A 'what if' model of cloud cover and increased warming

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In summary, a research group has created a hypothetical model of stratocumulus cloud formation at significantly increased levels of CO2 (1200ppm and higher). The model suggests that at these levels, cloud decks would not form and the light energy they no longer reflect would add an additional 8°C to global temperature averages. However, it is unclear if the decrease in cooling during the day would be offset by increased radiational cooling at night, resulting in wider temperature swings or a net increase in average temperatures. The model only focuses on the subtropics and ocean surfaces, and the explanation of the effect is not entirely clear. The Washington Post article reporting on this study is relatively unbiased, but there is a concern that sensationalized reporting could
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Popular reporting:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/clim...te-change-model-warns/?utm_term=.d40e5e576254
Article in Nature Geoscience:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-019-0310-1 (I can see the article, may be behind a paywall)

Research group created models of stratocumulus cloud formation at very increased levels of increased CO2 , 1200ppm and higher. Our current levels are slightly above 400ppm.

Cloud decks would not form at high CO2 levels and the light energy they no longer reflect would add an additional 8°C to world temperature averages.

This is strictly a hypothetical model. Calling it a 'what if' model is appropriate, if you accept the conclusions of those researchers who built the model.

This model is interesting. Clouds are a component of climate that researchers seem to have avoided in the past. The sad downside is that yellow journalism will turn this into a proclamation of certain impending doom, instead of an instructive model. The Washington Post article cited above is reasonable reporting without much hyperbole. IMO.
 
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I read those articles. What was not clear to me was whether the decrease cooling during the day was offset by the increased radiational cooling at night. Would this result in only wider day/night temperature swings or a net increase in average temps as well?
 
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They do deal with heat loss. I can't post the graphic because of copyright considerations. IMO the explanation is less than clear, they claim that cloud top effects change the structure (layers) of air with relative humidity being higher at upper level (350m) which traps heat loss at night -- Due to increased evaporation.

You may have a different take on their description of the effect.

The model deals with the subtropics and ocean surfaces mostly, another limitation.
 
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1. What is a "what if" model of cloud cover and increased warming?

A "what if" model is a hypothetical scenario used by scientists to explore the potential effects of certain variables on a system. In this case, the model is used to study the impact of changes in cloud cover on global warming.

2. How do clouds affect the Earth's temperature?

Clouds can both trap heat and reflect sunlight, making their overall impact on temperature complex. Low, thick clouds tend to trap heat and contribute to warming, while high, thin clouds reflect sunlight and have a cooling effect. The net effect of clouds on temperature depends on their type, altitude, and coverage.

3. What are the potential consequences of increased cloud cover on global warming?

Increased cloud cover could potentially amplify global warming by trapping more heat in the atmosphere. This could lead to a positive feedback loop, where warming causes more clouds, which in turn leads to more warming. However, the exact impact of increased cloud cover on global warming is still uncertain and requires further research.

4. How do scientists create a "what if" model of cloud cover and increased warming?

Scientists use computer simulations to create "what if" models of cloud cover and increased warming. These simulations incorporate data on cloud cover, atmospheric conditions, and other variables to predict how changes in cloud cover may affect global temperatures over time.

5. What are the limitations of a "what if" model in studying cloud cover and increased warming?

While "what if" models can provide valuable insights into potential outcomes, they are not perfect representations of the real world. They rely on assumptions and simplifications, and their predictions are only as accurate as the data and variables used. Additionally, there may be other factors that could influence cloud cover and global warming that are not accounted for in the model.

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