Projected supply of pandemic influenza vaccine sharply increases

[Moridin]

http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2007/pr60/en/index.html

23 OCTOBER 2007 | GENEVA -- Recent scientific advances and increased vaccine manufacturing capacity have prompted experts to increase their projections of how many pandemic influenza vaccine courses can be made available in the coming years.

Last spring, the World Health Organization (WHO) and vaccine manufacturers said that about 100 million courses of pandemic influenza vaccine based on the H5N1 avian influenza strain could be produced immediately with standard technology. Experts now anticipate that global production capacity will rise to 4.5 billion pandemic immunization courses per year in 2010.

 

[jim mcnamara]

Um, I don't mean to sound pessimistic, but my understanding of influenza vaccines is that:
1. they are not 100% effective
2. they reduce mortality, but do not eliminate it
3. they reduce disease retransmission in populations with high immunization rates.

So, if we are actually able to immunize 4.5B humans 8 weeks before a flu pandemic hits, then we lose (based on 1919 flu data) 10% of 50 million deaths instead of 50 million.

Which is a big win.

But my q's:

1. how do we handle the "if" the clause. Ever been to Pakistan or the "Violencia" sections of Peru? There are going to be huge populations that will never get the vaccine.

2. And if all my neighbors are Sante FE NM kooks, and decide not to get shots, I'm going to be barraged by such a high titer of virsues that I'll get sick anyway.

Both of these are social and legal questions, not really scientific, but we live in a world of human beings... and you know how well Science, Politics, and Religion mix.

 

[ravenprp]

This is great news for global health security. With the increased production capacity for pandemic influenza vaccine, we are better prepared to respond to a potential pandemic and protect populations from a deadly virus. The fact that the projection has more than quadrupled from 100 million to 4.5 billion courses per year is a testament to the advancements in scientific technology and the commitment of vaccine manufacturers to prioritize global health.

However, it is important to note that this increase in production capacity does not mean that we are completely prepared for a pandemic. There are still challenges and limitations in terms of distribution and access to the vaccine, especially in developing countries. It is crucial that efforts are made to ensure equitable distribution of the vaccine and to address any potential barriers to access.

Additionally, while the H5N1 avian influenza strain is a major concern, it is important to continue monitoring and preparing for other potential pandemic influenza strains. We must not become complacent with this increase in production capacity and continue to invest in research and development for new and emerging viruses.

Overall, this news is a positive step towards strengthening global health security and preparing for potential pandemics. It is a reminder of the importance of collaboration and investment in public health measures to protect populations from deadly diseases.