YOU: Fix the US Energy Crisis

[jim hardy]

Well maybe in FL? Space heat is #1 in the US Jim.

Well you're right of course. I guess I'm South-Centric.
I heat with wood and cook with gas .

Sorry ! fixed it

old jim

 

[anorlunda]

The bizarre world of bitcoin ‘mining’ finds a new home in Tibet

From today's Washington Post. It is a fun-to-read story about people finding intelligent ways to consume energy. They took advantage of an existing underused facility, and advantage of the property of the Bitcoin mining app that it doesn't matter where the service is done. The hydro power available may also vary seasonally. That too is easily accommodated in the Bitcoin mining app.

Re #1350: When I say some apps can consume energy more intelligently, that does not imply all apps. Nor does saying "some can't" refute the point.

 

[Arqane]

My take on the issue: It's far more important what happens at the commercial/industrial level than the personal level. Personal choices are almost meaningless when it comes to energy as a whole, or the environmental aspects of it. I'd say the vast majority of people don't have either the time or the inclination to change anything about it. They will generally go with the easiest available, essentially what is given to them. Even the most devout people often won't completely offset their energy usage. I think the most common story from people who I hear of who are concerned about energy/the environment, is that they work very hard to always turn off the lights when they leave, and maybe even unplug their computers! Ultimately, that's just a pebble in the pond, and they're putting a lot a effort in for little reward.

Here's my quick, shameless plug: I'm developing zero-energy apartments. I won't push it anymore, if it does well, you can probably figure out what company it is. Not only do the people living there get their energy completely offset by renewable sources (yes, they are grid-tied so it's a mix... but it's net-positive), but the ROI is expected to be higher than standard apartments. Bam, now all of a sudden, there's a large amount of commercial interest, and many people are going to be 100% covered by doing nothing other than renting at a particular place.

Both politics and personal choices can shape demand. But ultimately these days, demand is shaped more by what is available to consumers than an idea of something that they may need. Some business plans and goods are cheaper due to easy supply, but as they say, there's more than one way to skin a cat. Ultimately, I'd say that our energy, and most everything else, is mostly determined by the planning that goes on in businesses. Hopefully they are using more mid-long term strategies, and utilizing good R&D. But a lot of them get myopic, and can barely see a quarter into the future. Although people are lazy in general, even a little work at the top of our corporate ladders goes a long way in making changes for many people.

 

[Arqane]

Yes, they're actually a bit net-positive, since the business model is better if you're never paying retail rates. I actually do have a system being planned for a larger scale complex that can remain off grid, but it needs that scale to make sense. Though, since you're generally not allowed to go off grid here, it may end up having to be connected even though it's not pulling anything from the grid.

 

[mheslep]

Not only do the people living there get their energy completely offset by renewable sources (yes, they are grid-tied so it's a mix... but it's net-positive),

Does the net-positive calculation rely on a Net-Metering scheme offered by the utility, allowing you to sell power to the utility at retail rates or higher? There's some indication that https://www.hawaiianelectric.com/clean-energy-hawaii/producing-clean-energy/net-energy-metering

Hawaiiian Electric ...
The Net Energy Metering (NEM) Program is Closed to New Applicants

 

[OmCheeto]

I can't say that I agree 100% with all of your comments, but I think we are on the same relative level.

...
Here's my quick, shameless plug: I'm developing zero-energy apartments. ...

Ha! I was just reading a thread about an hour ago: What physics knowledge would be required to build a house?

And one of several aspects/thoughts was; "zero net energy".

You aren't in cohorts with @Psinter , are you?

 

[Arqane]

Yes and no. I'm perfectly fine only getting the wholesale rate for extra production, but net-metering either by the month or year makes it simpler. Currently here in Florida, it is net-metered year by year, then the additional is sold off at the end of the year at the wholesale rate (~3c). But I'll be able with the new systems to recycle my energy at a value of ~6c, so if the cost is below that, I can just re-use my own energy instead.

 

[Arqane]

I can't say that I agree 100% with all of your comments, but I think we are on the same relative level.

You aren't in cohorts with @Psinter , are you?

