PeterDonis said:
Here is the published paper in Science; according to the abstract, their result "is in significant tension with the standard model expectation":
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abk1781
I was not aware that there was any question remaining about the W boson mass, so this new claim is surprising to me. Has there always been significant uncertainty remaining about the W boson mass? Or is there potentially some issue with this new measurement as compared with previous measurements? (The new measurement seems to be inconsistent with previous experimental measurements as well as with the SM expectation.)
THERE IS NO STANDARD MODEL PREDICTION FOR THE W BOSON MASS
The 80,357 ± 6 MeV value is not a "prediction of the Standard Model" it is an electroweak fit of the Standard Model physical constants utilizing data points like the Higgs boson mass and top quark mass, neither of which have a direct functional relationship to the W boson mass in the electroweak portion of the Standard Model of Particle Physics.
See, e.g.,
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1140/epjc/s10052-018-6131-3
The same global electroweak fit procedure suggested that the Higgs boson had a mass of 90,000 ± 20,000 MeV, when the current inverse error weighted global average of the measured real value of the Higgs boson mass is 125,250 ± 170 MeV (
https://pdglive.lbl.gov/Particle.action?node=S126&init=0) with contributing estimates from data used in that fit that ranged from 35 GeV to 463 GeV, each with huge error bars. A global electroweak fit is not analogous to a Standard Model physics calculation or prediction.
The W boson's mass is an experimentally determined free parameter of the Standard Model (in other words, it is an input to the model, not an output).
More precisely, the W boson mass, the Z boson mass, the electromagnetic coupling constant, the weak force coupling constant, and the Higgs vacuum expectation value are five experimentally determined Standard Model physical constants related to each other in
the electroweak portion of the Standard Model that have three degrees of freedom. You can take your pick to some extent which of them you treat as input parameters that are measured, and which you treat as derived values.
The W boson mass is the least precisely determined of these five electroweak constants, but all five of these related Standard Model parameters are known quite precisely (note that the table below which I put together uses the
Particle Data Group global averages).
Parameter | Value | 1 Sigma Error | Part Per 1 Sigma Error |
W boson mass (MeV) | 80,372 | 12 | 6,697.7 |
Z boson mass (MeV) | 91,187.6 | 2.1 | 43,422.7 |
Higgs vev (Mev) | 246,219.65 | 0.06 | 4,103,660.8 |
Fermi's constant | 1.1663787 | 0.000006 | 194,396.5 |
Fine structure constant | 0.007297353 | 1.7E-12 | 4,292,560,333.2 |
The global electroweak fit process is not part of the Standard Model and is really not all that much more than a sophisticated informed guessing game.
Calling a global electroweak fit the "standard model expectation" is nothing more or less than misleading, and the fact that the results were spun this way suggests that the authors want to direct attention away from the real story which is that their measurement is an outlier with respect to other experimental measurements, just as one of their original measurements in 2001 was. If I were a peer reviewer of the
Science article article that was published yesterday, I would have objected strenuously to that assertion.
Likewise, the paper's discussion early on of the mysteries of the Higgs mechanism, dark matter, and extensions of the Standard Model, while not quite as problematic, is likewise gratuitous window dressing and doesn't belong in a paper that is merely reporting an update of a Standard Model constant measurement from 11 year old data.
ADDITIONAL DETAILS FROM THE NEW PAPER AND RELATED ANALYSIS
The body text of the newly announced CDF result clarifies that the bottom line number for their new W boson mass measurement is 80,433.5 ± 6.4 statistical ± 6.9 systemic MeV (a combined uncertainty of ± 9.4 MeV). According to the paper this implies a combined Tevaton of 80427.4 ± 8.9 MeV, and a combined Tevatron and LEP of 80424.2 ± 8.7 MeV. The new result is is exactly the same as one of the the 2001 measurement by CDF (which was also an outlier that was included in but diluted in the current global average) but with a claimed uncertainty of 9.4 MeV instead of 79 MeV.
According to the related press release: "This result uses the entire dataset collected from the Tevatron collider at Fermilab. It is based on the observation of 4.2 million W boson candidates, about four times the number used in the analysis the collaboration published in 2012."
https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/948608 But, to be honest, my intuition is that a claim to shift the combined average up by 50.4 MeV using four times as much data (all at least 11 years old and 25% of it exactly the same data) from the very same machine while reducing the uncertainty by 44% (7 MeV) raises yellow flags.
