Post Election Polls & Results: The Numbers Thread

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    Numbers Thread
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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around the analysis and reporting of pre-election and exit polls, as well as real-time election results for the presidential election. Participants share various sources of information, including market predictions and state-by-state polling data, while expressing their opinions on the implications of these numbers.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory
  • Technical explanation
  • Debate/contested
  • Mathematical reasoning

Main Points Raised

  • Some participants share links to various polling sources and market predictions, indicating fluctuating support for candidates Kerry and Bush.
  • There are reports of battleground states being too close to call, with varying leads for both candidates in states like Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.
  • Exit polling data suggests that last-minute deciders are leaning towards Kerry, which some participants interpret as a trend that could favor challengers.
  • Participants express concerns about the implications of moral values as the top issue for voters, with differing opinions on the significance of this finding.
  • Some participants speculate on the outcomes in key states, with varying levels of confidence regarding Bush's leads in Florida and Ohio.
  • There are mixed reactions to the media's projections, with some participants questioning the accuracy and timing of calls made by news outlets.
  • Participants express frustration and concern over the perceived electoral landscape, with some suggesting that Kerry's chances are diminishing as results come in.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express a range of opinions and predictions, with no clear consensus on the outcomes of the election or the implications of the polling data. Disagreement exists regarding the significance of certain issues and the reliability of various polling sources.

Contextual Notes

Limitations include the evolving nature of the election results, the dependence on real-time data, and the potential for changes in voter sentiment as more precincts report. Some assumptions about voter behavior and the impact of issues on electoral outcomes remain unverified.

  • #61
So, americans will expect more Terrorists attacks, more death toll in Iraq, more joblessness, more taxes, more insecurity ?
 
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  • #62
No, except for the death toll.

What's your point ?
 
  • #63
what is bush's plan to Solve the problem of iraq?
how long your army will be there?
till you get all their oil ?
 
  • #64
This is off-topic, Saint. Again. If you'd like me to split it to a new thread, let me know.

- Warren
 
  • #65
America can never be World Police,
if you interfere with people's domestic affair more,
you will get more retaliation.

Don't try to split Taiwan from China,
if you continue to sell Taiwan weapon,
China will fight back with stealing more jobs from america.
Don't always critisize china's human right record,
take a look of your own policy on the black people, are they treated fairly?

Imperialism is not fit for all people, China has its own policy, culture, value etc.
Try to understand Islam first before calling people terrorists.

Osama is not dead, he is watching you!
 
  • #66
Saint, if you want to rant, start your own thread. (I say this knowing it will be ignored)



I've come across a strartling statistic (calling it a statistic is a stretch, I've only got 5 data points out of thousands), and call me cynical, or a sore loser, or whatever, but :

In Columbus, Ohio, the number of polling machines per polling place seems to vary directly with the distance to campus or inner city neighborhoods.

My advisor's polling place (in a largely red precinct) had 10 polling machines. The queue never extended outside the building.

Near campus, polling places had 6, 6 and 5 machines in 3 different places. Lines often stretched around the block.

One downtown location had only 3 machines, and this place had to stay open beyond closing time.

Now I'm curious about the number of polling machines per voter at different polling places in medium/large cities...

Anyone else have numbers for me ?
 
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  • #67
Gokul43201 said:
Guess how many times Kerry mentioned his Purple Hearts during the Convention ?
You missed my point. The SBV brought up the purple heart thing because it was something to argue about. But to people who cared about the issue (me), it wasn't the purple hearts that mattered, it was what he did after the war. Kerry didn't realize that and focused his rebuttal on the medals issue. In fairness though, there wasn't much Kerry could have done to convince me he'd changed from the man he was shortly after Vietnam (and indeed, he may well be proud of that).
As for talking about his Vietnam service during the convention...here are the excerpts of his speech that are (in any way) related to his service.
His speech was a long speech. He had a lot to talk about. But his first words were "Reporting for duty" and behind him was a 10 foot photo of him in his uniform (which was there for most of the convention). His service was also mentioned by pretty much everyone else who spoke, and made-up a significant portion of his biography on his site.

His Vietnam service was an important issue and he knew it - he just didn't understand why. He thought it would give him credibility as a military leader (something democrats typically lack), but what he should have known is that the very people he would lead considered it to be a slap in the face.
Now I'm curious about the number of polling machines per voter at different polling places in medium/large cities.
I assume there are state laws regarding registered voters per machine, but I don't know -- interesting question though.

I've got some responses for Saint too, but they're OT, so...no.
 
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