Don't know Psinter, no :). The comments did definitely sound kind of harsh. They were meant to be the harsh reality, as I see it, anyway. But as an added example to it, most people don't know that about 10% of all the trash around Philadelphia is 'recycled' into energy. It's a great example of how businesses work in the background to such great effect, while most people are basically clueless about it. That's the kind of mindless thing that individuals need. And I totally put myself in that category, especially as a single dad. I don't have the time to be sorting recyclables, and going around checking if my daughter turned on 10 lights again. Instead, I'm planning ahead so the business can do it in the background.

 

[mheslep]

An energy price of 6¢/kWh is impressive.

Lazard has the LCOE for US residential rooftop solar at 18 to 30¢ un-subsidized, and 5 or 6¢ cheaper with the govt. subsidy (assumptions: 60% debt at 8% interest rate and 40% equity at 12% cost, 5 KW system at $4 to $5/W installed, 20 yr life, 20% to 25% CF ). Residential battery backup (li-ion) for PV is $1 to $1.6 (page 10). These are US averages, including the sunny SW and the NE; I imagine Florida solar LCOE, similarly calculated, is a bit cheaper but not much.

 

[Arqane]

I was using it as an equivalent cost. Retail is 12c, wholesale is basically 3c. But if I've got extra, then I can cycle it back through my system at ~50% efficiency, meaning I'm selling it back to myself for 6c instead of selling it at 3c. I can always sell wholesale if the wholesale price is more beneficial, but if not, then I never have to send it back. It's a waste, and would be better sold to my neighbors, but Florida law doesn't allow that.

 

[OmCheeto]

...
but Florida law doesn't allow that.

Sorry to turn this political, but, as Shakespeare once said; "Let's kill all the [unethical] lawyers". [ref]

ps. In my own defense, as a notalawyer, I would say that electing people who share our values, is one way to fix the energy crisis.

 

[Arqane]

On the flip side, I may not have started this project if it weren't for Florida's silly laws regarding solar. The main hang up here has been the fact that you cannot sell electricity by the kWh (usage), unless you are one of the designated utilities. Yes, it does add a safety factor, but it's slowed down many of the ways that solar has come on to market, especially PPAs, which are illegal here.

But, there are still some ways to build it, and I even double checked with the commission to make sure. Apart from buying it outright, you can lease whole systems, or tie the costs into rent (ultimately not charging for electric, and simply adjusting your rent for demand...). I actually started with the lease idea a few years ago, but ended up figuring the rental way was better for me personally. So they kind of unintentionally railroaded me into this, and it looks like it'll do very well.

 

[Psinter]

I was mentioned here. What is this thread even about? I'm lost. How can I join the conversation .

 

[anorlunda]

I was using it as an equivalent cost. Retail is 12c, wholesale is basically 3c. But if I've got extra, then I can cycle it back through my system at ~50% efficiency, meaning I'm selling it back to myself for 6c instead of selling it at 3c. I can always sell wholesale if the wholesale price is more beneficial, but if not, then I never have to send it back. It's a waste, and would be better sold to my neighbors, but Florida law doesn't allow that.

Whoa, are you sure that you know what you're talking about? To buy/sell on the wholesale market, you must qualify as a market participant. That includes many stringent requirements including bonding for credit risks. In my state, it also means connecting to the grid at transmission voltages (>75kV). That bar is too high for most businesses to qualify for, not to mention individuals.

What state are you talking about? Have you actually qualified to buy or sell wholesale electricity?

 

[OmCheeto]

I was mentioned here. What is this thread even about? I'm lost. How can I join the conversation .

Obviously, the gods of PF have picked you as a prophet, and sent you a message; "To build a house, think beyond just the sticks and rocks that will hold it together. Your job now, is to start a thread, entitled: "The house that PF built"."

It will be a house, connected to other houses.
And all of those houses, though in different places, with different needs, and not quite the same, will negate the requirement of non-renewable resources.

You can of course, decline the offer.

 

[Arqane]

Whoa, are you sure that you know what you're talking about? To buy/sell on the wholesale market, you must qualify as a market participant. That includes many stringent requirements including bonding for credit risks. In my state, it also means connecting to the grid at transmission voltages (>75kV). That bar is too high for most businesses to qualify for, not to mention individuals.

