Ok, it finally makes sense, thanks for being patient. One more question which I think I alread know the answer to, but I just want to make sure. Suppose you have the streak we've been using: RRR(b*)RRR(B*)R, and the next ball is R. The chance of that R coming up was 13/37. Now, to find the odds...
I was being sarcastic, because that punk 16 year old posts rude replies to other people, and he completely missed the point.
And I was referring to the chance of getting 21 heads in a row, not 1 head twice.
Maybe I didn't word that right, I know while the odds don't "actually" change, it's still 50/50, but the chance of getting 1,414,513 heads after flipping 1,414,512 in a row heads is astronomical. That's what I meant by counting past flips. I know that an independant flip after this many is still...
And while you might expect that after 10 draws, you would have a ratio of about 1 red to 2 blues (13/37 beforehand, 10/30 after), that isn't the case, because of standard deviation.
Well obviously not, however that's irrelevant to this example.
While it's true nothing has changed about the coin, the odds have changed for the next heads if you're thinking about it in terms of past results: after 1,414,512 flips with the coin and all heads, what now (astronomical of...
So if you agree that the chance of getting 10 heads in a row is 1 in 1024, wouldn't it stand to reason the same logic can somwhow be applied to my question?
Let x = 24/37. Then the chance of
RRR(B+)RRR(B+)RR: x^6(1-x)^2\approx0.92\%
RRR(B+)RRR(B+)RB: x^5(1-x)^3\approx0.50\%
Also, why is the chance of getting RRR(b+)RRR(B+)RR
greater than the chance of getting RRR(B+)RRR(B+)RB, since there are more blue balls than red by almost double...
That would answer my question, except I don't understand why it would be an independant event. Because I'm not just trying to find the next ball, it has to be all the balls I said in that order, so why would that be independant of the past results? I know the number of balls doesn't change, but...
My question is how likely is it to pick B after this
streak: RRR(b*)rrr(b*)r. It has to be this streak, the
next blue ball isn't treated as an independent event.
So after this streak comes up, if the next ball is red,
I win 1 point, if it's blue i lose 2. In other words,
when this situation...
hi everybody, I have no idea how to figure this out and would really appreciate some help. Ok I'll try and explain this as best i can, and if I miss anything or you need more information let me know and I'll try and explain more. Suppose you have 37 balls, 24 blue and 13 red. after each pick the...