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When will China overtake the U.S, economically?

 
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Feb4-12, 01:45 PM   #86
 

When will China overtake the U.S, economically?

Quote by nitsuj View Post
Not even remotely in the same sense as in the west. Taking care of the older population in the west means exponentially increasing healthcare costs with age.
Like old people cost that much. I doubt the Chinese really have a tradition of sticking their elderly into nursing homes. They probably take care of them themselves and give their old their daily bowl of rice, which probably can be payed full by their elderly since Chinese normally safe lots of money.

I don't think they really have a problem. Europe might have, but worst case that means we'll need to do the same instead of providing them with these ultra-modern ultra-expensive full-care homes.
Feb4-12, 04:35 PM   #87
 
Quote by MarcoD View Post
Europe might have, but worst case that means we'll need to do the same instead of providing them with these ultra-modern ultra-expensive full-care homes.
I take it you haven't had the pleasure of putting one of your parents, who loved you, raised you and cared for you, in one of these homes.
Feb4-12, 04:42 PM   #88
 
Quote by phyzguy View Post
I take it you haven't had the pleasure of putting one of your parents, who loved you, raised you and cared for you, in one of these homes.
I am not against them. I meant that the demographics of Europe (aging population) might imply that that will be the end result.
Feb4-12, 05:02 PM   #89
 
Goldman Sachs published that China will probably overtake the US in 2025, and the BRIC countries will overtake the G7 in 2050.

Given all the bonds stuff, I am wondering whether the Chinese are manipulating the currency, btw. It's easy to cause a credit crunch/deflation by just not buying bonds.

Fortunately, it also has an easy solution. So, whatever. I wonder how interesting life is at the US's and EU's central banks.
Feb4-12, 06:12 PM   #90
 
Quote by nitsuj View Post
Not even remotely in the same sense as in the west. Taking care of the older population in the west means exponentially increasing healthcare costs with age.
Even worse than the west.

Putting it into scale.

Imagine 120 people taking care of 100 people.

Then imagine 100 people taking care of 150 people.

Big difference.
Feb4-12, 06:20 PM   #91
 
Quote by MarcoD View Post
Goldman Sachs published that China will probably overtake the US in 2025, and the BRIC countries will overtake the G7 in 2050.
Yeah, I wouldn't put much stock into such predictions though. There's just too many unforseen variables. I also wonder how the economies of Russia and Iran (of the BRIC) are supposed to match the G7. Russia is in a state of decline, not growing prosperity. They are losing people in large numbers and their economy is not modernizing. They are a quasi-fascist state run by the Russian mafia. And Iran is not a bastion of market capitalism.

As mentioned before, China I think is a bubble waiting to experience a pop (they will at some point). Also as mentioned, I wonder if they really have surpassed Japan, as much of their "GDP" I do not think is real GDP.
Feb4-12, 08:08 PM   #92
 
I think the I in BRIC is India, not Iran. I think it's Brazil,Russia,India,China.
Feb4-12, 09:29 PM   #93
 
Quote by phyzguy View Post
I think the I in BRIC is India, not Iran. I think it's Brazil,Russia,India,China.
CRIPES, yeah, I should've realized that, I don't know why I wrote Iran Thanks for the correction.
Feb11-12, 09:06 AM   #94
 
Quote by mheslep View Post
No, apples with apples. Comparing 1.2 billion people to 300 million people collectively is the apples to oranges comparison.
If you want to compare per capacity rate, USA isn't the king pin anymore
Feb11-12, 04:19 PM   #95
 
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Quote by Hells View Post
If you want to compare per capacity rate, USA isn't the king pin anymore
Rate of what?
Feb11-12, 04:22 PM   #96
 
Dose it matter? our life is to short the best thing you can do with it is to live it to your potential, have fun or help other peoples.
Oct21-12, 12:10 PM   #97
 
Blog Entries: 14
Interesting article,
A Point Of View: What kind of superpower could China be?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-19995218
Oct21-12, 02:53 PM   #98
 
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Quote by Willowz View Post
What are the estimates when this will roughly happen? Are countries preparing for this transition?

This article prompted this question. And the recession.

One thing that makes me cringe is how in the future the blame game between Dems and Reps will grow much more heated.
You can always just do a quick and dirty estimation yourself.

It really depends upon two things:
1. The annual growth rate of the US.
2. The annual growth rate of China.

If we assume a annual growth rate of 2% for the US and 7% for China:
15*e^(t*0.02) - 7*e^(t*0.07) = 0

t=15.24 years


In reality, China is almost certainly cooking its books.

So my prediction is reality will catch up there sooner or later, and a loss of confidence in the Chinese economy will follow.
Dec11-12, 07:22 PM   #99
 
Admin
China overtakes US in number of patent filings
http://news.yahoo.com/china-overtake...--finance.html
GENEVA (AP) — GENEVA — The U.N. says the Chinese filed the most patent applications in the world last year, overtaking the U.S. for the first time.

The U.N.'s World Intellectual Property Organization says China's patent office received 526,412 applications in 2011, ahead of the United States with 503,582 filings.
Next year will be interesting.
Dec16-12, 01:41 PM   #100
 
Michael Pettis challenged the popular economics rag, The Economist, to a contest pitting the two's Chinese GDP forecast.

I believe some people from The Economist do read my blogs from time to time and so I am wondering whether we could set up a friendly bet — not for too large stakes, please, since my resources are limited, but just so that we can both keep up a sporting interest in the economic news over the next few years. I would like to bet that by the end of 2018 China will not be the largest economy in the world.
http://www.mpettis.com/2012/03/26/i-...the-economist/

I like what Pettis has to say. His arguements for a need to rebalance the Chinese economy make sense in light of growing inflation (real estate especially) and declining demand for commodities such as iron, copper and aluminum. He says the next two years will be marked by declining commodity prices which could hurt many Chinese companies, particularly those who stock large surpluses of commodities (like copper).
Dec20-12, 07:11 AM   #101
 
Admin
China to overhaul struggling solar panel industry
http://news.yahoo.com/china-overhaul...--finance.html

Beijing will encourage mergers, reduce government support for the industry and block local leaders from supporting domestic producers, said a Cabinet statement late Wednesday. It said some producers might be allowed to go bankrupt.

The statement gave no details but it affirmed that the communist government sees solar power as one of a series of "strategic emerging industries" that it wants to develop.
. . . .
The industry has piled up debts of some $17.5 billion, according to a report earlier this year by Maxim Group, a New York financial firm.
Dec24-12, 11:50 PM   #102
 
Quote by DrClapeyron View Post
Michael Pettis challenged the popular economics rag, The Economist, to a contest pitting the two's Chinese GDP forecast.



http://www.mpettis.com/2012/03/26/i-...the-economist/

I like what Pettis has to say. His arguements for a need to rebalance the Chinese economy make sense in light of growing inflation (real estate especially) and declining demand for commodities such as iron, copper and aluminum. He says the next two years will be marked by declining commodity prices which could hurt many Chinese companies, particularly those who stock large surpluses of commodities (like copper).
I recently discovered his blog and after spending time in China I strongly agree with it. Their economy is hugely out of whack and it's only a matter of time before it comes crashing down.
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