Coming Pandemonium: Peak Oil & its Consequences

[hypatia]

Solar energy (commercial, solar thermal conversion, photovoltaic cells), wind power, tidal power, ocean thermal conversion, biomass, geothermal energy, conversion of coal into gas, extraction of oil from tar sands and efforts at tertiary recovery from oil deposits
We're not going to run out of uranium any time soon, even on a bad year they mine between 42 and 46 tonnes world wide.
Gas rationing has occurred several times in USA history{1940's and 1970's}, people adapted and survived. MY Granny recalls getting together with friends and putting all there gas stamps together so all of them could take a driveing vacation. And while gas lines in the 70's sometimes went for a block or two, your statement of "miles" is way out of line. I did buy a very small car, and didnt drive as much as I wanted to.
We have been being preped to think about hybred/ other fule source cars for years now. Its not as big of shock as you may think.

 

[corra]

gonna take a moment to answer kurdt's reply here.
Every house can't be self sufficient.

take solar power for instance. from the 60's until today we have built on a worldwide scale aprox 10 square kilometres of solar panels.
to replace oil for housing power alone we would need 250.000+ square kilometres of solar panels. food for thought.

 

[Kurdt]

Because the demand for soalr panels is very low. It doesn't mean that we can only produce solar panels at that rate. And where are you getting these numbers from?

 

[corra]

there is not enough factories to make solar panels on a big level, also there is not enough demand to justify making more factories.
when peak oil hits it will take a long time to get the factories up and running to supply the solar panels. not to mention the raw materials needed which is already in short supply.

The source i have this info from is matthew simmons.
If you do not know who he is i suggest you watch the "Crude awakening" documentary covering peak oil and its consequenses.

 

[wolram]

What fraction of our oil is used to make plastics and other manufactured goods? Is that really a significant issue?

http://www.3k88.com/products.htm

This is a list of some of the products made from oil. Nearly everything in our lives is made from oil, made by machinery and systems dependent on oil, and transported by oil as either gas or diesel fuel.



Ammonia, Anesthetics, Antihistamines, Artificial limbs, Artificial Turf, Antiseptics, Aspirin, Auto Parts, Awnings, Balloons, Ballpoint pens, Bandages, Beach Umbrellas, Boats, Cameras, Candles, Car Battery Cases, Carpets, Caulking, Combs, Cortisones, Cosmetics, Crayons, Credit Cards, Curtains, Deodorants, Detergents, Dice, Disposable Diapers, Dolls, Dyes, Eye Glasses, Electrical Wiring Insulation, Faucet Washers, Fishing Rods, Fertilizer, Fishing Line, Fishing Lures, Food Preservatives, Food Packaging, Garden Hose, Glue, Hair Coloring, Hair Curlers, Hand Lotion, Hearing Aids, Heart Valves, Ink, Insect Repellant, Insecticides, Linoleum, Lip Stick, Milk Jugs, Nail Polish, Oil Filters, Panty Hose, Perfume, Petroleum Jelly, Rubber Cement, Rubbing Alcohol, Shampoo, Shaving Cream, Shoes, Toothpaste, Trash Bags, Upholstery, Vitamin Capsules, Water Pipes, Yarn

 

[wolram]

Why America needs vast amounts of oil.

http://www.fccdr.usf.edu/upload/projects/tlushtml/tlus60.htm

The car was once a symbol of freedom that gave the individual citizen command over time and space and a degree of mobility hitherto unattained. It is now increasingly seen as a major source of congestion and pollution, accused of reducing the attractiveness and efficiency of the city itself, and generating a long list of economic, social, and environmental costs. 12

In the US, the automobile has reached its zenith, inducing sprawled and inefficient land use patterns, which force people to travel longer distances to meet daily needs. Land use changes and under-investment have reduced public transportation, once the main force guiding metropolitan development, to a meager 3% of all trips. Vehicle miles of travel (VMT) are growing nationwide at 2.5% and in many metropolitan areas by more than 4% annually, leading to severe traffic congestion, as road-building has not been able to keep pace due to both space and fiscal limitations. The US now accounts for one-fourth of total global carbon emissions, and these are growing at more than 4% a year, with 30% of the contribution from the transportation sector. Nearly 70% of the massive US trade deficit is now accounted for by imports of petroleum and motor vehicles. 13

 

[russ_watters]

This is a list of some of the products made from oil...

I am aware of what we make from oil. My question was what fraction of our oil consumption is that?

