- #1
Jon Richfield
- 482
- 48
In Science 4 July 2014, there is an item that I saw summarised online:
Injection wells blamed in Oklahoma earthquakes.
...The pressure can reduce forces acting to keep faults locked and trigger earthquakes...
Now, I don't know how likely this is, and the discussion was commendably non-committal, but the idea is not fundamentally implausible. Let us assume that there is a strong causal effect and consider the implications.
Right. Either there is
1: essentially no significant accumulation of stress energy in the region, or
2: an alarmingly growing, but still moderate amount, or
3: a dangerous accumulation, a BIG ONE in waiting. OK?
In the first case, no one cares and the tremors are irrelevant.
In the second case surely the one thing we would want is to bleed off the energy ASAP and as effectively as possible, to prevent a dangerous accumulation?
In the third case, suppose that we not only refrain from injecting water, but pump out all the excess we can find; that might delay the BIG ONE no?
But to what effect? So that all the politicians and big businessmen could quickly quake-proof every big city around?
I don't THINK so!
And the longer the delay, the bigger the BIG ONE!
And it might be a bit unnerving to tickle the dragon's tail by injecting water, but every joule we lubricate out of the BIG ONE and dissipate as tremors, will reduce the impact when it does hit. In fact wouldn't it be conceivable that if we could make the entire West Coast feel like a diesel truck on a country road for a year or so, we could bleed the BIG ONE so effectively that when it does hit, everyone complains about the fuss and wants to know why these scientists keep shouting wolf?
And although it might be too difficult to fend off the BIG ONE and all that we did would be to hasten its coming, then surely the sooner the better, because the later the bigger?
So why complain about a bit of water injection or any amount of water injection at all?
Why not start injecting a nice big slice of the Pacific in the hopes of ending the suspense with a smaller imminent BIG ONE than a deferred REALLY BIG ONE, hm?
Any comments?
Injection wells blamed in Oklahoma earthquakes.
...The pressure can reduce forces acting to keep faults locked and trigger earthquakes...
Now, I don't know how likely this is, and the discussion was commendably non-committal, but the idea is not fundamentally implausible. Let us assume that there is a strong causal effect and consider the implications.
Right. Either there is
1: essentially no significant accumulation of stress energy in the region, or
2: an alarmingly growing, but still moderate amount, or
3: a dangerous accumulation, a BIG ONE in waiting. OK?
In the first case, no one cares and the tremors are irrelevant.
In the second case surely the one thing we would want is to bleed off the energy ASAP and as effectively as possible, to prevent a dangerous accumulation?
In the third case, suppose that we not only refrain from injecting water, but pump out all the excess we can find; that might delay the BIG ONE no?
But to what effect? So that all the politicians and big businessmen could quickly quake-proof every big city around?
I don't THINK so!
And the longer the delay, the bigger the BIG ONE!
And it might be a bit unnerving to tickle the dragon's tail by injecting water, but every joule we lubricate out of the BIG ONE and dissipate as tremors, will reduce the impact when it does hit. In fact wouldn't it be conceivable that if we could make the entire West Coast feel like a diesel truck on a country road for a year or so, we could bleed the BIG ONE so effectively that when it does hit, everyone complains about the fuss and wants to know why these scientists keep shouting wolf?
And although it might be too difficult to fend off the BIG ONE and all that we did would be to hasten its coming, then surely the sooner the better, because the later the bigger?
So why complain about a bit of water injection or any amount of water injection at all?
Why not start injecting a nice big slice of the Pacific in the hopes of ending the suspense with a smaller imminent BIG ONE than a deferred REALLY BIG ONE, hm?
Any comments?