COVID COVID-19 Coronavirus Containment Efforts

[atyy]

It's just based on a half-truth which is often exploited by some anti-vaxxer crooks. The selection pressure on the virus is about immunity, not just about vaccines.
In this regard vaccines (most of them) are far better than the unreliable immunity achieved the 'bio' way.
So travels of the 'bio' immune people should be the concern instead.

When read in context, there did not seem any intent to promote an anti-vax agenda.

 

[Rive]

there did not seem any intent to promote an anti-vax agenda.

And I did not said that either.

do you think it is true for all viruses, or just SARS-CoV-2?

I know that some other human Coronavirus can do it too (as I recall there was a group experiment about this), and I think that there may be further examples amongst the understudied group of 'colds'.

Why do you think this is true?

You mean, at this point this is still in question?

 

[pinball1970]

Why do you think this is true? And do you think it is true for all viruses, or just SARS-CoV-2?

I would say true for the viruses that cause serious disease/death where vaccines are available and where there is a significant risk of infection.
COVID vaccine Globally? – justified
Smallpox Vaccine today in 2021 in the USA? – Not justified (this has been mentioned on pf in a thread, by you possibly? Wrt 911?)
Ebola Vaccine in Congo? – Probably justified. A discussion on pf about that https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/nearing-a-cure-for-ebola.976033/

 

[PeterDonis]

You mean, at this point this is still in question?

It is for me. I want to see a reference, or at least an argument, that vaccines will always give better protection than immunity acquired by having the viruses itself. It is certainly not obvious to me that that will be true for all (or "most") vaccines and all viruses, which is the claim you were making.

The only argument I have seen being made is specifically about mRNA vaccines and SARS-CoV-2: the argument there is that the mRNA vaccines specifically target the spike protein, which is how the virus gets inside cells, any viral mutation that avoids the mRNA vaccine would also make the virus unable to infect people since it wouldn't be able to get inside cells any more. Whereas with immunity acquired by having COVID-19, you don't know what your immune system actually is targeting; it might have learned to recognize the spike protein, or it might have learned to recognize some other part of the virus that is nonfunctional and so could mutate without impairing the infectivity of the virus.

But that argument is specific to the way mRNA vaccines for SARS-CoV-2 work; it certainly doesn't generalize to all (or "most") vaccines and all viruses.

 

[PeterDonis]

I would say true for the viruses that cause serious disease/death where vaccines are available and where there is a significant risk of infection.

How does this imply that vaccines give better protection than having the virus itself and recovering from it? I don't see any such implication. The only implication I see is that, if you haven't been infected, being vaccinated is better than not being vaccinated. But that wasn't the argument @Rive was making that I was responding to.

 

[BillTre]

The only argument I have seen being made is specifically about mRNA vaccines and SARS-CoV-2: the argument there is that the mRNA vaccines specifically target the spike protein, which is how the virus gets inside cells, any viral mutation that avoids the mRNA vaccine would also make the virus unable to infect people since it wouldn't be able to get inside cells any more. Whereas with immunity acquired by having COVID-19, you don't know what your immune system actually is targeting; it might have learned to recognize the spike protein, or it might have learned to recognize some other part of the virus that is nonfunctional and so could mutate without impairing the infectivity of the virus.

Seems like a good argument to me.
One might also expect variation among different people's immune responses.
A person with a weaker immune response might gain more benefit from a more directed immune stimulation like you describe.

 

[Rive]

I want to see a reference, or at least an argument, that vaccines will always give better protection than immunity acquired by having the viruses itself.

This topic, and what I wrote is Covid specific. I can see what caused the misunderstanding (multiple vaccines for the same virus also referenced the 'general' way).

The problem is, that 'bio' immunity for Covid is not reliable. Some asymptotic people got high antibody levels: some none. Some people who got it hard has good levels of antibodies: some none. It's not about 'always'. It's about reliability. It's an unreliable 'sometimes'.
Unlike 'bio', vaccine doses are calibrated to give good, reliable and lasting antibody levels.
Looks like sino-stuff is not that good.
Some vector vaccines can be tricky too, but in general, in case of covid, the 'western' vaccines are giving a far more reliable protection than getting it 'bio'.

