is some oil that has reached some marshland, but it appears that the oil problem is still out in the gulf where it is affecting wildlife.

This just in a few minutes ago


It has a video.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100528/ap_on_bi_ge/us_obama_gulf_oil_spill

Here is damage, tourism is drying up where there is no oil yet! If a hurricane does drive it inland, you'd think people would want to enjoy this region NOW. That is real harm to people, albeit not of an environmental variety.
 
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  • #104
Cyrus said:
I don't know, I find his crying cheap and sleezy to get voters to side with him. Crying is not the appropriate reaction for someone in his position . Can you imagine if all the politicians started crying and leaving the room every time something happens? :rolleyes:

Nothing like this has ever happened. It is now officially the biggest environmental disaster in US history. The Congressman from La. is a man watching his home being destroyed. If I were him, I'd probably be in tears as well.

Obama is a rock. Back in '08, even when his campaign was in big trouble and his staff was panicking, Obama was like ice.

Edit: I'm confused. Who did you mean; whose crying? T. Boone Pickens?
 
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  • #105
Geigerclick said:
... If not, it'a 50,000+ pounds of toxic and sometimes mildly radioactive mud.

I hope you realize that the drilling mud itself is not radioactive. If it dose get a radiological signature it is because of radioactive isotopes and elements that it picks up from the bore hole. In other words the radiation is natural, because we live on a hot planet.
 

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