News Post Election Polls & Results: The Numbers Thread

[Gokul43201]

Feel free to post any pre-election polls, exit polls, opinion polls, market prices or counting results as they come in.

Here are some links to get you going :

Electoral Votes - a compilation from various sources

The Iowa Electronic Market http://128.255.244.60/graphs/graph_Pres04_WTA.cfm

Projections will be made over the evening and night by CNN, NBC, FOX, and others.

 

[kat]

Here's a link for a nifty http://www.federalreview.com/2004_10_31_blogarchive.htm

 

[Gokul43201]

Here are various current numbers :

Iowa Markets : Kerry = $0.503, Bush = $0.509

Some of the "Battleground States" :

1. NH (4) : Too close to call. K47, B47, N2 (Amer. Res. Gr., Oct 30)

2. PA (21) : http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/pennsylvania.html have K up by 2 to 6, except Gallup, which has B up by 2

3. FL (27) : http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/florida.html . Polls are calling it both ways. Gallup and Zogby give K a lead, while Rasmussen and Strategic Vision are calling it for B.

4. OH (20) : [http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/ohio.html] Too close to call[/URL]. Gallup calling it for K and Zogby, for B (Oct 31).

5. Colorado (9 or 4&5 ) : Too close to call, unless Amendment 36 passes. Zogby (Oct 31) has B up by 1 (B48, K47) statewide.

6. NM (5) : Too close to call. Zogby (Oct 31) has both at 49.

7. HI (4) : B46, K45 as of Oct 20, SMS Research Poll. Large number of undesideds as of that date.

 

[Gokul43201]

Here's a link for a nifty http://www.federalreview.com/2004_10_31_blogarchive.htm

I've got my own little spreadsheet that I made this morning...nothing fancy, but it'll help me keep score.

 

[kat]

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B0F1B48A4%2D9C92%2D45D2%2DAC76%2D0417048569BD%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- An Election Day health-sector rally Tuesday could be tied to hopes that a perceived "market-friendly" President Bush will keep his job, plus renewed investor optimism over some key health-care firms.

 

[kat]

http://www.lancasteronline.com/pages/news/local/4/9483

 

[marlon]

I want to bet for a Bush-victory...

marlon

 

[Gokul43201]

Iowa Electronic Markets : Kerry = $0.578, Bush = $0.401

ARE YOU KIDDING ME ?! :

 

[marlon]

ok, let's bet for a Kerry victory...lol

marlon

 

[Gokul43201]

Indiana, Kentucky, Georgia are called for Bush (34)
Vermont in Kerry's (3)

Viginia and S. Carolina have closed but not yet called.

So, no surprises yet, except perhaps that they need more time to call SC

 

[Gokul43201]

WVa called for Bush

SCORE : B = 39, K = 3

Ohio, NC, SC, VA are too early to call

 

[BobG]

Most significant number so far is the exit polling question. As expected, Kerry is carrying the majority of last minute deciders. Tends to support the idea a lot of 'experts' have that the challenger picks up the majority of the undecided.

 

[Gokul43201]

More states have been called. The winners...

Kerry : VT, MA, CT, DE, DC, MD, IL and (surprise !) NJ (which was expected to be close)
Bush : IN, WV, KY, GA, TN, AL, OK (no surprises here)

SCORE : Kerry 77, Bush 66

 

[Gokul43201]

I'm ready (the Newsies are still suffering from the disaster of the 2000 projections) to call VA and NC for Bush. SC (surprise) is amazingly close (with 12% reporting) !

And the first BIG story : Bush has a 10% lead in Florida with about 25% of precincts reporting !

 

[chroot]

- Warren

 

[Gokul43201]

Now, CNN & MSNBC have called VA, NC and SC for Bush.
The score : Bush = 102, Kerry = 77


With 34% reporting in FL, Bush has a 13% lead. Numbers from Palm-Beach, Miami-Dade and Broward are not in yet...and those should close the gap some, but I think Bush will edge through.

 

[Gokul43201]

Looks to me like Florida will go to Bush, and Pennsylvania to Kerry.

All eyes are on Ohio, which is looking close now (but I'm a little worried, looking at the county numbers )

More states have been called : ND, SD, KS, NE, WY and TX go to Bush, as expected.

Kerry has NY and (all 4 of) Maine.


Score : Bush = 155, Kerry = 112

 

[graphic7]

It was expected that the south and plains states would go for Bush. Remember, Kerry, as projected, is looking good in the North and the west votes aren't in yet.

 

[Evo]

Have you looked at the exit polls on CNN?

In the category of "Most Important Issue", moral values is the number one issue with Americans? That's sad.

Moral Values 21%
Economy/Jobs 20%
Terrorism 18%
Iraq 15%
Health Care 8%
Taxes 5%
Education 4%

 

[graphic7]

Have you looked at the exit polls on CNN?

In the category of "Most Important Issue", moral values is the number one issue with Americans? That's sad.

Moral Values 21%
Economy/Jobs 20%
Terrorism 18%
Iraq 15%
Health Care 8%
Taxes 5%
Education 4%

Sad, but expected. People are idiots.

 

[Gokul43201]

In NY, the #1 issue was Iraq, at 85% !

LA and MS have been called for Bush.

Bush = 170, Kerry = 112

 

[graphic7]

In NY, the #1 issue was Iraq, at 85% !

90 percent of the people that voted for Bush in TN voted for him because of his faith. 80 percent of the people that voted for Kerry in TN voted for his intelligence. Shows which set of voters should be cast off the Earth.

 

[Evo]

The Eastern states are the only section where "morals" weren't the number one issue.

Maybe I need to move back east.

 

[Evo]

90 percent of the people that voted for Bush in TN voted for him because of his faith. 80 percent of the people that voted for Kerry in TN voted for his intelligence. Shows which set of voters should be cast off the Earth.

