Bayes rule using higher order prior probability

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SUMMARY

This discussion centers on the application of Bayes' rule when the prior probability is treated as a random variable. It is established that if the analysis focuses solely on the expectation or linear functions of the posterior probability distribution, using the expected value of the prior is sufficient. However, for nonlinear measures such as variance, one must compute all potential posteriors based on the range of priors and then derive their variances before taking the expectation.

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Hi

I am asking, if I am trying to make inference using Bayes rule based on a prior probability that is a random variable by itself; is it sufficient to use the expected value of such probability or there are other details.

Thanks in advance.
 
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It depends on what analysis you want to perform on the resulting posterior probability distribution.

If you are only interested in its expectation (or some other linear function of the posterior), you can use the expected value of the prior.

If you also want to calculate some nonlinear measure of the posterior (e.g. its variance) you need to compute all possible posteriors given all possible priors, calculate their respective variances, and then take the expectation of those.

Best wishes,

-Emanuel
 

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