- #1
CantorSet
- 44
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Hi everyone,
Someone posed the question:
and Marilyn (high IQ record holder) answers:
What do you guys think? You can find the original in the link below.
http://www.parade.com/askmarilyn/2011/07/Sundays-Column-07-31-11.html
Someone posed the question:
Say you plan to roll a die 20 times. Which of these results is more likely: (a) 11111111111111111111, or (b) 66234441536125563152?
and Marilyn (high IQ record holder) answers:
In theory, the results are equally likely. Both specify the number that must appear each time the die is rolled. (For example, the 10th number in the first series must be a 1. The 10th number in the second series must be a 3.) Each number—1 through 6—has the same chance of landing faceup.
But let’s say you tossed a die out of my view and then said that the results were one of the above. Which series is more likely to be the one you threw? Because the roll has already occurred, the answer is (b). It’s far more likely that the roll produced a mixed bunch of numbers than a series of 1’s.
What do you guys think? You can find the original in the link below.
http://www.parade.com/askmarilyn/2011/07/Sundays-Column-07-31-11.html