 

[wolram]

I am aware of what we make from oil. My question was what fraction of our oil consumption is that?

Does it matter, if you do not have it you can not make these things from it.

 

[wolram]

http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2005/09/oil_shale_retor.html

A number of observers have been pointing to oil shale as the solution to all our energy problems. If oil shale does turn out to be the resource of the future, then our problems are only beginning.

 

[Kurdt]

there is not enough factories to make solar panels on a big level, also there is not enough demand to justify making more factories.
when peak oil hits it will take a long time to get the factories up and running to supply the solar panels. not to mention the raw materials needed which is already in short supply.

The source i have this info from is matthew simmons.
If you do not know who he is i suggest you watch the "Crude awakening" documentary covering peak oil and its consequenses.

You're assuming that solar panels are the only solution. They are not and I never claimed they were. Of course there will be problems when the worlds fossil fuels run out, but I think if we're a little more optimistic about the future then these problems will not be so bad. That is all I was trying to say.

 

[russ_watters]

nuclear power taking over as the main power delivery system would burn through our remaining uranium in 20 years...

I've heard that figure before and it is simply a lie spread by radical environmentalists (I can't remember where it came from - perhaps Greenpeace). They choose simply wrong assumptions for every part of their calculation. Real nuclear engineers predict we could go for hundreds, perhaps thousands of years using current technologies and reasonable projected growth in energy needs.

In summary, the actual recoverable uranium supply is likely to be enough to last several hundred (up to 1000) years, even using standard reactors. With breeders, it is essentially infinite. Hundreds of thousands of years is certainly enough time to develop fusion power, or renewable sources that can meet all our power needs.

—James Hopf
Nuclear Engineer

http://www.americanenergyindependence.com/uranium.html

not to mention that to replace oil we would need 10.000 of the biggest possible nuclear plants.

Well, no, by my calculations 10,000 nuclear plants would roughly equal the world's current energy usage from all sources (447 quadrillion btu in 2004). Somewhere around half of that is oil and assuming the peak oil prediction is right, we would have several decades to bulid them as oil production falls.

The tough part is replacing oil use in transportation.

Personally, I'm still more concerned about coal-fired power plants than I am about peak oil.

 

[russ_watters]

Does it matter, if you do not have it you can not make these things from it.

Yeah, it does matter because oil is not going to simply disappear. That's not even what "peak oil" is about.

 

[wolram]

Yeah, it does matter because oil is not going to simply disappear. That's not even what "peak oil" is about.

It may not disappear but, if your country is not producing it how do you know
you can get it.

 

[Jimmy Snyder]

What fraction of our oil is used to make plastics and other manufactured goods? Is that really a significant issue?

Does this help? If the following is correct, then the answer is around 10% or less depending upon how that 10% is split out.

Fuel products account for nearly 9 out of every 10 barrels of petroleum used in the United States.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/neic/infosheets/petroleumproducts.html"

 

[wolram]

China and America the final energy war.

http://www.321energy.com/editorials/winston/winston020905.html

Unrestricted War: China’s Master Plan to Destroy America is a treatise for world domination written in 1999 by People’s Liberation Army Colonels Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui. In order for China to become a dominant global power over the United States, the PLA emphasizes “The Final War over Resources”, must be won.

The Colonels state that the aggressor nation “must adjust its own financial strategy, use currency revaluation or devaluation as primary weapons, and combine means such as getting the upper hand in public opinion and changing the rules sufficiently to make financial turbulence and economic crisis appear in the targeted country or area, weakening its overall power, including its military strength. Whether it be the intrusions of hackers, a major explosion at the World Trade Center, or a bombing attack by bin Laden, all of these greatly exceed the frequency bandwidths understood by the American military..."

 

[Chi Meson]

Believe me, I think through it carefully before I agree with Russ.But...
I agree with Russ on the "20 years of uranium" myth.

The "20 year supply of uranium" comes from: IF we replace fossil-based electricity with fission-based electricity, and IF we continue to use energy at current rates, then our national uranium RESERVES (the stuff already mined, refined and set aside for future use) would last 20 years. There's still more in the ground.

I have heard as much as 600 years of fission is probable. "Infinite" sounds a bit high though.

A very significant use of petroleum products, I have recently learned, is crop fertilizer. As I said before, we are heading for interesting times this century.

 

[Jimmy Snyder]

A very significant use of petroleum products, I have recently learned, is crop fertilizer.

