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[OmCheeto]

Wordle 1,349 3/6

 

[jack action]

Wordle 1,349 3/6

[ARISE] 30 left
[GLUED] filter - 1 left
[LODGE]

 

[gmax137]

Wordle 1,349 3/6

SLANT
GROPE
LODGE

 

[dwarde]

Playing by the seat of my pants and I'm just about threadbare.

Wordle 1,349 5/6

 

[OmCheeto]

Wordle 1 349 3/6





Super-vanilla scenario. Seed leaves 29 possibilities. Best second guess (BULGE) with EER 0.98 pushes it down to one remaining.

I am starting to doubt the 4th and 5th rows of my sheet will ever be used …

One of these days I'm going to figure out how to implement your method. I think I've spent at least 40 hours scratching my head over what exactly you're doing.

In the meanwhile can you tell me if the numbers in the below spreadsheet look right. This will tell me if I'm on the right track.

Game 1,347
Solution: DRYER
Guess 1: PLIER
Guess 2: GOATS
leaving 6 words as possible solutions:

next guess	Average number of words left after play. Lowest score is best choice for next guess
dryer	1.400
defer	1.800
freer	1.800
buyer	2.200
queer	2.200
newer	3.400

 

[Orodruin]

One of these days I'm going to figure out how to implement your method. I think I've spent at least 40 hours scratching my head over what exactly you're doing.

It is quite simple actually. I described it in a post I don't know how long ago ...

I compute the expected entropy remaining (EER) for a possible guess $w$ by checking what pattern each remaining word wold result it if the guess was made. I end up with information about how many ($k$) patterns are possible and how many words $x_i$ would result in each pattern $i$. The remaining entropy if you have $N$ words left is defined as $\ln(N)$ and so the entropy remaining of you have $x_i$ words left is $s_i = \ln(x_i)$. The probability of ending up in bin $i$ is equal to $p_i = x_i/n$, where $n$ is the number of remaining words before the guess*. The EER for a guess is therefore given by$$
EER(w) = \sum_{i = 1}^k p_i s_i = \frac 1n \sum_{i = 1}^k x_i \ln(x_i).
$$
I compute the EER for every remaining word and return a sorted list with the guesses having the lowest EERs on top. I will then pick a guess that has a low EER. I will sometimes forego the lowest EER guess if another word with low EER sounds much more likely and the EER difference is not too high.

The backside of this is that there are way too many words left before making the first guess (computation time in Google sheets becomes prohibitive) so I am using ARISE as a permanent seed. It is the word I have found has the lowest EER currently. This may change over time though and I recheck this every now and then.


* This is assuming all words are equally probable - which they are not, but for the purpose of EER I am not bothering to make any correction for that. It is meant to be used as a tool. If two words get similar EER I will make a judgement call.

 

[OmCheeto]

It is quite simple actually. I described it in a post I don't know how long ago ...

Yes, I've read all those posts. Unfortunately, I don't understand your notation. But it doesn't matter. I'm pretty sure I get the gist of the idea.

Anyways, back to the game:

Wordle 1,350 4/6

 

[jack action]

Wordle 1,350 5/6

[ARISE] 73 left
[LOUSY] filter - 11 left: BUNNY DUMMY DUMPY FUZZY JUMPY MUDDY NUTTY PUDGY PUFFY PUPPY PUTTY
[DEMPT] filter - 2 left: BUNNY FUZZY
[BUNNY] 1 left
[FUZZY]

Will @Orodruin do this one in less than 4?

 

[Orodruin]

Will @Orodruin do this one in less than 4?

Thanks for the reminder ... Had a lot to do today so might have lost that streak otherwise ...

I guess we'll know soon.

 

[Orodruin]

Wordle 1 350 4/6






Nope, but the streak is alive!

 

[gmax137]

Wordle 1,350 5/6

 

[Orodruin]

That’s a lot of white!

 

[gmax137]

That’s a lot of white!

I think that's the most misses I have ever had. Too bad it wasn't eggs, they're running 6 to 9 USD/dozen here, two to three times what they "should be."

edit: in case you're curious, here's the words

Wordle 1,350 5/6

SLANT
GROPE
WHICH
MUDDY
FUZZY

 

[dwarde]

Wordle 1,350 5/6

 

[Orodruin]

Wordle 1 351 4/6

 

[OmCheeto]

Wordle 1,351 5/6

 

[jack action]

Wordle 1,351 4/6

[ARISE] 27 left
[DUROY] filter - 6 left: HOVER MOVER MOWER OFFER ROGER TOWER
[MOWER] filter - 2 left: HOVER ROGER
[HOVER] most probable

most-probable method count update (Success/Fail): 62/33 - 65.3%/34.7%

 

[dwarde]

Wordle 1,351 4/6

 

[Orodruin]

Wordle 1 352 2/6




Pretty nice one. 8 left after seed with DEITY and EYING both being perfect filters. Guaranteed solution in 3 and on top DEITY seemed like one of the more reasonable words left.

