Calculating Standard Deviation for Margin of Victory in a Game of Chance

  • Thread starter Firefight
  • Start date
In summary, the goal of the game is to reach 1000 damage before the other player does. Both players have an equal chance of winning and 50% of the time they hit 0 or miss, and 50% of the time they hit a random number between 1 and 112. To determine the standard deviation of the margin of victory, a simulation can be run by generating random numbers and tracking the total damage until one player reaches 1000. A program or spreadsheet can be used to automate this process.
  • #1
Firefight
6
0
I want a simulation ran for this problem:

Assume that the goal in a game is to hit a total of 1000 damage before the other person does.

Now, two people are both competing against each other in this goal to 1000 damage.

Each person has an equal chance to beat each other to this thousand (they both hit at the same time, and if both of them hit >1000 at the same time, a random winner is chosen).

Here's how the damage works:

50% of the time (randomly), the people hit 0 (or miss).
and, 50% of the time the people hit a random number in between 1 and 112.

I want to know the standard deviation of how much the winner beats the other. EG: How often would the person who wins beat his opponent to 1000 by a margin of 30, and how much rarer would it be if he did it by 300, etc.

The more simulations ran, the better. I want a small 95/99% confidence interval. If anyone could do this for me, that'd be great. And I would be forever grateful if anyone of you actually told me the formula to do this w/o having to run the simulation!
 
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  • #2
To run this simulation, you would need to create a program that randomly generates numbers between 0 and 112 and then tracks the total damage inflicted until one of the players reaches 1000. You would then need to calculate the difference in total damage between the winner and the loser and use that to generate a standard deviation for the margin of victory. Depending on how many simulations you want to run, it may be simpler to create a program that does this or you could use a spreadsheet program such as Excel to track the results manually.
 

Related to Calculating Standard Deviation for Margin of Victory in a Game of Chance

1. What is a probability problem?

A probability problem is a mathematical or scientific question that involves determining the likelihood or chance of a certain event occurring. It often involves using statistical methods and calculations to analyze and predict the outcome of a given situation.

2. How do you calculate probability?

To calculate probability, you first need to determine the total number of possible outcomes for an event. Then, you divide the number of desired outcomes by the total number of possible outcomes. The resulting value is the probability of that event occurring.

3. What is the difference between theoretical and experimental probability?

Theoretical probability is based on mathematical calculations and assumes that all possible outcomes are equally likely. Experimental probability, on the other hand, is based on actual data and observations from experiments or real-life situations.

4. What are some common applications of probability in science?

Probability is widely used in science to make predictions and decisions based on data. It is commonly used in fields such as genetics, medicine, finance, and engineering to analyze and interpret data, and to make informed decisions and predictions about the likelihood of certain outcomes.

5. How can understanding probability help in everyday life?

Understanding probability can help in everyday life by allowing us to make more informed decisions and predictions based on data. It can also help us to better understand and interpret information presented to us, such as statistics in the news or on product packaging.

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