It is harder to tell than it should be if the newly calculated CDF number included both the D0 experiment data and the CDF data from Tevatron (as the press release seems to imply), or just the CDF data (as the way the data is talked about in the paper itself seems to imply), but as best as I can tell, except in the combined Tevatron number noted above, only the CDF data from Tevatron is being used.
The paper also provides an updated the Z boson measurement at "91,192.0±6.4stat±4.0syst MeV [
ed. combined error 7.5 MeV] (stat, statistical uncertainty; syst, systematic uncertainty), which is consistent with the world average of 91,187.6±2.1 MeV." This is also a source of doubt, rather than confirmation as claimed in the paper. My intuition is that the Z boson uncertainty should be lower than the W boson measurement uncertainty to a larger extent than it is, and instead it was only slightly smaller.
Rather than overturning the Standard Model, all this result should do, at most, is replace the old combined Tevatron value of 80387 ± 16 MeV with a new combined Tevatron value of 80,427.4 ± 8.9 MeV which will pull the global average a little higher than it used to be and tweak the old global electroweak fit.
But, in addition to shifting up the global average, this result will probably actually increase rather than decrease the uncertainty in the overall global average because the contributing data points are now a lot less tightly clustered than they were before relative to their claimed uncertainties, which again undermines the credibility of the assertion that the claimed uncertainties of the new CDF value are correct.
PRIOR EXPERIMENTAL DATA COMPARED
The disagreement with prior experiments is real.
See https://pdglive.lbl.gov/DataBlock.action?node=S043M See also a narrative explanation at
https://pdg.lbl.gov/2021/web/viewer...g.lbl.gov/2021/reviews/rpp2021-rev-w-mass.pdf
If I were inclined to attribute bad motives, which to some extent I am in this case, I'd say that spinning this result as a deviation from the Standard Model is an attempt to distract attention away from how badly their result deviated from other experimental measurements, which is the real story here.
When your result which claims to have only modestly less uncertainty than the prior measurements of the same quantity by multiple independent groups is a huge outlier with respect to everyone else; it is more likely that you or the scientists who are the source of your data, have done something wrong, than it is that you are right and they are wrong. Perhaps, for example, CDF is underestimating the true uncertainty of their measurement, which is very easy to do even for the most sophisticated HEP scientists, since estimating systemic error is as much an art as it is a science (even though estimating statistical error is almost perfect except for issues related to your assumption that the true distribution of error is Gaussian when it in reality usually has fatter tails in studies of past HEP data gathering).
The inverse error weighted global average of best nine most recent independent measurements of the W boson mass prior to this paper is 80,379 ± 12 MeV.
Where does that come from?
Two of those nine measurements are from CDF (
80,433 ± 79 MeV in 2001 and 80,387 ± 19 in 2012) and two more are from CDF's sister experiment from Tevatron called D0 (80483 ± 84 from 2002 and 80375 ± 23 from 2014), with the older values in each case made at 1.8 TeV and the newer values in each case made at 1.96 TeV. The four data point inverse error weighted combined Tevatron average was 80387 ± 16 MeV. Three more superseded W boson masses from CDF and D0 were ignored in the global average and ranged from 80367 MEV to 80413 MeV.
Another four measurements are from the defunct LEP (linear electron positron collider) from 2006 to 2008 at energies from 161-209 GeV with an error weighted average of 80376 ± 33 MeV. The range of the LEP measurements was 80270 MeV to 80440 MeV.
Many far less precise measurements from 1983 to 2018 were ignored in determining the inverse error weighted world average.
One of the measurements is from ATLAS at the LHC is 80,370 ± 18 MeV at an energy of 7 TeV and shares 7 MeV of systemic uncertainty with the Tevatron average.
We should be seeing a Run-2 W boson mass determination from ATLAS, and both Run-1 and Run-2 W boson mass determinations from CMS before too long.
My predisposition is to expect that those results will be more credible than this lagging Tevatron value because the actual experimental apparatus is more state of the art at LHC than it was at Tevatron, and because the best scientists with the most rigorous quality control get assigned to the new shiny data and not the eleven year old archived data from an experiment that is no longer operating.
FOOTNOTE RE DEFINITIONAL ISSUES
The CDF value and all of the other values (except the global electroweak fits) are probably about 20 MeV too high due to a definitional issue in how the W boson mass is extracted from the experimental data.
See Scott Willenbrock, "Mass and width of an unstable particle"
arXiv:2203.11056 (March 21, 2022).