This part of the topic started from that half-truth about vaccines generating immunity-bypassing mutants.
Since immunity achieved by vaccines is more reliable in this case => giving less chance to re-infect and infect: keeping the pandemic more curbed, opposing the anti-vaxxer interpretation it's the 'bio' what's troublesome, not the vaccine.

 

[Vanadium 50]

It is for me. I want to see a reference, or at least an argument, that vaccines will always give better protection than immunity acquired by having the viruses itself.

I think the only sound argument is with viruses like rabies, where after infection the patient will never contract it again - because he is dead.

I don't think I buy the argument upthread that the vaccine is better because our bodies respond to the virus differently. Our bodies respond to the vaccine differently as well. Look at the side effect thread. I'd certainly want to see a study. The argument seems to look at only half of the story.

I suppose that in principle, our bodies could develop antibodies against the spike and some other protein and thus be marginally better than a vaccine which immunizes against the spike alone. I don't think I would consider the difference between 95% and 95.000001% protection worth quibbling about.

 

[Ygggdrasil]

Regarding immunity from infection vs immunity from vaccines, one theoretical reason to think that vaccines might be more effective at inducing immunity is that viruses have evolved measures try to hide themselves from the body's immune system while vaccines are designed to stimulate strong immune responses. Furthermore, the prime-boost strategy used by most of the vaccines might be more effective at inducing long term immunity (though we don't have a lot of data on long term immunity yet).

Empirically, an observational study in Denmark identified 11k people infected during the first wave of COVID-19 and tracked whether they were infected during the second wave of infection. They found previous infection conferred 80.5% protection from reinfection (and a 93% protection against symptomatic infection). This level of protection is similar to that reported for the more effective vaccines (e.g. Pfizer, Moderna, Novavax). However, the study did find that previous infection was not as effective at protecting older adults (age > 65) from subsequent infection (~50% protection) whereas the vaccines above showed no signs of reduced efficacy in older individuals.

So, for younger individuals, it seems like there is a similar amount of protection from previous infection vs vaccination, but in older individuals, vaccination likely provides stronger protection than prior infection.

On the issue of the evolution of variants in vaccinated populations, one leading hypothesis on the evolution of the variants is that arise during long term infection of immunocompromised individuals (see my previous post for more discussion and citations to the scientific literature). This idea fits with general thinking about natural selection. It has been observed (for example, in studies of the evolution of antibiotic resistance in bacteria), that low levels of selection give the best chance for new traits to evolve. If there is no selection, there is no pressure for new variants to take over the population. Similarly, high levels of selection are problematic for the evolution of new traits because 1) if selection is too strong, the organism just dies off before resistant variants are able to arise and 2) mutations that might provide new traits (e.g. antibody resistance) usually also compromise the function of the protein, so these neofunctionalizing mutations often need compensatory mutations to come along to restore the function of the protein. High levels of selection impose a high cost to these neofunctionalizing mutations, which stops them from accumulating in the population.

Long term infection of an immunocompromised host would provide a perfect environment where the virus is exposed to selection by the human immune system, but that selection is too weak to eliminate the virus. This gives the virus the opportunity to accumulate mutations until eventually a set of mutations arise that allow it to get around the immune system and replicate more quickly than the original virus.

Under this hypothesis, the greater number of people infected, the greater the chance that the virus might find such a suitable host where this type of evolution can occur. Increasing the population of vaccinated individuals would decrease the number of vulnerable individuals and limit the spread of the virus, lowering the number of people carrying the virus, lowering the probability that the virus could evolve new variants. Having fully vaccinated people in the population would present the "strong selection" case discussed above, which would likely present challenges to the evolution of new variants.

Consistent with this idea, preliminary data from Public Health England suggests that the Pfizer vaccine seems to protect against new variants such as alpha (B.1.1.7) and delta (B.1.617.2). It's likely that these variants spread throughout the world primarily because of their increased transmissibility, not their ability to get around pre-existing immunity.

 

[atyy]

Consistent with this idea, preliminary data from Public Health England suggests that the Pfizer vaccine seems to protect against new variants such as alpha (B.1.1.7) and delta (B.1.617.2). It's likely that these variants spread throughout the world primarily because of their increased transmissibility, not their ability to get around pre-existing immunity.

