Will past personal issues affect Obama's 2012 campaign?

[D H]

Does candidate Romney have a point?

He would have a point had the Republicans not explicitly asked Obama to keep his nose out of the process. Now that the super committee has failed, Obama should stick his nose in the process. Romney will have a point if that doesn't happen.

 

[WhoWee]

He would have a point had the Republicans not explicitly asked Obama to keep his nose out of the process. Now that the super committee has failed, Obama should stick his nose in the process. Romney will have a point if that doesn't happen.

I think you're giving the Republicans too much credit.

 

[turbo]

I think you're giving the Republicans too much credit.

'Way too much credit, IMO. They are a party desperately in search of a candidate. The major problem is that they have been hijacked by the Tea Party, and if we can gauge by the major media, they have nobody that is electable in the primaries, apart from the loons, and none of those nuts are electable in the general election. Elections are transitory, and the GOP is ceding this one, IMO. I don't know why, but the GOP has folded.

 

[lisab]

Way too much credit, IMO. They are a party desperately in search of a candidate. The major problem is that they have been hijacked by the Tea Party, and if we can gauge by the major media, they have nobody that is electable in the primaries, apart from the loons, and none of those nuts are electable in the general election. Elections are transitory, and the GOP is ceding this one, IMO. I don't know why, but the GOP has folded.

It is pretty remarkable, the weakness of the field. But I think Romney has a chance of winning the general -- assuming he can win the primary.

 

[turbo]

It is pretty remarkable, the weakness of the field. But I think Romney has a chance of winning the general -- assuming he can win the primary.

Romney might have a chance in the general, but are the GOP primary-voters going to get behind a Universal Health-Care, tax-raising, NE liberal? I predict that Newt's supporters are going to scream "liberal" all the way to the caucuses, to the point at which Mitt is too tainted to get the nomination. Romney has been cautious and has kept his head down in the Republican debates, but he'll have to break that pattern to have any chance of getting the nomination.

 

[mege]

Romney has (both)-Bush-like Neo-con qualities. He is the 'comprimised' version of what conservatives will accept, mostly because I think the GOP is smart enough to know that classic republican austerity-platformed candidates will never win the general. Voters are just too greedy and follow along with the bread-crumb trail that washington has provided the past few century. Compassionate conservativism and the neo-con mentality resonates with those seeking austerity with some egalitarian measures. I think most voters recognize the practical 'non choice' in picking a moderate candidate against the current manchurian President.

I think Newt Gingrich is too ugly and too muddied to be a successful candidate. His past scandals and 'entrenched' Washington mentality are going to be his downfall. He's playing the game well, but that's about it. Herman Cain is the opposite in nearly every regard - he's not playing the game well enough and is getting buried by the career politicians.

 

[mheslep]

...
I think Newt Gingrich is too ugly and too muddied to be a successful candidate. His past scandals and 'entrenched' Washington mentality are going to be his downfall. He's playing the game well, but that's about it.

Obama had a 14 point lead over a theoretical Gingrich candidacy. Now the lead is 7 points.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_gingrich_vs_obama-1453.html

 

[Vanadium 50]

It is pretty remarkable, the weakness of the field.

I remember similar sentiments about the 1992 Democratic ticket. Time Magazine referred to the candidates as the Seven Dwarfs. One of them went on to 8 years in the White House.

 

[russ_watters]

Near as I can tell, that was actually 1988, but it has been recycled several times. Here's a July 2007 article referring to "Hillary and the Seven Dwarfs", for example...

http://www.nysun.com/opinion/hillary-and-the-seven-dwarfs/59097/

 

[Vanadium 50]

It probably goes back to whenever the movie was released. But 1992 is maybe the most relevant example.

 

[Vanadium 50]

Josh Kraushaar has a very interesting piece in the National Journal, titled "Team Obama's Pathway to 270".

It means that, despite the spin they're focused at winning every state, they feel that their best chance of securing 270 electoral votes is through the upscale, white-collar coalition that propelled Obama to victory in 2008 - one I outlined in my column earlier this month. It explains the administration's decision to punt on the Keystone XL pipeline, for fear of alienating environmentalists that make up an important constituency in many of these states.

Essentially, Kraushaar is arguing that the President needs to win VA, NC, NV, and CO at the expense of OH, PA, IA and IN: essentially, appealing to the White College-Educated slice and giving up on the White Working Class slice, which makes up about 25% of the voters. (Which he lost by 18 points in 2008.) This demographic, composed of bitter people who "cling to their guns and religion" has never really warmed to the President, and indeed the Democrats lost this demographic by 30 points in 2010.

This is Joe Biden's bread and butter. Unfortunately, the Vice-President can't open his mouth without sticking his foot in it, so I don't expect him to be any more (or less) help than he was in 2008 or 2010.

This group has not warmed to Mitt Romney either. On the other hand, Romney polls well in VA, NC, etc. and may be able to slice off some of the White College-Educated voters. If one accepts Romney as inevitable, a VP with appeal to the WWC would be a smart move. Someone like Walter B. Jones (R-NC3). The President won NC by only 14,000 votes in 2008.

 

[turbo]

It's hard to see Romney or Huntsman capturing the nomination, since the Tea Party has driven the GOP so far right. I think all Obama has to do is sit tight, and campaign against the do-nothing Congress. Newt may be the flavor of the month, but he is unelectable against Obama, IMO. If he wins the nomination, I think women will defect the GOP in droves. He divorced his first wife while she was being treated for cancer, and he divorced his second wife after she was diagnosed with MS, all the while having affairs.

Michelle Obama is a pretty inspiring First Lady. Callista Gingrich? Not so much. I think these issues actually matter to women. We men don't always tune into this stuff all that well, but about 10 months from now we'll see how Newt deals with his baggage. I think it will sink him.

 

[mheslep]

...
Essentially, Kraushaar is arguing that the President needs to win VA, ...

The President carried the Virginia in 2008. Now the state is as near to a 2012 GOP lock is it can be, for whatever my feel on the ground is worth. In 2008 an extraordinarily highly motivated Democratic leaning, college educated, and densely populated northern Va carried the remainder of the state. That Democratic fire has dimmed now, turned to melancholy. Actions like postponing the Keystone pipeline won't relight the fire. For actual evidence of trend, we have McDonnell (R) winning the governors race by 18 points in 2009, the highest margin since '61, switching the office from the Democrats in the prior term.

 

[mheslep]

He divorced his first wife while she was being treated for cancer, ...

She asked him for the divorce, according to the daughter. Marital affairs did not keep voters decisively away from Clinton in '96.
http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/co...-divorce-his-first-wife-while-she-had-cancer/