How do I predict rogue waves using simple probability models ?

In summary, the conversation revolved around predicting and analyzing rogue waves for a physics project. The individual had already published some work on the topic but was seeking additional beginner-friendly material. The conversation also mentioned the unpredictability of rogue waves and the recommendation to search for scientific links on Google. Additionally, a recent breakthrough in mathematical modeling of rogue waves was mentioned as a potential resource.
  • #1
fRod57
7
1
Homework Statement
Predicting rogue waves or analysing old events using simple probability models and real time data
Relevant Equations
http://www.ifremer.fr/web-com/molagnon/jpo2000/general.pdf
equations used here (article is in french but I think you'd recognize the equations)
I need to predict an upcoming rogue wave or analyse old rogue wave events using simple probability models and real-time data for a physics high school project.
 
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  • #3
fRod57 said:
I need to predict an upcoming rogue wave
Sorry, no can do. Rogue waves are, well, unpredictable. That's how they earned their name... :smile:
fRod57 said:
or analyse old rogue wave events using simple probability models
That's much more practical. What reading have you been doing about rogue waves in the past?
 
  • #4
berkeman said:
Sorry, no can do. Rogue waves are, well, unpredictable. That's how they earned their name... :smile:

That's much more practical. What reading have you been doing about rogue waves in the past?
None apart the one I already published (which is in French). Could you propose any similar beginner-friendly material ?
 
  • #5
fRod57 said:
None apart the one I already published (which is in French). Could you propose any similar beginner-friendly material ?
I would start with some Google searches and look for the best scientific links in those...

https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=what+causes+rogue+waves

1577840246359.png

https://www.google.com/search?clien...hUKEwiE55zZmOHmAhXTrZ4KHXBnCAQQ4dUDCAo&uact=5

1577840304131.png
 

1. How do rogue waves form?

Rogue waves form when multiple waves with different frequencies and heights combine in a specific way, creating a larger and more powerful wave. This phenomenon is known as wave interference.

2. Can simple probability models accurately predict rogue waves?

Simple probability models can provide a general understanding of the likelihood of rogue waves, but they are not always accurate in predicting the exact time and location of these waves. More complex models that take into account various factors such as ocean currents and wind can provide more precise predictions.

3. What are some common factors that contribute to the formation of rogue waves?

Some common factors that contribute to the formation of rogue waves include strong and opposing ocean currents, winds, and changes in water depth. These factors can cause waves to interfere and amplify, leading to the formation of a rogue wave.

4. Can satellite data be used to predict rogue waves?

Satellite data can be used to detect and track the movement of large waves, including rogue waves. This data can be used in combination with other models and data sources to make more accurate predictions.

5. How can predicting rogue waves help prevent accidents at sea?

By accurately predicting the occurrence of rogue waves, ships and offshore structures can be better prepared and take necessary precautions to minimize the potential damage and danger. This can help prevent accidents and save lives at sea.

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