Wordle Lovers - Play the NYT Daily Game

[Orodruin]

If the Wordle editor is a New Yorker, SANDY could be a negative reminder of the hurricane.

Am I the only one who doesn’t like sand between the toes?

which (of the two or three) choices is "more positive

Even so, if it is the case you should be able to split the word list in positive/negative and then check the relative rates. If positive is more likely relatively then the relative rate should be higher.

 

[jack action]

Wordle 1,230 3/6

[DRONE] 8 left
[DAILY] filter - 1 left
[WEIRD]

---

No, it is not. I quoted one of your posts explicitly claiming that you are selecting the correct answers at a higher rate than random. This is what I am arguing against. I have also questioned your assertion that a word you selected should be more likely to be selected in some instances.

I'm tired of this. I decided to waste my time and did the math to show you what I knew informally in the hope of ending all of this.

Going back to my previous posts where I'm sure I used the method of most-probable-word-to-be-selected-by-a-human-according-to-my-very-subjective-criteria I found 45 puzzles out of the last 102^[1] puzzles I did:

Where I was right (34 total):
1129-1130-1132-1134-1135-1136-1141-1142-1144-1178-1185-1187-1188-1189-1190-1191-1192-1194-1195-1196-1197-1198-1199-1201-1202-1203-1204-1206-1210-1218-1220-1221-1222-1229

Where I was wrong (11 total):
1137-1140-1182-1193-1200-1207-1209-1216-1217-1225-1227

That is a 75,6/24,4 chance of getting it right which is better than 50/50 for pure randomness.

It may change over time but for this sample of 45 puzzles, I'm satisfied enough to continue exploring this avenue - thus my statement (as opposed to claim):

I'll keep selecting the right answer more often than not until proven otherwise.

This is as much math and data gathering as I will do to "prove" what I know informally. If and when I reach a 50/50 ratio, I'll know it by "feel" and stop using this method or at the very least modify it. That is what "proven otherwise" means in my statement (again, not a claim).

Logging my word selection process in this thread is to help me get a "feel" as I don't want to do formal data gathering (in a spreadsheet, for example). I know I'll get crazy about it if I do. Doing it this way gives me a good sense to help me keep track of my progress informally such that it stays fun and doesn't feel like a job. If someone doesn't like my comments, they can be ignored as they are the equivalent of words written on a napkin, for my eyes only.

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[1] It includes 32 puzzles (1146-1177) where I stopped commenting, out of respect for the OP, after the OP made this post:

And I personally dislike "x possibilities left" comments. I don't want to know who is cheating.

I started again when he announced he left PF. So I don't know how many times the method was used during that period and how often it was successful or not.

 

[Orodruin]

I'm tired of this. I decided to waste my time and did the math to show you what I knew informally in the hope of ending all of this.

Doing the actual science to prove your claims is never a waste of time. At least not if you want people to believe you. This is a science forum after all. It is literally part of my job to be sceptical until statements are proven beyond reasonable doubt. That includes doing the math.

Where I was right (34 total):
1129-1130-1132-1134-1135-1136-1141-1142-1144-1178-1185-1187-1188-1189-1190-1191-1192-1194-1195-1196-1197-1198-1199-1201-1202-1203-1204-1206-1210-1218-1220-1221-1222-1229

Where I was wrong (11 total):
1137-1140-1182-1193-1200-1207-1209-1216-1217-1225-1227

Ok, compiling data. That is good, but to make the statement solid you will need more than:

That is a 75,6/24,4 chance of getting it right which is better than 50/50 for pure randomness.

These are your sample mean and expectation from randomness. In themselves, they do not hold any statistical power. What you need to compute is the probability of this (or a more extreme result) occurring by chance if it were random. Essentially all you need to do now is to look at the CDF of the binomial distribution. It is literally the least tedious step in all of this.

 

[dwarde]

Wordle 1,230 3/6

 

[gmax137]

Am I the only one who doesn’t like sand between the toes?

Nope. Have a listen to Ali Baba's Camel, by the Bonzos

EDIT:

 

[jack action]

to prove your claims

I'm not claiming anything.

At least not if you want people to believe you.

I don't.

but to make the statement solid

I don't care. I'm just having fun.

In themselves, they do not hold any statistical power.

Why am I not surprised that not only do you think that but you also need to share this opinion?

What you need to compute is the probability of this (or a more extreme result) occurring by chance if it were random. Essentially all you need to do now is to look at the CDF of the binomial distribution.

The data was always available to everyone and I have now identified it for you. You are more than welcome to do any analysis you wish to prove your claim.

It is literally the least tedious step in all of this.

I'm glad it will be easy for you to do.

Finally, the message may be easier to understand with a song:

​

 

[gmax137]

Let's please not get this thread closed, ok?

 

[Orodruin]

I'm not claiming anything.

That in itself is a claim. And you have definitely claimed that you are selecting the correct answer more than the expectation from random. I have already quoted several such instances so I will not bother to do so again.

I don't.

Then don’t get upset if they don’t.

Why am I not surprised that not only do you think that but you also need to share this opinion?

Because that is how science works and this is a science forum.

The data was always available to everyone and I have now identified it for you. You are more than welcome to do any analysis you wish to prove your claim.

That’s not how science works. You are so close yet you - yes you - choose hand waving instead of making a scientifically sound claim. That is what bothers me. I couldn’t care less if your actual hypothesis is true or not.

