Police Study: Astrological Evidence in Tail of Normal Distribution

In summary, the conversation discusses a recent article claiming that astrological signs can predict likelihood of arrest. However, experts point out that the data used only represents a small portion of the overall distribution and is not statistically significant. This is a common fallacy known as the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy, where an outlier is highlighted to support a claim. It is important to critically analyze such claims and not jump to conclusions based on limited data.
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Jack21222
212
1
Astrological "evidence" produced by looking at the tails of a normal distribution

I just ran across this on a large news aggregation website, so I'm sure some people here might have seen it as well.

http://www.inquisitr.com/173752/jail-time-predetermined-by-astrology-signs-says-police-study/

But just because the police don’t see the value in such a list doesn’t mean that the pattern isn’t there. Georgia Nicols, who writes the National Post’s horoscope, said that it isn’t surprising to her that Aries are arrested the most.

“Aries is the sign of the warrior. Aries rules the military. Aries jump in head first, and love adventure. A lot of people in the newsroom are Aries.”

If you look at the data, it appears to be a gaussian distribution, which shouldn't be too surprising. They just picked one of the tails (and it isn't even an extreme outlier, maybe 1 or 2 sigma, I haven't done the math) and are trying to attach some significance to it.

This is commonly known as the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy, where this article is drawing a bullseye around the outlier.

I'm sure this isn't the first time people have tried using outliers in a normal distribution to show evidence for astrology (or any number of other woo-woo claims). So, it's important to keep your tools sharp in your baloney detection kit, and keep an eye out for this sort of thing.
 
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The probability that the worst month will have 203 or more arrests is calculable, and is 3.4%. I can't get excited about that.
 
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I'm willing to bet that if they tracked data for multiple years, the annual variation would be similar to or exceed variation based on birth date.
 

1. What is the purpose of the study?

The purpose of the study is to examine the potential link between astrological signs and the distribution of police officers within the normal distribution curve.

2. How was the data collected and analyzed?

The data was collected through surveys and interviews with police officers, and their astrological signs were recorded. The data was then analyzed using statistical methods to determine the distribution of astrological signs within the police force.

3. What were the findings of the study?

The study found that there was no significant difference in the distribution of astrological signs among police officers compared to the general population. This suggests that astrological signs have no influence on an individual's career choice as a police officer.

4. What are the implications of this study?

The implications of this study suggest that astrological signs should not be used as a factor in selecting individuals for police recruitment or in predicting their success as police officers.

5. Are there any limitations to the study?

One limitation of the study is that it only focused on one specific occupation, the police force. Further research is needed to determine if there is a link between astrological signs and career choices in other professions. Additionally, the study relied on self-reported data, which may not be entirely accurate.

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