Conditional Probability: an incorrect error detection

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SUMMARY

The discussion centers on calculating conditional probabilities related to chip testing, specifically determining the probability that a chip declared faulty is actually sound. The problem states that the probability of detecting a defect in a faulty chip is 0.95, while the probability of declaring a sound chip as sound is 0.97, with 0.005 of the chips being faulty. The solution involves using Bayes' theorem, leading to the conclusion that the probability P(S|D-) is 0.86, indicating a significant chance that a declared faulty chip is sound.

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  • Understanding of conditional probability and Bayes' theorem
  • Familiarity with probability notation and events
  • Knowledge of total probability theorem
  • Basic statistical concepts from Mathematical Statistics and Data Analysis
NEXT STEPS
  • Study the application of Bayes' theorem in real-world scenarios
  • Learn about the law of total probability and its implications
  • Explore advanced topics in conditional probability
  • Review examples of error detection in statistical quality control
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This discussion is beneficial for students of statistics, data analysts, and professionals involved in quality control and reliability engineering, particularly those working with conditional probabilities and error detection methods.

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Homework Statement


From Mathematical Statistics and Data Analysis 3ed, Rice

1.8 #61
Suppose chips are tested and the probability they are detected if defective is 0.95, and the probability they are declared sound if they are sound is 0.97. If 0.005 of the chips are faulty. What is the probability that a chip that is declared faulty is sound?


Homework Equations



P(A|B) = P(A\capB) / P(B)

P(A) = \SigmaP(A|Bi)P(Bi)

The Attempt at a Solution



Let D- be the event a fault is detected
Let D+ be the event no fault is detected
Let Df be the event a chip is faulty
Let S be the event a chip is sound

P(D-|Df) = 0.95
P(D+|S) = 0.97
P(Df) = 0.005
P(S) = 1 - P(Df) = 0.995

Find P(S|D-) (the answer given is 0.86)

P(S|D-) = P(D-\capS) / P(D-) = P(D-|S)P(S) / P(D-)

So here's where I've been stuck.
First I'd like to know if I've translated the problem correctly.
Secondly how do I find P(D-|S) and P(D-) or am I going about this the wrong way?
 
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P(D-|S) is simple. Suppose a sound chip is tested. There are two possible outcomes of this test, that a defect is or is not detected. These events are D+|S and D-|S. Since you know the probability of one of those outcomes, obtaining the other is trivial.

P(D-) is also simple. Use the formula of total probability, the second of your relevant equations.
 
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