quadraphonics
vociferous said:Polls showed that a lot more Hillary supporters would vote for McCain if Obama were the nominee than vice versa.
Yeah, but people always say things like that during primary season, even though they don't mean them. They figure that the poll results will cow supporters of other candidates into backing their horse instead. Even if the sentiments are genuine, they still predate the general campaign wherein, again, Hillary will be encouraging her followers to vote for Obama.
vociferous said:I fully expect that most Hillary supporters will end up backing Obama, but the fact remains that some will not, and with many important States likely to be decided by a few votes, this could play a huge role.
This is getting awfully speculative for me. I'll agree that, should the election come down to a question of Florida and Ohio, Obama may be in trouble, but I'm not at all convinced that such will be the case. Nor am I convinced that Hillary wouldn't have just as much trouble in different places.
vociferous said:As for young voters, in recent years, a large upswing in enthusiasm (again, something seen with Kerry in 2004) among the young during the primary is unlikely to translate to a significant increase at the ballot box. The only thing that keeps old people at home on election day is bad weather and Alzheimer's. Young voters always show up in abysmal numbers, and that seems pretty unlikely to change.
Is it possible that young voters might increase their participation in some significant way? Yes. Is it a good bet? Not a chance.
Perhaps you're right, but I can't say that the same argument applies to black voters. Could be an interesting election in certain southern states...