mjsd said:
I kind of like this assessment of the situation. It is better be safe than sorry. After all, if global warming is indeed induced by human activity, it is probably irrevesible.
It for sure is not irreversible by itself, but irreversible "damage" may have been done, such as the end of humanity. In how much this is really "damage" or the ultimate ecologist's victory is a philosophical issue

.Given that the main result of all these climate change models is: a change in temperature (and some other variables) as a function of CO2 release, I guess they are more or less reversible (maybe with some hysteresis), at least when I read the primer about the models on the IPCC website:
http://www.ipcc.ch/pub/IPCCTP.II(E).pdf
The problem I see is that scientists are not being 100% scientific for politics' sake. Should a scientist lie about his science in order to influence "dumb" politicians in the right direction (the direction of "better safe than sorry" ) ?
And perhaps if we start some cutting back now, we may find it easier to adapt, than say 30 years from now, we have no choice but to cut back immensely, causing significant change in our lifestyle, the economy etc immediately. Even if we are wrong (or lucky enough that some other future events make the situation reversible), it would only be a short term loss.
Well, that still remains a political decision. I, for one, am only ready to suffer a little bit for the sake of the hypothetical well-being of eventual humans in 100 years. If I have the choice between leading a miserable life right now, to make Earth a better place to live in 100 years, or live my life decently, but with as probable consequence a disaster in 100 years, I resolutely opt for the second option. Sorry.
Of course, if I have to do a moderate effort, I'm maybe willing to do so. But I won't go back to the stone age just for the sake of the well-being of people that don't even exist yet.
well.. it depends how you look at it. it is "good purpose" if you are concerned about the environment, but it is probably not so good if you are concerned about continual economic growth and domination of your state. Certainly, many are hoping that the status quo (emission target etc.) won't be changed in the near future just for the sake of $$$ and standard of living. so for some it can be really bad should this GW issue turns out to be just a farce. I am sure all of you understand this point better than I do.
Well, this is an issue that shouldn't be neglected. Imagine that we are too careful, and impose such drastic cutbacks that this generates an economical crisis on world scale which triggers terrible conflicts, and total war. First of all, this will probably generate a lot more ecological problems, and moreover, we've now traded hypothetical future wellbeing for immediate misery. I don't think that's a good deal.
So we should be cautious, on both sides. We should try to take the best decision. And you can only take the best decision when you have the best information available - and of course smart and responsable decision takers.
then, the remaining question would be why does the IPCC want to take the "biased" view towards AGW? Does it has the thinking that "it's better be safe than sorry"? or does it want to use this as an excuse to curb the growth of developing countries like China, India fearing that they may become too powerful one day? Or too want to slow the growth in dominance of the USA? OR are those ppl at IPCC just a bunch of lunatics?
I'm not a climate scientist and I take it for granted that there are serious indications about all this stuff. But I've seen also an attitude about the IPCC which, to me as a scientist, doesn't smell good: the lack of critical attitude. I wonder if there's not some group think phenomenon going on in the climate sciences.
That said, I think the issue IS serious. We should take all the measures we can, without doing damage to our way of living. And we can! Nuclear power, for instance, is a good solution, but people - especially ecologists - still don't want to see that. Nuclear power, even in its wildest disaster phantasies, is uncapable of generating an ecological catastrophe as the one that the AGW predictions hold out for us. Even 100 crazy accidents like Chernobyl are a joke compared to what is predicted (100 Chernobyls generate about as many casualties as 1 year of car traffic, btw).
So instead of thinking of "cutback" we should maybe think of "technology change".