Calculating Probability of Winning a Point on Serve in Tennis

In summary, the conversation discusses how to calculate the probability of a player winning a point when serving in a tennis match. The formula provided is to multiply the percentage of first serves in by the percentage of first serve points won, and add that to the product of (1- percentage of first serves in) and the percentage of second serve points won. This gives the probability of winning a service point for different players, with Djokovic at 69%, Isner at 73%, and Ferrer at 63%.
  • #1
JamesBwoii
74
0
Hi, I'm trying to make a tennis betting model but I'm struggling to get my head around how to calculate the probability of a player to win a point when serving. So:

How can I calculate the probability, p, of a player winning a point when serving given:

The percentage of first serves that the player gets in. (I'm not sure this is relevant/needed).

The percentage of first serve points won.

The percentage of second serve points won.

For example say a player gets 57.9% of first serves in, wins 70.4% of first serve points and 49.5% of second serve points how would I calculate p.

Thanks :D
 
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  • #2
I think I've got it.

Is it:

Percentage of first serve in * percentage of first serve won + (1-percentage of first serve in) * percentage of second serve won.This seems about right, if you know about tennis it gives the probability of winning a service point of:

Djokovic - 69%
Isner - 73%
Ferrer - 63%
 

1. How is probability of winning a point on serve calculated in tennis?

The probability of winning a point on serve in tennis is calculated by dividing the total number of points won on serve by the total number of service points played. This gives the percentage of points won on serve, which is then converted to a decimal and multiplied by 100 to get the probability in percentage form.

2. What factors influence the probability of winning a point on serve?

There are several factors that can influence the probability of winning a point on serve in tennis. These include the player's serving speed, accuracy, placement, spin, and variety of serves. Other factors such as the opponent's return position, court surface, and weather conditions can also have an impact on the probability of winning a point on serve.

3. How does the player's serving speed affect the probability of winning a point on serve?

The faster a player serves, the higher the probability of winning a point on serve. This is because a faster serve is more difficult for the opponent to return, giving the server a better chance of winning the point. However, a player's serving accuracy and placement are also important factors to consider.

4. How does the court surface affect the probability of winning a point on serve?

The court surface can have a significant impact on the probability of winning a point on serve in tennis. On faster surfaces such as grass and hard courts, the ball bounces lower and faster, making it more difficult for the opponent to return serves. This can result in a higher probability of winning points on serve. On slower surfaces such as clay, the ball bounces higher and slower, giving the opponent more time to return serves and reducing the probability of winning points on serve.

5. Can the probability of winning a point on serve be improved?

Yes, the probability of winning a point on serve can be improved through practice and developing strong serving skills. Players can work on their serving speed, accuracy, placement, spin, and variety to increase their chances of winning points on serve. They can also study their opponents' return tendencies and adjust their serves accordingly to improve their success rate on serve.

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