Statistics after 30 days of using the spreadsheet:
1: 0
2: 5
3: 15
4: 10
5: 0*
6: 0
X: 0

* I did have a couple of 5s, but those were due to human error so I’m not blaming the sheet for those.

In particular my rate of solutions in 2 has increased dramatically from about 2% to 17% …

 

[OmCheeto]

Wordle 1,352 3/6

 

[sbrothy]

Wordle 1.352 4/6*

Spoiler

Been a while....

 

[jack action]

Wordle 1,352 3/6

[ARISE] 8 left - DEIGN DEITY EDIFY EKING EVICT EYING PLIED WEIGH
[EYING] filter - 1 left
[DEITY]

My program suggested DYING as a filter so I naturally went with EYING.

 

[Orodruin]

Wordle 1,352 3/6

[ARISE] 8 left - DEIGN DEITY EDIFY EKING EVICT EYING PLIED WEIGH
[EYING] filter - 1 left
[DEITY]

My program suggested DYING as a filter so I naturally went with EYING.

Both EYING and DEITY were perfect filters

 

[dwarde]

Wordle 1,352 4/6

 

[OmCheeto]

Wordle 1,353 4/6

 

[jack action]

Wordle 1,353 4/6

[ARISE] 5 left - SAFER SANER SHEAR SPEAR SWEAR
[SAFER] most probable - 3 left: SHEAR SPEAR SWEAR
[SWEAR] most probable - 2 left
[SPEAR] most probable

I could have had it with a guaranteed 4 with a proper filter as a 2nd guess (I would have got it in 3), but decided to try the most-probable technique. Meh.

most-probable method count update (Success/Fail): 63/35 - 64.3%/35.7%

 

[Orodruin]

Wordle 1 353 2/6




Ka-CHING!

but decided to try the most-probable technique

Me too! among the words guaranteeing a solution in 4

 

[OmCheeto]

Wordle 1 353 2/6




Ka-CHING!



Me too! among the words guaranteeing a solution in 4

Ok. Just DM me your bank deposit account number and I'll transfer whatever you request to take a look at your spreadsheet. I may not understand higher level mathspeaks, but I can decipher spreadsheetspeak quite well.

 

[dwarde]

My lame seed word finally paid off.

Wordle 1,353 2/6

 

[Orodruin]

Ok. Just DM me your bank deposit account number and I'll transfer whatever you request to take a look at your spreadsheet. I may not understand higher level mathspeaks, but I can decipher spreadsheetspeak quite well.

I am happy to let anyone have a look. I'll DM you a view-only link. If you want to make changes you can always create a personal copy.

 

[Orodruin]

Wordle 1 354 4/6






Missed the 50/50 in the end. Hard to pick one of them over the other …

 

[OmCheeto]

Wordle 1,354 4/6

I am happy to let anyone have a look. I'll DM you a view-only link. If you want to make changes you can always create a personal copy.

Thanks! I'll have a look. I pretty much figured out the basics, but I have to create a new spreadsheet for word lists of different sizes. So far I'm only up to 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, and 14. Just curious how big your lists can get.

 

[jack action]

Wordle 1,354 4/6

[ARISE] 55 left
[NOBLY] filter - 5 left: CHECK FETCH TEETH THEFT TWEET
[FETCH] filter + possible answer - 1 left
[CHECK]

 

[dwarde]

Wordle 1,354 4/6

 

[Orodruin]

Wordle 1 355 3/6

 

[OmCheeto]

Wordle 1,355 3/6





@Orodruin , I haven't completed the translation of your spreadsheet yet. Lots of boogers with a locked spreadsheet. I can't seem to gain access to what a appears to be some type of subroutine:

WORDLEMATCH(B$1,$A2)

Just completed making a copy for myself, so I may try and find it in the morning.

 

[Orodruin]

I can't seem to gain access to what a appears to be some type of subroutine:

WORDLEMATCH(B$1,$A2)

That is a scripted function I wrote on the side. In essence, it returns the number of the pattern for an assumed solution if you make a particular guess (I don’t remember which the order of the arguments is off the top of my head).

 

[jack action]

Wordle 1,355 3/6

[ARISE] 11 left
[POUTY] filter - 1 left
[SCRUM]

 

[OmCheeto]

That is a scripted function I wrote on the side. In essence, it returns the number of the pattern for an assumed solution if you make a particular guess (I don’t remember which the order of the arguments is off the top of my head).

