Can Dependent Variables Defy E(X)E(Y) = E(XY) in Probability?

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around the relationship between expected values of dependent and independent random variables, specifically questioning whether the equation E(X)E(Y) = E(XY) can be violated in the case of dependent variables. Participants explore examples and seek mathematical illustrations of this concept.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory
  • Technical explanation
  • Debate/contested

Main Points Raised

  • One participant asserts that for independent variables, E(X)E(Y) = E(XY) holds true and seeks an example where this does not apply for dependent variables.
  • Another participant suggests that the number of hearts and the number of red cards in a poker hand could serve as an example, noting that knowing the value of X affects the expected value of Y.
  • A different example is presented involving a coin flip, where both X and Y take values based on the outcome of the coin. The expected values E(X) and E(Y) are both 0, while E(XY) equals 1/4, illustrating a case where the equation does not hold.
  • One participant expresses appreciation for the coin flip example as a clear proof and seeks clarification on how to demonstrate that this example represents dependent variables.
  • Another participant explains how to show that two variables are not independent by using the probability definition of independence, highlighting a specific case with the coin flip example.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants do not reach a consensus on a single example of dependent variables violating the equation E(X)E(Y) = E(XY). Multiple examples are proposed, and there is ongoing discussion about the nature of independence in the context of the examples provided.

Contextual Notes

Participants discuss the definitions and implications of independence and dependence in probability, but the nuances of these definitions and their application to the examples remain unresolved.

georg gill
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if X and Y are independent then E(X)E(Y)=E(XY)

I have found a lot of examples for this for example if X-values gives tail or head and Y is the sides of a square

but i can't find an example for a dependent function where E(X)E(Y)=E(XY) does not apply and I want to have an example tht shows mathematically that E(X)E(Y)=E(XY) does not apply- Does anyone have such an illustrating example that describers this mathematically?
 
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I think an example would be the case where X gives the number of hearts in a poker hand and Y gives the number of red cards in a poker hand. Here knowing X affects the expected value of Y. Isn't this really a prob/stats question rather than a number theory one, though?
 
The best example is the drastic example. Flip a coin - X=1/2 if the coin is heads, X=-1/2 if the coin is tails. Y=1/2 if the same coin is heads, Y=-1/2 if the coin is tails. E(X)=E(Y)=0 but XY=1/4 regardless of whether the coin is heads or tails, so E(XY)=1/4
 
Office_Shredder said:
The best example is the drastic example. Flip a coin - X=1/2 if the coin is heads, X=-1/2 if the coin is tails. Y=1/2 if the same coin is heads, Y=-1/2 if the coin is tails. E(X)=E(Y)=0 but XY=1/4 regardless of whether the coin is heads or tails, so E(XY)=1/4

thanks! That was a neat efficient proof:)

Thanks both!EDIT: I did unfortunately run into an issue for my self here. How can I show that the quoted example above is not independent?
 
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Office_Shredder, correct me if I'm wrong, but I think in this example you'll want to go about it like this:

In general, the way you show independence is that P[X=x and Y=y] = P[X=x]*P[Y=y]. If you do P[X=1/2 and Y= -1/2], that probability is 0, because the same coin cannot be heads-up and tails-up at once, but P[X=1/2]*P[Y= -1/2] = 1/2 probability of heads*1/2 probability of tails = 1/4. Hence they aren't independent, because 0 != 1/4.
 

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