What state are you talking about? Have you actually qualified to buy or sell wholesale electricity?

I'm in Florida, and ironically, the reason solar isn't big here is precisely because you can't sell electricity, even PPAs. There are certain interconnection requirements, but it's not really about that. We do have net metering, but any additional production is either paid off at the end of a year, or when the account is closed. The payoff date is some time in February. So if I'm producing 120MWh through the year, but the tenants only use 100MWh, then they will keep rolling it over through the year until February, when they pay off the remaining credit at the COG-1 level, which is basically just the average wholesale cost for that year. That's for everything under 2MW.

Even with larger complexes of 20 buildings/200ish units, I'll still be a bit under 2 MW. Anything above does have much more strict requirements, though, that are somewhat similar to running a commercial power plant.

EDIT: Oh, and if you're talking about the 6c equivalent, that stays on site. It's just wasting energy through pumped storage. The energy would be better used by someone else, but it might end up financially better for me to do that way. I'd rather be able to set up a well-regulated mini-grid with my neighbors, which would use the electricity well, and also give them a little backup in case the grid goes out from one of the many lightning strikes we get. But that type of system won't fly in Florida, even though it's potentially more robust for the grid.

 

[anorlunda]

There are certain interconnection requirements, but it's not really about that.

You should check those requirements carefully, they may be a bigger deal than you think.

On second thought, some states might allow residential customers to do net metering at wholesale rates. They are still retail customers but they sell at the wholesale rate and buy at the retail rate.

What I was thinking of was becoming qualified to buy/sell directly on the wholesale market. In my state, NY, anyone wanting to do that must meet the same financial requirements as a utility or a power plant, and to get wholesale electricity physically you basically must build your own transmission substation. But that could be different in different states.

Being able to sell to neighbors is very appealing, but safety requirements alone make it impractical. Also, for the government to have the authority to regulate the utility, it must first grant the utility a legal monopoly in their service area. That blocks you from competing with them.

 

[Astronuc]

Not sure if this belongs in this thread, but -

The Ten Biggest Power Plants In America -- Not What You Think (The metric is kWh/yr in 2014). The article has an interesting table on capacity factor (CF).
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesco...merica-not-what-everyone-claims/#60e93b2d2107

Conca is pro-nuclear.

FYI - CCGT: Breaking the 60 per cent efficiency barrier (article from March 2010)
http://www.powerengineeringint.com/articles/print/volume-18/issue-3/features/ccgt-breaking-the-60-per-cent-efficiency-barrier.html

GE and Siemens have been in a race to provided CCGT with > 60% thermal efficiency.

April 2014 (Power Technology) - The 1,520MW Futtsu-4 was commissioned between 2008 and 2010, and consists of three GE 109H combined cycle systems with 58.6% design thermal efficiency.
http://www.power-technology.com/fea...atural-gas-power-plants-in-the-world-4214992/

 

[Astronuc]

A colleague showed me a site for Bonneville Power Authority, which provides data on wind, hydropower, and thermal generation (thermal = fossil and nuclear).

As with any transmission and distribution system, BPA must balance the supply (generation) with the load (consumption). It's trickier with the variability of the wind, which jumps or drops somewhat unpredictably.

https://transmission.bpa.gov/Business/Operations/Wind/
https://transmission.bpa.gov/Business/Operations/Wind/baltwg.aspx

https://transmission.bpa.gov/Business/Operations/Wind/baltwg3.aspx

 

[anorlunda]

As with any transmission and distribution system, BPA must balance the supply (generation) with the load (consumption). It's trickier with the variability of the wind, which jumps or drops somewhat unpredictably.

Thanks for sharing the data. It is trickier still because they are exporting a lot of power, thus balancing other people's grids. The third link shows an additional curve labeled interchange which accounts for those exports.