How very significant? This link puts it in a category along with petroleum jelly and says the entire category represents 0.3% of products and uses.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/analysis_publications/petroleum_profile_1999/profile99v8.pdf"
Note the rectangle labelled 'Miscellaneous Products' (near the bottom) in figure 1.1 on page 2.

 

[ice109]

fusion, that's all i have to say

 

[baywax]

Within 2-10 years all these things will have happened to this planet.

1: Crash of the american dollar.
2: Worldwide recession.
3: Famine and disease catastrophes in 3 world countries.
4: Rescource wars in the middle east to secure oil rights.
5: Israel going into Iran backed by the U.S (under the exuse of the nuclear programme)
6: Suburbian ghost towns will crop up all over the United States as people move back into cities or out to towns and villages.
7: Indentured servants will be brought back in the us due to the large amounts of people not being able to pay their mortgages when recession hits. (new law passed recently allowing this)
8: The end of the green revolution.
9: Massive increase in CO2 pollution due to increase in coal plants.
10: Un-employment sky rocketing in the U.S where 15% of all jobs directly and indirectly cater to the automobile industry.

All this WILL happen and for 1 reason. Peak oil.

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/
Has all you need to know about peak oil and if you read the paper you will be shocked, depressed and enlightened all at once.
It is a must read if you have not heard about Peak oil before.

http://www.energybulletin.net/news.php?cat=30
Daily updates about news covering the oil crisis.

http://www.cbc.ca/consumer/story/2007/07/09/oilshortage070709.html#skip300x250
July 9th report that admits that the signs will be clear very soon.

Who peed in your cornflakes?

 

[G01]

I've heard that figure before and it is simply a lie spread by radical environmentalists (I can't remember where it came from - perhaps Greenpeace). They choose simply wrong assumptions for every part of their calculation. Real nuclear engineers predict we could go for hundreds, perhaps thousands of years using current technologies and reasonable projected growth in energy needs.

OK. This is much more similar to the numbers that were running through my head. Corra, you should probably try to find some new sources, especially if they are trying to use lies from radical environmentalists.

 

[russ_watters]

Believe me, I think through it carefully before I agree with Russ.But...
I agree with Russ on the "20 years of uranium" myth.

The "20 year supply of uranium" comes from: IF we replace fossil-based electricity with fission-based electricity, and IF we continue to use energy at current rates, then our national uranium RESERVES (the stuff already mined, refined and set aside for future use) would last 20 years. There's still more in the ground.

I have heard as much as 600 years of fission is probable. "Infinite" sounds a bit high though.

A very significant use of petroleum products, I have recently learned, is crop fertilizer. As I said before, we are heading for interesting times this century.

I think the 20 years thing does allow for mining more from known reserves, but it also requires a once-through fuel cycle, which is sheer stupidity. That's like filling up your gas tank, driving 5 miles, emptying the rest of your still-good fuel into into a waste container and filling up the tank again.

"Infinite" is obviously an exaggeration, but the amount of uranium in seawater is truly staggering. I don't know how easy it would be to recover, though. Also, once you make the timeframe greater than 50 years or so, unknowns such as the advancement of technology start to have a big impact. We may well have mastered fusion by then, making this all moot.

 

[Chi Meson]

How very significant?

Not that it is a significant percentage of total use of petroleum products, but significant in the way it is used. Petroleum-based fertilizer has provided our agri-business with very cheap fertilizer which will be not-so-very-cheap in the near future. The rising prices of oil byproducts will have a greater effect than we at first imagine.

 

[Jimmy Snyder]

Not that it is a significant percentage of total use of petroleum products, but significant in the way it is used. Petroleum-based fertilizer has provided our agri-business with very cheap fertilizer which will be not-so-very-cheap in the near future. The rising prices of oil byproducts will have a greater effect than we at first imagine.

The main fertilizer raw materials are energy and hydrocarbon feedstock, phosphate rock, sulphur and potassium salts. It is unlikely that there will be a global shortage of any of the raw materials for the manufacture of mineral fertilizers in the foreseeable future, apart from temporary tight supplies due, for example, to an unexpected surge of demand resulting from a loss of production (for example from the flooding of a potash mine).

http://www.fertilizer.org/ifa/statistics/indicators/ind_reserves.asp"
It seems that fertilizer is not a significant percentage of total use of petroleum products and petroleum products are not a significant percentage of total raw materials in fertilizer.