Calculating the expected value of a dice roll

In summary, the expected value for a board game where 1 counts as 6 and all other numbers count as themselves is 11/3. Initially, there was a mistake in the calculation due to not counting all possible throws and multiplying the probabilities incorrectly. The correct calculation is done by multiplying each probability by the corresponding number of steps taken in that case.
  • #1
Addez123
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21
Homework Statement
In a boardgame you move forward the amount of steps that the dice roll. Except if the dice show 1 you move 6 steps. Calculate the Expected Value.
Relevant Equations
E(x) = sum(g(k) * p(k))
I write p(k) as:
$$p(k) = 1/6, k = 2,3,4,5$$
$$p(k) = 2/6, k = 6$$

Is that wrong?
Because then the expected value becomes
$$1/6 * 4 + 2/6 * 6 = 8/3$$

While my book says 11/3
 
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  • #2
Addez123 said:
Homework Statement:: In a boardgame you move forward the amount of steps that the dice roll. Except if the dice show 1 you move 6 steps. Calculate the Expected Value.
Relevant Equations:: E(x) = sum(g(k) * p(k))

I write p(k) as:
$$p(k) = 1/6, k = 2,3,4,5$$
$$p(k) = 2/6, k = 6$$

Is that wrong?
Because then the expected value becomes
$$1/6 * 4 + 2/6 * 6 = 8/3$$

While my book says 11/3
Well, ##8/3 < 3##, which is less than you'd expect if ##1## counted as ##1## and not ##6##.

Your problem seems to be that you didn't count throws of ##2,3## or ##5##.
 
  • #3
PS The book's answer looks wrong. Assuming I've understood the rules.
 
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  • #4
I don't get the book answer.

Edit: Beaten by @PeroK
 
  • #5
Addez123 said:
$$p(k) = 1/6, k = 2,3,4,5$$
$$p(k) = 2/6, k = 6$$
Is that wrong?
Because then the expected value becomes
$$1/6 * 4 + 2/6 * 6 = 8/3$$
No, it doesn’t become that.
In your last step, you multiplied the 1/6 by the number of cases with that probability, not by the number of steps taken in those cases.
 
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  • #6
Ah yea that was why!
Should've calculated 1/6*2 + 1/6 * 3 etc.
 

1. What is the formula for calculating expected value of a dice roll?

The formula for calculating expected value of a dice roll is: (1/6) * (1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6) = 3.5. This means that on average, the expected value of a single dice roll is 3.5.

2. How is the expected value of a dice roll useful?

The expected value of a dice roll is useful because it gives a measure of the average outcome of a random event. This can be helpful in decision making, risk assessment, and predicting outcomes in games of chance.

3. Can the expected value of a dice roll be negative?

No, the expected value of a dice roll cannot be negative. It represents the average outcome of a random event, and negative numbers are not possible outcomes when rolling a standard six-sided dice.

4. How does the number of dice affect the expected value?

The expected value increases as the number of dice increases. For example, when rolling two dice, the expected value is 7, and when rolling three dice, the expected value is 10.5.

5. Is the expected value of a dice roll always guaranteed?

No, the expected value is not a guaranteed outcome. It is simply a measure of the average outcome based on probability. In some cases, the actual outcome may be different from the expected value.

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