 

[mheslep]

...It's trickier with the variability of the wind, which jumps or drops somewhat unpredictably

One fairly certain outcome with wind, is that if one waits long enough, a several days long period will occur where there is no wind at all over a vast area. From the same BPA data, see two years ago in November where BPA wind dropped to nothing for 7 days. The hard to see flat green line at the bottom of the graff is wind. BPA states it has 5000 MW of wind capacity.

 

[mfb]

With so much hydro available, balancing the grid is quite easy.

 

[mheslep]

With so much hydro available, balancing the grid is quite easy.

Up to a point, say 20-30% share load from wind. But I doubt BPA could manage to ever use wind to eliminate all of its thermal fleet despite all that NW hydro. Hydro has a high capacity value, so if there's excess its going to find a full time buyer. In this case that's California. Wind's intermitent nature always seems to guarantee lifetime jobs for coal and gas plants (as in Germany: same coal capacity today as it had 14 years ago). Nuclear can permanently retire fossil though.

 

[Aufbauwerk 2045]

I advocate nuclear power. Of course I am very interested in fusion research. I have been studying tokamak design. But for now fission is the way to go.

By way of education and motivation for people learning about this field, I would like to offer this link which shows where we already were in 1958. This is an old movie but it's fascinating from an educational standpoint and quite beautiful. Maybe students would enjoy it and get interested in nuclear power.



France has had a very successful program. I think France developed its nuclear energy program in a sensible way. I like their idea of starting out with a single reactor type and educating the technicians centrally on that one type. At least that is the information I have seen on their early systems. Maybe someone who knows about French nuclear power can comment.

In my opinion our current energy problems are not scientific or technical at all. They are political, social, and ultimately philosophical. But I don't want to get into that in a science forum.

 

[Michael Meehan]

For start, force people to switch from incadescent lightbulbs to fluorescent ones. In USA fluorescent bulbs are still BIG news.Small steps like this can make big difference.

Why would anyone use flourescent light bulbs when LED lamps are available?

 

[mfb]

LEDs are great, and they are now so cheap that I don't see an argument to buy anything else. They switch on instantly, last forever, their electricity consumption is negligible, and they are available with whatever color you want.How many physicists does it need to change an LED light?

Pointless question, you don't have to change it.

 

[Vanadium 50]

I replaced three 25W incandescents in a ceiling fan with three 3W LED's. They lasted maybe 500 hours. That's 1% of what the vendor claimed. Still under warranty, but I would have to pay shipping both directions, which is more than the cost of the bulbs.

The failure was clearly in the power supply. It was hot every time, and was actually discolored from the heat once.

 

[OmCheeto]

I replaced three 25W incandescents in a ceiling fan with three 3W LED's. They lasted maybe 500 hours. That's 1% of what the vendor claimed. Still under warranty, but I would have to pay shipping both directions, which is more than the cost of the bulbs.

The failure was clearly in the power supply. It was hot every time, and was actually discolored from the heat once.

Caveat emptor.
Also, according to Google translate:
"You get what you pay for" = "Quod pro vobis"

We had a similar discussion just a couple of years ago:

The 2014 Nobel Prize in physics

...Three CFLs from the last package of six I purchased failed in the first 3 days. Just sayin'

This also happened to me. I thought it was just a manufacturing fluke, so I didn't mention it.

A quick google search yields some people with similar stories:
...

I have LED lights that have been on almost continuously since I purchased them, years ago.

 

[anorlunda]

The failure was clearly in the power supply. It was hot every time, and was actually discolored from the heat once.

What power supply? Do you mean the base of the LED bulb?

Are you sure that you are feeding the bulbs with AC power and not half wave rectified DC?

Have you tried putting the same 25 w LED bulbs in an ordinary lamp socket rather than in the ceiling fan?

Since you had three similar failures at similar low-life hours, it suggests something funky and not just a simple case of bulb lifetime.

 

[jim hardy]

Since you had three similar failures at similar low-life hours, it suggests something funky and not just a simple case of bulb lifetime.

Electronics being in the base, and in a ceiling fan they're almost surely base-up, the electronics gets bathed in whatever heat accumulates in the glass globe.

CFL's suffered a lot from that and early ones said to not install them that way.

But a dimmer is certain death to them, every chopped half-sinewave cycle gives a startup-like inrush.