In that article, the second dose difference between alpha and delta variants is about 6%, but the first dose difference is about 15%. What do you think about the suggestion that the long interval between first and second doses in the UK gave delta additional help? @PeroK gave estimates in this post in another thread of vaccinations with first and second doses in the UK at the start of May, when delta's advantage started becoming apparent there.

 

[atyy]

However, the study did find that previous infection was not as effective at protecting older adults (age > 65) from subsequent infection (~50% protection) whereas the vaccines above showed no signs of reduced efficacy in older individuals.

In a different Danish study, vaccine effectiveness was different for long-term care facilities (LTCF residents) and frontline healthcare workers (HCW). There were many differences between the groups, so they don't know whether age was a factor, but they do discuss the possibility that age is a factor.

"This could be explained by the higher vulnerability and age distribution in our cohort, a median age of 84 years in LTCF residents compared to 52 years among the trial participants. It is also evident from studies of influenza vaccines, that vaccines are less effective in the elderly."

 

[morrobay]

Some good news from this popular article : In addition to this virus evolving to a common flu. ' There is likely a dose response between virus exposure and disease severity. A person exposed to a small dose of virus will be more likely to get a mild case of Covid 19 ' https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/05/210520174200.htm

 

[Astronuc]

COVID-19 cluster worsens in Australian city - Sydney - or How not to contain a pandemic
https://apnews.com/article/lifestyl...iness-travel-82991e404f40b05b89308fa27a417111

SYDNEY, Australia — A state government minister has been infected with COVID-19 and another minister is in isolation as a cluster in the Australian city of Sydney worsens.

New South Wales Agriculture Minister Adam Marshall said he was told on Thursday that he had tested positive after dining with three government colleagues on Monday at a Sydney restaurant after an infected diner.

All four lawmakers had been attending Parliament as recently as Tuesday.

Health Minister Brad Hazard said he was self-isolating after being exposed to a potential case at Parliament House.

Colombia hits 100,000 confirmed COVID-19 deaths, president blames anti-government protests! Yikes!

ALBANY, N.Y. — New York will lift more COVID-19 restrictions when the state of emergency expires later this week, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said Wednesday.

New Yorkers will still have to wear masks on public transit, hospitals, nursing homes, correctional facilities and homeless shelters, in accordance with federal guidance.

I would sure wear a mask in an enclosed meeting with people.

BERLIN — Germany’s disease control center says the delta variant accounted for more than 15% of Coronavirus infections in the country by mid-June, with its share roughly doubling in a week.

The Robert Koch Institute said in a weekly report Wednesday that the more contagious delta variant’s share in sequenced samples rose to 15.1% in the week ending June 13. That compares with 7.9% a week earlier.

The alpha variant, first detected in Britain, remained dominant in Germany, though its share declined to 74.1% from 83.5%.

GENEVA — Swiss authorities are vastly easing measures aimed to combat COVID-19 and relaxing some key requirements facing incoming travelers, as case counts and deaths from the pandemic have plunged in Switzerland in recent weeks.

Among the new steps effective Saturday, the Federal Council said work-from-home rules and the requirement to wear masks outdoors will be lifted. Restaurants will also no longer have to limit the number of patrons that can dine together.

The Swiss government said people from the European Schengen area will no longer be required to quarantine upon entry to Switzerland.

LISBON, Portugal — The Lisbon region’s recent surge in COVID-19 cases is powering ahead, with new infections pushing Portugal’s number of daily cases to a four-month high.

Portugal on Wednesday reported almost 1,500 new cases, with two thirds of them in the region of the capital where some 2.8 million people live.

 

[Astronuc]

I want to see a reference, or at least an argument, that vaccines will always give better protection than immunity acquired by having the viruses itself.

I had heard that acquired immunity is not necessarily as effective as the immunity developed from the vaccine, which is apparently one reason that the CDC and NIH encourage those who had a COVID-19 infection get the vaccine. Individuals do respond differently to the vaccines.

There are studies trying to discern why acquired immunity seems less effective than vaccination immunity. One concern is the new variants, for which vaccinated folks will likely need a booster later this year.

