Coronavirus death toll estimations

[kent davidge]

I was looking for projections on how many will die from the new virus. Unfortunately I found only this site

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/5/21165973/coronavirus-death-rate-explained

but it is outdated as you can see. Perhaps it is because I'm not in the US? So that makes Google hide me a lot of websites from the US.

I know that the situation evolves rapidly, but I presume experts can produce some scenarios to get an approximation on the number of deaths.

Or actually, the only relevant scenario to consider is the one were majority of people stay at home and stores, schools etc remain closed , since that is what we are experiencing in pretty much every country.

Just to add, I know this depends on particularities of each country, like the health care system, average age of the population. So I'm more looking for predictions about particular countries. Like US, UK, etc, rather than the total number of deaths globally.

 

[chemisttree]

Everywhere I see indicates that 1% of reported cases is the expectation unless the healthcare system is overwhelmed. The latest death count is 400 souls with 795 critical or serious cases and 178 recovered. I take “critical or serious” to mean “hospitalized.” That ratio of deaths to critical/serious + deaths + recovered is disturbing and in line with Italy’s numbers. So far it is looking like we will have Italy’s experience here in the US unless drastic measures are enforced now. Nobody is willing to do it.

 

[fresh_42]

The current mortality rates differ a lot among countries: from under 0.01 to more than 0.1.
Possible reasons are:

• start of infection chains: spring break will lead to lower rates than residences for older people
• post mortem testing
• test rate in general. esp. test capacities
• frequency of contacts to endangered groups
• obedience to quarantine and contact regulations
• reporting systems

 

[russ_watters]

So far it is looking like we will have Italy’s experience here in the US unless drastic measures are enforced now. Nobody is willing to do it.

Nobody is willing to do what? Several entire states have shut down all nonessential businesses and even issued "shelter-at-home" orders in some counties and full states. To me, that seems pretty drastic.

 

[chemisttree]

Nobody is willing to do what? Several entire states have shut down all nonessential businesses and even issued "shelter-at-home" orders in counties and states. To me, that seems pretty drastic.

Issuing orders is not the same as enforcing those orders. The scenes this past weekend of crowds in NYC and on the LA beaches, spring breakers, etc... were noteworthy. We have an outbreak at Joint Base Lackland just several miles from my house and still there are crowds shopping the stores without PPE and distancing. Until the National Guard shows up, everyone will believe this is someone else’s disease.

 

[russ_watters]

Issuing orders is not the same as enforcing those orders. The scenes this past weekend of crowds in NYC and on the LA beaches, spring breakers, etc... were noteworthy. We have an outbreak at Joint Base Lackland just several miles from my house and still there are crowds shopping the stores without PPE and distancing. Until the National Guard shows up, everyone will believe this is someone else’s disease.

I'm aware, but "nobody" isn't the same as "not everybody".

While California isn't enforcing the order (not sure about NYC), Pennsylvania is. And of course, most governments are shutting down many of their own services, such as schools that have already been closed for weeks.

"Nobody" is 0% shutdown. I'd bet we're beyond 80% shutdown in my area of PA. No, it's "not everybody", but it is a lot closer to "everybody" than "nobody".

 

[phyzguy]

I was looking for projections on how many will die from the new virus. Unfortunately I found only this site.

This site has a lot of good information on mortality rate. Estimates still vary widely. As for predictions of infection rate, it certainly looks like containment is out of the question at this point, meaning that most of the world will eventually be infected.

 

[chemisttree]

I'm aware, but "nobody" isn't the same as "not everybody".

While California isn't enforcing the order (not sure about NYC), Pennsylvania is. And of course, most governments are shutting down many of their own services, such as schools that have already been closed for weeks.

"Nobody" is 0% shutdown. I'd bet we're beyond 80% shutdown in my area of PA. No, it's "not everybody", but it is a lot closer to "everybody" than "nobody".

Here is what passes for lockdown in Pennsylvania.

“Among those allowed to stay open are gas stations, grocery stores, beer distributors, drugstores and building materials stores. Restaurants and bars can continue to offer carry-out, delivery and drive-thru food and drink service, but not dine-in service.”

Thank god they allowed the beer distributors to remain open! Not what I referred to as “drastic measures” in my post. Drastic measures means doing what was done in Wuhan and its surrounds.

They blocking traffic in your neck of the woods yet?

 

[russ_watters]

Here is what passes for lockdown in Pennsylvania.

“Among those allowed to stay open are gas stations, grocery stores, beer distributors, drugstores and building materials stores. Restaurants and bars can continue to offer carry-out, delivery and drive-thru food and drink service, but not dine-in service.”

Thank god they allowed the beer distributors to remain open! Not what I referred to as “drastic measures” in my post. Drastic measures means doing what was done in Wuhan and its surrounds.

