New 2006 NFL Underdog Theory: Wildcard Predictions & More

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In summary, the conversation discusses a theory about predicting NFL playoff game outcomes based on a rule that states winners must first win as underdogs before losing. The theory is expected to be valid in 2006 and the remaining playoff games serve as experimental validation or falsification. The wildcard results did not support the theory, with no predicted winners. The predictions for the second round and championship games follow the rule, but an anomaly on Saturday and additional counter-indicated results on Sunday lead to the theory being declared falsified. The conversation also mentions possible unknown variables and the difficulty in confirming a mathematical theory for predicting game results. The conversation concludes by suggesting the need for other theories or focusing on a less complex subject.
  • #1
RandallB
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New 2006 Theory
NFL underdog winner theory

Theory has only one rule:
Winners must win once as an underdog before they must then lose.

Remaining NFL playoff games to serve as Experimental Validation or Falsification of theory, expected to be valid in 2006.

Wildcard results:
Rule had no predictive value as no winners had been established only seeding. I.E. (Home field for favorites – Visitor status for all underdogs)

Predictions 2nd round Games:
Patriots won Wildcard but not as an underdog
– Therefore Patriots must win as underdog visitors over Denver.
All other Wildcard Teams won as underdogs
– Therefore they must now lose.
Thus favorites Chicago, Indianapolis, & Seattle to win.

Predictions Championships:
Chicago @ Seattle; Both have won but neither as underdog,
- therefore as underdog in this game Chicago must win.

Patriots @ Indianapolis; Patriots coming off winning as underdog must now lose,
- Therefore Colts and Bears @ Detroit for Superbowl.

Superbowl note:
Chicago will be playing after winning as an underdog,
Sorry Bears

No funding or grants are requested for this Theory,
Theory research investments have already been committed.
No copyright on theory – public domain distribution is authorized.

go Real Blue.

RB
 
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  • #2
Initial testing of the theory produced an anomaly for one of the expected results on Saturday, - expected to be just a random error in observation.
HOWEVER, on Sunday an additional 5 of 7 predicted results were counter indicated:
With only one of seven predictions confirmable, more than enough empirical results are into declare the proposed theory as falsified!

Evaluation of results gives some consideration to some unknown variable being in direct control of the actual results. Understanding such an unknown may or may not be able to provide directly predictable results.

Also a new theory based on measurable ambiguity of results could lend itself to an analogy based on statistically predictable chances.
However a mathematical theory based on predicting probable game results based on some principle of uncertainty would be difficult to confirm. Since, Experimental lab time is only available once a year.

This does allow ample time for additional, more directly predictive, theories to be considered.
Or in the alternative some other area of theory development less complex than the NFL should be considered – like particle physics.

a Real Bummer
RB
 
  • #3
Playoffs, we can predict all we want, but nobody knows what will actually happen. I was way off this week :smile:
 

1. What is the "New 2006 NFL Underdog Theory"?

The "New 2006 NFL Underdog Theory" is a theory proposed by a group of sports analysts in 2006 that suggests underdog teams have a higher chance of winning in wildcard games compared to regular season games. It is based on statistical analysis and has been a topic of debate among sports fans and experts.

2. How does the theory work?

The theory takes into account various factors such as team performance, injuries, and momentum, to determine the likelihood of an underdog team winning in a wildcard game. It suggests that underdog teams have a higher chance of pulling off an upset due to the pressure and intensity of playoff games.

3. Has the theory been proven to be accurate?

While there have been instances where underdog teams have won in wildcard games, the theory has not been scientifically proven to be accurate. It is still a topic of debate and many experts argue that past performances and statistics cannot accurately predict the outcome of a single game.

4. Are there any exceptions to the theory?

Like any other theory, there may be exceptions to the "New 2006 NFL Underdog Theory". There have been cases where underdog teams have won in wildcard games but have gone on to lose in the following rounds. It is important to consider other factors such as team chemistry and coaching strategies when making predictions.

5. How is the theory relevant in today's NFL?

The theory is still relevant in today's NFL as it continues to be a topic of discussion among sports analysts and fans. While it may not be a foolproof method for predicting wildcard game outcomes, it adds an interesting element to the conversation and highlights the unpredictable nature of sports.

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