BWV said:
Not sure why you all are attempting to reinvent your own economics here. The notion of intrinsic value is a fallacy...
This isn't new economics, it is old economics - it's Adam Smith. Again, it is
mostly obsolete, but not completely. In our day-to-day lives and investments we don't have to worry about the issue much - we just pay what the market demands if we feel like it. It's pretty much only relevant for extreme situations, and Bitcoin is such an extreme.
But "intrinsic" or not, people base "value" on *something*. I might pick one car over another because they look identical to me but one is priced cheaper, for example. I might buy a stock because I think its price is below a certain multiple of what the company is expected to earn. For most markets, there's benchmarks and things to compare to find value.
The reason Bitcoin varies so widely and the reason it could go to zero is there is *nothing*, whether we call it "intrinsic" or not, from which to calculate a reasonable value for it. It is 100% market forces and zero "fundamentals", "intrinsic", or whatever you want to call the things people normally do to figure out how much to value something.
Karl Menger provided this defintion of value:
value is the importance that individual goods or quantities of goods attain for us because we are conscious of being dependent on command of them for the satisfaction of our needs
Back to the OP, this is the standard by which cryptocurrencies might have a long term value
How do we use that to calculate a long term value of Bitcoin?
That is your definition, but does not hold. It can go to zero - the structure will become worthless at some point in time if not maintained and, depending on the location, the demo costs could offset the land value. Some natural disaster could possibly destroy the land value.
I would have hoped my "fire" exclusion would have made it clear I'm not referring to any kind of decay or act of God here. This isn't about *a* house, it is about *houses*. If we use 10 year old, 1,500 square foot townhouses as our benchmark, the value of such an asset will never go to zero.
By your definition, no patent or copyright holds any value because either time or a better alternative could destroy their value. Someones job skills may be valuable currently but worthless in 10 years because of some advance in technology.
There most certainly is no requirement for "intrinsic value" to be permanent. But humans have permanent needs, so assets based on those permanent needs are likely to permanently have value.
Again, the bottom line reason we're having this discussion is we're talking about Bitcoin. What is your position on the long term viablility of Bitcoin? Do you think there is a chance (small, big, dunno) it could go to zero? Or do you think that like gold it could eventually become a relatively stable long-term store of value? And if so, why? You're arguing a lot of theory here but I see no useful connection to the topic of he thread.