For example, How Immunity Generated from COVID-19 Vaccines Differs from an Infection
https://directorsblog.nih.gov/2021/...-covid-19-vaccines-differs-from-an-infection/

A key issue as we move closer to ending the pandemic is determining more precisely how long people exposed to SARS-CoV-2, the COVID-19 virus, will make neutralizing antibodies against this dangerous coronavirus. Finding the answer is also potentially complicated with new SARS-CoV-2 “variants of concern” appearing around the world that could find ways to evade acquired immunity, increasing the chances of new outbreaks.

Now, a new NIH-supported study shows that the answer to this question will vary based on how an individual’s antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 were generated: over the course of a naturally acquired infection or from a COVID-19 vaccine. The new evidence shows that protective antibodies generated in response to an mRNA vaccine will target a broader range of SARS-CoV-2 variants carrying “single letter” changes in a key portion of their spike protein compared to antibodies acquired from an infection.

These results add to evidence that people with acquired immunity may have differing levels of protection to emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants. More importantly, the data provide further documentation that those who’ve had and recovered from a COVID-19 infection still stand to benefit from getting vaccinated.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34103407/

Not a scientific study, but an opinion ostensibly based on evidence - Why COVID-19 Vaccines Offer Better Protection Than Infection. Vaccination offers longer, stronger immunity, says virologist Sabra Klein.
https://www.jhsph.edu/covid-19/arti...s-offer-better-protection-than-infection.html

The NY Times reports ‘Natural Immunity’ From Covid Is Not Safer Than a Vaccine
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/05/health/covid-natural-immunity.html
I haven't read the article.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/faq.html?s_cid=10482:vaccine after covid:sem.ga:p:RG:GM:gen:PTN:FY21

you should be vaccinated regardless of whether you already had COVID-19. That’s because experts do not yet know how long you are protected from getting sick again after recovering from COVID-19. Even if you have already recovered from COVID-19, it is possible—although rare—that you could be infected with the virus that causes COVID-19 again. Studies have shown that vaccination provides a strong boost in protection in people who have recovered from COVID-19.

Interesting commentary - https://www.medpagetoday.com/opinion/marty-makary/92434

Racaniello: I think it's an interesting question and there's no one answer because every virus is slightly different. For example, the human papillomavirus, the vaccines we have make amazing immunity, better than immunity you get from natural infection, because there's so much protein in those vaccines. And you end up having great mucosal immunity, which is what you need there. On the other hand, other vaccines allow infection without disease. Of course, the polio vaccines were only tested to prevent polio, not to prevent infection. That's all we cared about.

Now for SARS-CoV-2, yes, having other proteins in the mix is a good idea. I think it depends on the severity of the disease. We did a paper 6 months ago which studied people who had died from COVID. So this was a very serious disease. And their lymph nodes had no germinal centers, which means no memory B cells to SARS-CoV-2. Even though they had antibodies, they had very low affinity antibodies.

Apparently HPV is a virus that one can contract again after an infection, but much less likely if one has the vaccine.

 

[Ygggdrasil]

In that article, the second dose difference between alpha and delta variants is about 6%, but the first dose difference is about 15%. What do you think about the suggestion that the long interval between first and second doses in the UK gave delta additional help? @PeroK gave estimates in this post in another thread of vaccinations with first and second doses in the UK at the start of May, when delta's advantage started becoming apparent there.

Yes, the data suggest that the UK's decision to prioritize first doses over second doses put more people at risk than if they had followed the recommended dosing schedule. The data also suggest that the UK should prioritize second doses for vulnerable populations before they proceed with more relaxation of social distancing and other infection control measures. For more discussion see: https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n1346

In a different Danish study, vaccine effectiveness was different for long-term care facilities (LTCF residents) and frontline healthcare workers (HCW). There were many differences between the groups, so they don't know whether age was a factor, but they do discuss the possibility that age is a factor.

"This could be explained by the higher vulnerability and age distribution in our cohort, a median age of 84 years in LTCF residents compared to 52 years among the trial participants. It is also evident from studies of influenza vaccines, that vaccines are less effective in the elderly."

The Phase 3 clinical trial of the Pfizer vaccine observed a 100% vaccine efficiency for those > age 75 (though this was based on a fairly low # of people, N = 774 vaccinated individuals > age 75) and real world observational data from Israel indicated a 95% protection for those > age 70 (N = ~80,000 vaccinated individuals > age 70). Similar findings have been shown for the Moderna mRNA vaccine.

