Please excuse me - I'm not sure we are disagreeing exactly - I hoped to warn you off some unhelpful ways of talking.
s0ft said:
So you mean to say that even if the given interval of time is long 'enough', we still cannot be sure that life starts?
No - I am saying that the word "enough" here is meaningless without some statement of how much time is "enough".
If the universe still has a lot to teach us, that can only further justify my point that anything that can happen will, eventually happen.
It does not mean that anything at all can happen or even that all events that are possible are certain to occur sometime, somewhere.
Some events can exclude other events for instance.
But it does mean that we can expect events which we intuitively feel are unlikely to have occurred - our intuitions about what is likely or unlikely are not very helpful here.
And although I don't and didn't ever mean to say that 'this kind of life' or we 'humans' are the purpose of it all, which I think you believe I have faith in, if you say life can be something entirely different than what we observe, that argument adds to the 'favorable cases' for the chances of origin of 'life', no?
Correct me if I got you wrong.
The unhelpful language here was in referring to the sequence of events as the "right" sequence. It is not clear what this means but it is often used to assign some importance to a particular process above others. Don't use it to argue with Creationists for example.
The possibility that there could be other processes elsewhere does, indeed, add to the favorable cases for the origin of life - though we'd have to extend our definition of "life" to include those other processes.
Some people won't want to.
Can we come up with a definition or test for "life" that does not rely on something anthrocentric?
How would we recognize it if we saw it. It's tougher than it looks. Not everyone counts viruses for example.
I don't think life is terribly unlikely on the scale of the Universe ... but you have to remember what the Universe does to numbers with lots of zeros in them.
I remember someone telling me that their favorite authority, told them that the odds of a star having a planet with intelligent life was one to the number of hydrogen atoms within eight light years of the Sun. He thought that was such long odds it couldn't possibly happen.
Never mind that the number is totally bogus: you can work it out! (~10^150)
Then compare it with the number of stars in the observable Universe (~10^1021).
Those kinds of numbers allow for some pretty long (by intuitive measures) odds to be achievable.
But it does not mean that
anything can happen. We can always find something with really really long odds on the scale of the Universe long. Then there are those things that get ruled out because physical laws turned out a certain way.
Maybe the laws are more like guidelines - but that's one maybe too many: there are rules about that sort of speculation in these forums... our current understanding is that not just anything can happen.
Anyway - that's about all the metaphysics I can handle tonight ;)