It does make you wonder, doesn't it?

 

[Gokul43201]

Now I'm getting worried about Ohio.

 

[kat]

very odd and interesting commentary here at the nYT

http://forums.nytimes.com/top/opinion/readersopinions/forums/washington/anelectionnightwebjournal/index.html?oref=login&oref=login

Bush just let a television camera and a “pool” of reporters and photographers into the residential area of the White House, where something absolutely shocking happened.

He pronounced himself confident and predicted he would win.

The point of such a pointless revelation is to buoy the spirits and recharge the resolve of his supporters in western states, where polls are still open.

Much more interesting than his words was his manner. To my eyes, he seemed significantly less rattled than he did around this same time on Election Night four years ago, when I was in the “pool” that went up to see him and his family in the Texas Governor’s mansion. He seemed less uncertain than he did earlier today, when the expressions and words of his aides also seemed shakier than they do now.

I would say that we can conclude, at the least, that Bush has become a better actor. But three positively riveting debates proved that that isn’t the case.

 

[Gokul43201]

Things looking very bad for the Dems... Bush is getting FL and OH...MI and WI don't look good either...

...game over ?

 

[klusener]

definitely, based on the results right now, if i were JFK, i would be practicing my concession speech just about now...

 

[klusener]

If the goddamn California's evs come in, then Kerry's total would look much better than the 112 now...

 

[Gokul43201]

california's not enough

 

[klusener]

i know, but right now his total looks pathetic...

 

[Gokul43201]

California to Kerry, Idaho to Bush

SCORE : Bush = 197, Kerry = 188 (too little, too late)

I can't believe these numskulls on CNN and MSNBC who are calling it close.

Kerry needs a miracle to pull it off from here !

In OH, Bush has a 4% lead, in FL, he's won, though the newsies won't say it until the last vote is counted there.

 

[klusener]

are these predictions?

cnn is giving pennsylvania to kerry... that's good.

 

[Gokul43201]

I gave PA to Kerry about an hour ago.

By my numbers Bush has 260 to Kerry's 216. Bush just needs 10 points among the remaining close states on my list (I've given FL and OH to Bush) : NM, NH, NV, HI, CO, IA and AZ. If Bush wins any 10 votes among these states, he's through - piece of cake.

 

[Saint]

Bush seems to win the election, he is leading.

Americans were scared by OSAMA to vote Bush,
pity Kerry.

 

[klusener]

yeah, it turns out Osama is the October surprise, but in a different way...

 

[Gokul43201]

Okay folks Fox has called AZ (10) for Bush...now it's officially over for Kerry.

 

[graphic7]

FL has also been called for Bush as of now.

 

[Gokul43201]

Kerry is rallying in Wisconsin and Ohio.

Right now, Kerry is down by about 130K votes in Ohio. Only about 50% of the votes in Cuyahoga county (Cleveland) have been counted, and Kerry has a lead of about 95K votes. Assuming the remaining 50% gives Kerry another 100K, he will be short by only 30K, if the rest of Ohio (some 10% of precincts) goies roughly down the middle.

 

[graphic7]

Interesting that CNN hasn't declared FL or AZ, yet. Maybe ABC jumped the gun.

 

[chroot]

Even if Kerry wins Ohio, does he still stand a chance?

- Warren

 

[graphic7]

If Kerry does win Ohio, he'll be in good shape. If he doesn't, however, he'll have to win every other state, including Alaska, Washington, Colorado, etc which is very unlikely. Keep in mind that CNN hasn't declared Florida yet and there's still 1.1 million provisional ballots floating around.

 

[graphic7]

Crap, CNN just declared Florida. Kerry has to win Ohio.

 

[Gokul43201]

If Kerry wins Ohio, he's virtually through...but the numbers in Ohio are looking worse than before. I'm going to stick with my earlier prediction that Bush takes Ohio...probably by about 50,000 votes.

The End(ish)

 

[Moonbear]

Yeah, they're now saying Bush is taking OH. 88% reporting and Bush is still in the lead. The only way Kerry can win is if he sweeps every last state remaining, and gets the House vote, and a few of those remaining states are only showing about 100 votes difference (and several thousand going to third party candidates)! I don't think he'll get all of them anyway, so it looks like pretty grim tonight.

Then again, in 2000, this is about the time I went to bed with Gore projected the winner and woke up to find FL had flipped from blue to red overnight, so I'm hoping something miraculous happens overnight, but won't be holding my breath.

All I can say is don't blame me if Bush makes a bigger mess of the country in the next four years, I voted Kerry.

And it's also looking like Congress is going to remain Republican controlled. That's even more painful...I was at the least hoping for a Democrat controlled Congress to keep Bush in check.

I'm heading to bed. This is so depressing.

 

[Gokul43201]

Final Score : B 286, K 252 (just a guess)

 

[Saint]

if kerry wins Ohio, is he likely to enter whitehouse?

 

[cragwolf]

I'm assuming that OH, NM and IA go to Bush, that seems likely. In that case, I got 3 states wrong: I thought MN, NH and WI would go to Bush. I did recognise prior to the election that MN and NH were my two wildcard predictions, the ones I had least confidence in. WI was very close, it almost went my way. So, in one sense, I'm happy with my predictive skills. In another sense, I'm not, because Bush has been reelected. In yet other sense, it doesn't really matter, because either way, we who are poor, weak and of low intelligence are under the boot of those who are rich, powerful and of high intelligence. Such is the way of the world.

 

[kat]

Highest popular vote...ever. Incredible.

 

[graphic7]

Highest popular vote...ever. Incredible.

Considering Kerry was 3 million votes shy he's also right behind Bush, shattering the Reagan popular vote count of '84, too.