Leaving beer distributors open is odd. But the measures taken so far I don't think we've ever seen before, even in wartime. "Drastic" is qualitative, but regardless of the degree, what's been done so far is a long, long way from "nothing".

...and though not many people are using it anymore, they should close public transportation.

They blocking traffic in your neck of the woods yet?

No, but I don't see a lot of value in that, with most businesses already closed. You can't get Coronavirus while driving (but you can get it at a checkpoint), and the people who work in places that need to stay open need to drive.

Also, massive crowds at Spring Break notwitstanding, I don't have a problem with a sparsely-attended beach. Beaches are pretty inhospitable to virus survival and people tend to practice strict social distancing anyway (again, Spring Break notwithstanding).

 

[chemisttree]

Leaving beer distributors open is odd. But the measures taken so far I don't think we've ever seen before, even in wartime. "Drastic" is qualitative, but regardless of the degree, what's been done so far is a long, long way from "nothing".

...and though not many people are using it anymore, they should close public transportation.

No, but I don't see a lot of value in that, with most businesses already closed. You can't get Coronavirus while driving (but you can get it at a checkpoint), and the people who work in places that need to stay open need to drive.

Also, massive crowds at Spring Break notwitstanding, I don't have a problem with a sparsely-attended beach. Beaches are pretty inhospitable to virus survival and people tend to practice strict social distancing anyway (again, Spring Break notwithstanding).

Bold is mine. Can’t get it while driving is a strawman. You can spread it by driving which was the point. When they locked down Wuhan they blocked traffic into and out of the quarantine zone. Same in Milan.

Same for you in Penn? ANY controls regarding personal vehicular movement and further spread of the disease?

No. This isn’t really effective lockdown. You don’t have to believe me. Listen to the chinese commenting on Italy’s attempts thus far. China’s Vice President of the Red Cross says;

“You are not having very strict lockup policy of the City because the public transportation is STILL WORKING and people are STILL MOVING AROUND and you are still like having dinners and parties in the hotels. And you are not wearing masks!”

Starts at 0:35


I think it applies to the US as well. They close down the hotel dining rooms and meeting rooms in Penn? Keeping people off the street? Requiring EVERYONE outside to wear a mask? Especially note that everyone at the podium is wearing a mask, unlike a certain country’s best in the world task force. I cringe every day I see that totally unnecessarily intimate, mask-less meeting of EVERYONE in charge of everything regarding COVID-19.

 

[chemisttree]

I’m not picking on Hyatt here but the COVID-19 protocol described here in Pittsburgh only mentions refunds, cleaning, and information pamphlets. Free communal breakfast is still available but not the pool.

“The safety and wellbeing of our guests and colleagues is always a top priority. In light of COVID-19 and for precautionary measures, some of the hotel's pool may have limited services until further notice. For inquiries, please contact the hotel directly.”
https://www.hyatt.com/en-US/hotel/pennsylvania/hyatt-house-pittsburgh-south-side/pitxs

Hyatt is probably one of the best hotel chains in the world. They’re off their game a bit.

Enjoy your stay!

 

[Laroxe]

I think we are still working largely on guesswork. We have little idea about the mortality rate because most of the testing has been carried out on people suspected of infection or already hospitalised. They are only just getting started on reasonable population samples.

There are still question marks about the effects of wearing masks, surgical masks are not very useful unless worn by people with the infection and we are still short of the better ones, these should go to the health workers who are most at risk.

Perhaps the best indicators of risk are simple comparisons of the usual mortality rate at this time of year, its only really when the numbers climb above these numbers that you get an indicator of increased risk and the major risk is not from the Corona Virus itself but from the health services being overwhelmed. This means that anyone who might need intensive care is at increased risk, this massively inflates the number of deaths and changes the demographics of the fatalities.

One interesting observation is that there appears to have been a significant reduction in the clinical emergencies that would normally require intensive care, there seems to be fewer heart attacks and strokes turning up at A&E departments. A number of ideas about why this may be have been put forward but it hasn't been investigated, they are to busy with everything else.

I think from Chemisttree's posts the level of lockdown in the US may not be at the level needed to limit the spread, there are already some countries trying to reduce the restrictions without causing a sudden increase in cases. Really the US can't afford to allow it to overwhelm the health services, it could get very messy and we need a lot more information before we can be confident about the way its managed.

 

[Rive]

Perhaps the best indicators of risk are simple comparisons of the usual mortality rate at this time of year...

Italy once, twice
This approach will require less intensive times to carry on but estimations and warnings are already available.

 

[Mary Conrads Sanburn]

COVID-19 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC
Last updated: April 11, 2020, 00:17 GMT
[. . .]
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/