Ok, for the record I think that the simplest thing for my case is to compare against a random strategy by taking a list of the odds {a_1, a_2, ...} and money {b_1, b_2,...} placed on each bet and writing a program that will bet randomly. Run it a few times and histogram the profits. Presumably...
Thank you very much, this is very helpful (and annoyingly simple). Apart from central limit theorems and such this approach seems reasonable because it also captures the fact that the profitability of riskier plays (which will increase s) will be harder to determine, I will give it a go tonight...
You are absolutely right. Sports bookmakers typically make no attempt to predict winners and/or the probability distributions of outcomes. Rather, they rely on public opinion and, based on the money coming in from clients, adjust their odds so that they win regardless of the outcome. So if the...
Stephen Tashi, thank you for the reply, it was very helpful. I'm not sure at this stage if my question is reasonably well-defined because I clearly do not know things like the probability distribution of the possible outcomes and even the odds are not constant from event-to-event. I'll see...
Hi everybody,
I'm a physicist, not a statistician, by training and my knowledge of statistics is severely limited. I indulge in sports betting where I typically bet on the exact score of a game. To see whether my approach works I have to know whether I'm winning or not - to be precise, I must...