Hi all, just to address some of the replies so far:
BMV, The Kelly Criterion is just a piece of the answer. I also alluded to it in repy #3, describing what my strategy would be.
PeroK: That's right, but what I'm after is a more precise formulation of how you would choose to play this game. For...
Thanks marcusl, that would be a good starting point, but what is an appropriate updating procedure?
And how do you strike a balance between the uncertainty that an edge exists and missing opportunities to have favorable bets? So how do you strike a balance between the time spent waiting to...
You are given the opportunity to play a game where a coin will be tossed 10,000 times consecutively.
You have a starting bankroll of $1,000,000.
The coin may be biased (you are not given any information as to what the probability or the degree of bias might be). A bet on either heads or tails is...
Hi Stephen. Thanks for the reply.
I was hoping to solve (or at least arrive at a decent practical approximation to a solution) this mathematically by using information as it becomes available.
So say you have a) 0.5, b) 200 and c) 20%. You change this to a) 0.48 for a time and then to 0.52...
You are selling apples from a stand at the market.
You are making a profit to comfortably cover your costs and provide compensation for effort.
Now you are looking to increase profitability.
The aim is to optimize the following variables to achieve maximum (expected) profit:
a) Price for...
I will assume the bets are not correlated, so you are not betting on multiple outcomes within the same event for instance.
For each bet, record the odds bet at, and what you think the true probability should be, then run a Monte Carlo simulation based on your assumed probabilities.
If you...
Not really chiro, I was deliberately taking an extreme view to get the point across.
I do believe that generally speaking, too much emphasis is placed on what people call 'natural born talent'. If you have a parent (or another person during childhood with a very strong influence on you) who is...
How do you distinguish 'genetic compression' and simple upbringing/influence.
I find it very doubtful that highly specific skills (music, art) that are not directly related to survival would be passed on genetically at all.
If I understand the problem correctly, the player of this game always gets a return of at least $1.
To get an equitable price to pay, I used a weighted average. The possible returns are distributed as follows:
P($0) = 0
P($1) = 0.5 [H]
P($2) = 0.25 [TH]
P($3) - 0.125 [TTH]
etc.
You simply...
The simplest way to solve these problems:
1) P (1 boy 1 girl) = 1-P(2 girls) - P(2 boys)
2) P(one child or more inherits disease) = 1-P(no child inherits disease)These are very easy to work out, and don't require the level of complexity of the formulas you are using.