What's really odd is that while my copy is editable and claims; "Unknown Function: 'WORDLEMATCH'."

The function is obviously working, as it's giving me legitimate values.
This is an analysis of game # 1,345 from 10 days ago.

OLD Wordle 1,345 4/6

SPORE 14(36) (53 WB)
DECOR 9(22) (27 WB)
FOWTH 1(2) (2 WB)
OTTER

Interesting that my second guess was the worst choice!
Obviously I was still using my old method.
But it's definitely going to take me at least a month to decipher the 'black box' of WORDLEMATCH.
I've mimicked it quite well with the exception of how to deal with double letters like in 'OTTER'.

Word	E(S)	EER	2^E(s)
TOWER	6.755	0.68	1.60
MOVER	8.755	0.88	1.83
MOWER	8.755	0.88	1.83
OTTER	10.000	1.00	2.00
HOVER	11.510	1.15	2.22
ODDER	13.610	1.36	2.57
ROGER	14.755	1.48	2.78
TENOR	15.510	1.55	2.93
OFFER	15.610	1.56	2.95
DECOR	19.651	1.97	3.90

 

[Orodruin]

This is an analysis of game # 1,345 from 10 days ago.

If you analyse old games you should remove the words that were not yet used back then from the used words tab.

Obviously I was still using my old method.
But it's definitely going to take me at least a month to decipher the 'black box' of WORDLEMATCH.
I've mimicked it quite well with the exception of how to deal with double letters like in 'OTTER'.

It works rather straightforwardly.

First it checks every position of the guess if that letter is correct and correctly placed. If so, that position is assigned the number 2 to identify green. It replaces the position in the target string with a zero so it will not give hits in the following.

Then it checks all remaining letters of the guess if that letter exists anywhere in the target string and if so assigns a 1 for ”yellow”.

All positions without hits are assigned 0 for ”gray”.

I then convert the value of the resulting string of 0, 1, 2s (or actually, its reverse) from trinary to decimal representation, getting a number between 0 and 242 that uniquely identifies the pattern.

For example, guessing STINK if the solution is SNUCK would be the pattern , which the function would write down as the trinary 21002. Converting to decimal would be $2\cdot 3^4 + 1\cdot 3^3 + 2 \cdot 3^0 = 2\cdot 81 + 27 + 2 = 162 + 27 + 2 = 191$. This is the number that I use to uniquely identify that pattern.

 

[Orodruin]

To add to the above: I compute the pattern id for all remaining words for each guess. Then I keep only those words that match the pattern result for all guesses in the analysis.

The analysis then computes the pattern for guessing each remaining word for the case when each remaining word is the solution. This results in a list of which patterns are possible for each guess and how many remaining words would result in each pattern. It is this information that I then do math magic on to score each remaining word based on how many words are expected (or rather, the expected logarithm of the number) to remain after guessing that word.

 

[dwarde]

Wordle 1,355 4/6

 

[Orodruin]

Wordle 1 356 2/6




Had this been two months ago I would have had my first 1 ...
Anyway, simple 2, only one left after the seed.

 

[OmCheeto]

Wordle 1,356 2/6




100% luck here. Only 2 choices after my ARTSY seed.

 

[jack action]

Wordle 1,356 2/6

[ARISE] 1 left
[ALERT]

More impressive than it looks. Pure luck. I forgot to set the options to ignore past answers, so I actually had 6 left with my seed. It was the best filter but not a perfect one. I realized my error when I read @Orodruin 's post.

 

[dwarde]

OOps I tripped over some major brain fog.

Wordle 1,356 3/6

 

[Orodruin]

Wordle 1 357 3/6





Super-standard. Around the expected entropy left after seed. I chose a slightly sub-optimal second guess on the grounds that I thought it more likely to be a solution (TRUNK vs DRUNK) and only the solution remained after that.

 

[OmCheeto]

Wordle 1,357 3/6

RECUT 14 remaining
ORATE 1 remaining


Quite the circus. 3 spreadsheets and 2 browsers open while playing confused me to the point where I forgot to blank out the 3 black letters from my seed word leading to the 2nd guess having one of those letters again. But for some reason this turned out for the best as the somewhat wonky 2nd guess eliminated all but the solution. I might have had it in 4 if I had played correctly. Another weird thing was that had I played correctly, my second guess would have been my seed word from yesterday.

 

[jack action]

Wordle 1,357 3/6

[ARISE] 19 left
[PUTON] filter - 1 left
[TROOP]

 

[dwarde]

Wordle 1,357 4/6