Conditional probability density function

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SUMMARY

The discussion centers on deriving the conditional probability density function for the amount of cash in a bank account at time t+1 (X) based on the amount at time t (Y) and deposits influenced by a log-normally distributed random variable (Z). The equation presented, f_X(x)=∫ f_{X,Y}(x,y)dy = ∫ f_{X|Y}(x|y)f_Y(y)dy, is foundational for understanding this relationship. The key insight is that f_{X|Y}(x|y) can be expressed as f_Z(x-y), indicating that the cash at time t+1 is directly related to the previous amount plus the random deposits.

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  • Familiarity with log-normal distributions
  • Knowledge of integration in probability theory
  • Basic concepts of random variables and their relationships
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drullanorull
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Please help me with this. Any suggestions are greatly appreciated.
Imagine that I have a bank account. X is the amount of cash on the account at time t+1. Y is the amount of cash at time t. The amount of cash depends on the deposits made and on the amount of cash during the previous period. The deposits are made based on a random variable, Z, (stock returns) which has a probability density that is log-normal distributed. My question is what the probability density function for the amount of cash at time t+1 looks like.
f_X(x)=\int f_{X,Y}(x,y)dy = \int f_{X|Y}(x|y)f_Y(y)dy
My problem is how to relate f_{X|Y}(x|y) with the deposits.
Is f_{X|Y}(x|y)=y+f_Z(z)
So that
f_X(x)=\int(y+f_Z(z))f_Y(y)dy

Is this true?
 
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drullanorull said:
Please help me with this. Any suggestions are greatly appreciated.
Imagine that I have a bank account. X is the amount of cash on the account at time t+1. Y is the amount of cash at time t. The amount of cash depends on the deposits made and on the amount of cash during the previous period. The deposits are made based on a random variable, Z, (stock returns) which has a probability density that is log-normal distributed. My question is what the probability density function for the amount of cash at time t+1 looks like.
f_X(x)=\int f_{X,Y}(x,y)dy = \int f_{X|Y}(x|y)f_Y(y)dy
My problem is how to relate f_{X|Y}(x|y) with the deposits.
Is f_{X|Y}(x|y)=y+f_Z(z)
So that
f_X(x)=\int(y+f_Z(z))f_Y(y)dy

Is this true?

X = Y+Z. So given that Y=y, you want the density that X = y + Z = x, or Z = x-y. So
f_{X|Y}(x|y)=f_Z(x-y)
 

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