 

[Orodruin]

Let's please not get this thread closed, ok?

Apart from the snide remarks of @jack action the discussion is relevant to Wordle. Proving the hypothesis would be relevant. They are so close.

 

[Orodruin]

Wordle 1 231 2/6

 

[jack action]

Wordle 1,231 3/6

[IRATE] 12 left
[HEXYL] filter - 1 left
[SIXTH]

 

[kuruman]

Wordle 1,231 3/6

 

[OmCheeto]

Wordle 1,231 3/6

 

[dwarde]

Wordle 1,231 3/6

 

[gmax137]

Wordle 1,231 3/6

 

[kuruman]

Wordle 1,232 4/6



Anagram!

 

[jack action]

Wordle 1,232 4/6

[BLAST] 78 left
[IRONE] filter - 2 left: SNOOP SNOWY
[SNOWY] most probable
[SNOOP]

most-probable method count update (Success/Fail): 34/12 - 73.9%/26.1%

 

[OmCheeto]

Wordle 1,232 4/6

 

[gmax137]

Wordle 1,232 5/6

CHAIR
LOOSE this turned out to be a productive guess
STOOP
SWOOP "more positive" than -->
SNOOP

 

[dwarde]

I started out with one of those new fangled seed words, but it was a lucky guess that solved the puzzle.
Wordle 1,232 3/6

 

[jack action]

Wordle 1,233 4/6

[LATER] 15 left
[PINED] filter - 6 left ALGAE AMBLE BLAZE FECAL FELLA SHALE
[FABLE] filter - 1 left
[BLAZE]

 

[kuruman]

Wordle 1,233 4/6

 

[OmCheeto]

Wordle 1,233 4/6

 

[dwarde]

Wordle 1,233 3/6

 

[Orodruin]

Wordle 1 234 3/6

 

[kuruman]

Wordle 1,234 3/6





Nicely symmetric.

 

[Orodruin]

Wordle 1 234 3/6

Wordle 1,234 3/6





Nicely symmetric.

I am jealous … so close for me …

 

[jack action]

Wordle 1,234 3/6

[SLAIN] 5 left: LYING VINYL LINGO LINER INLET
[LINGO] most probable and filter - 1 left
[VINYL]

My preferred words in order were: LINGO VINYL LINER INLET LYING. I hesitated between LINGO and VINYL as my first choice, but only the former was a filter word. I will still count it as a fail for guessing the right word.

most-probable method count update (Success/Fail): 34/13 - 72.3%/27.7%

 

[dwarde]

Wordle 1,234 4/6

 

[OmCheeto]

Wordle 1,234 4/6

 

[ChaseLess]

Wordle 1,235 4/6






#GuessTheAlbumCover #106

https://guesstheaudio.com/gtac/106

 

[Orodruin]

Wordle 1 235 3/6

 

[jack action]

Wordle 1,235 3/6

[PALER] 23 left
[STONY] filter - 1 left
[OCTET]

 

[kuruman]

Wordle 1,235 2/6

 

[OmCheeto]

Wordle 1,235 4/6

 

[dwarde]

A good guess always helps. Not a word that I use on a daily, monthly or even yearly basis although 50 years ago I was in one.
Wordle 1,235 3/6

 

[Orodruin]

Ah, symmetry!

Wordle 1 236 3/6

 

[ChaseLess]

Just some random guess and look where it got me lol

Wordle 1,236 1/6



#GuessTheAlbumCover #107

https://guesstheaudio.com/gtac/107

 

[kuruman]

Wordle 1,236 4/6

 

[jack action]

Wordle 1,236 3/6

[YEAST] 15 left
[UNITY] possible answer - most probable - filter: 1 left
[TRULY]

This one is an odd one for me. My 2nd guess filter word suggested was UNION. Noticing UNITY was one of the possible answers, not only I thought it would be a better filter but, due to the US election, I thought it could be the answer. So that's a fail for the most-probable method. (Although I would have never dared use this method alone on the 15 words I had left.)

But if I did select UNION as a filter, there would have been 2 left, PUTTY and TRULY. In that case, I would have selected TRULY without hesitation, so a win for the method I'm testing.

So I'll count this both as an additional fail and success.

most-probable method count update (Success/Fail): 35/14 - 71.4%/28.6%

 

[dwarde]

Wordle 1,236 4/6

 

[ChaseLess]

#GuessTheLogo #52
®
#LogoLearner
https://guessthelogo.wtf/p/52

Wordle 1,237 6/6

 

[Orodruin]

Wordle 1 237 5/6







I had it in 4. Wrote the wrong word …
Should stop solving at 4 am …

 

[jack action]

Wordle 1,237 3/6

[TANGO] 14 left
[YULES] filter -1 left
[EVENT]

 

[kuruman]

Wordle 1,237 3/6

 

[dwarde]

Aww nuts.
Wordle 1,237 5/6

 

[ChaseLess]

Wordle 1,238 3/6





#GuessTheLogo #53
®
#LogoLearner
https://guessthelogo.wtf/p/53

 

[Orodruin]

Wordle 1 238 3/6

 

[kuruman]

Wordle 1,238 3/6

 

[jack action]

Wordle 1,238 3/6

[MORAL] 67 left
[SNIDE] filter - 1 left
[READY]