I'm not sure why the Danish study shows lower vaccine efficiency in LTCF residents vs HCWs. One possibility is that LTCF residents are not representative of older adults and may have more conditions that might reduce vaccine effectiveness (e.g. have conditions or take drugs that cause them to be immunocompromised). Another possibility is that, because the article notes that 86% of LTCF residents were fully vaccinated, the LTCFs reached herd immunity, so unvaccinated residents also experience protection from the vaccinated residents.

 

[PeroK]

Yes, the data suggest that the UK's decision to prioritize first doses over second doses put more people at risk than if they had followed the recommended dosing schedule. The data also suggest that the UK should prioritize second doses for vulnerable populations before they proceed with more relaxation of social distancing and other infection control measures.

The "vulnerable" half of the UK population (about 31 million people who were prioritised) have had both vaccinations. That is done. Relaxation of social distancing has been postponed by four weeks until the 19th of July.

The UK has fully vaccinated 46% of the total population. This compares with 45% for the US, 32% for Germany, 27% for Italy and France. There may be reasons other than vaccination schedule, therefore, that have caused the Delta variant upsurge.

Finally, the UK policy to give all vulnerable people the first vaccine may have saved many thousands of lives, as the Alpha variant was predominant at the time. This was completed by the end of March. Since then, the hospitalisation and fatality rates have remained very low.

The current outbreak is predominantly among young unvaccinated people and school children, hence not immediately resulting in significant hospitalisations and deaths (*).

We're not quite as stupid as you Americans think we are!

(*) I haven't found the figures for how many once-vaccinated people have tested positive. This is a critical piece of information.

 

[atyy]

(*) I haven't found the figures for how many once-vaccinated people have tested positive. This is a critical piece of information.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...ars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201

There's partial information in Table 4 on p12 of https://assets.publishing.service.g...ants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_16.pdf

 

[pinball1970]

This topic, and what I wrote is Covid specific. I can see what caused the misunderstanding (multiple vaccines for the same virus also referenced the 'general' way).

The problem is, that 'bio' immunity for Covid is not reliable. Some asymptotic people got high antibody levels: some none. Some people who got it hard has good levels of antibodies: some none. It's not about 'always'. It's about reliability. It's an unreliable 'sometimes'.
Unlike 'bio', vaccine doses are calibrated to give good, reliable and lasting antibody levels.
Looks like sino-stuff is not that good.
Some vector vaccines can be tricky too, but in general, in case of covid, the 'western' vaccines are giving a far more reliable protection than getting it 'bio'.

This part of the topic started from that half-truth about vaccines generating immunity-bypassing mutants.
Since immunity achieved by vaccines is more reliable in this case => giving less chance to re-infect and infect: keeping the pandemic more curbed, opposing the anti-vaxxer interpretation it's the 'bio' what's troublesome, not the vaccine.

I did not understand where @PeterDonis was going with this, I think I do now (reading back through the posts) but see it as a moot point.
No is Suggesting we consider natural immunity are they?
Just that "natural immunity" may be "better" in the long run for protection against Covid in the future but getting there is not the worth the risk now. CCU, long COVID, NHS cripped, death.

 

[Astronuc]

NEW DELHI—India is warning about new versions of the highly infectious Delta variant of the Coronavirus that are spreading around the country, containing a mutation that the original didn’t have.

Indian officials have dubbed new versions of the variant containing the mutation Delta Plus. Delta Plus—with the mutation causing concern designated K417N—has been detected in at least 11 countries, including the U.S., U.K. and Japan, according to government health agency Public Health England.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/india-warns-of-new-versions-of-delta-variant-spreading/ar-AALrizl

More here: https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/covid-delta-variant.1004265/page-2#post-6507156

K417N mentioned here - https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/sars-cov-2-mutations.998345/

 

[pinball1970]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/india-warns-of-new-versions-of-delta-variant-spreading/ar-AALrizl

More here: https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/covid-delta-variant.1004265/page-2#post-6507156

K417N mentioned here - https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/sars-cov-2-mutations.998345/

Looking at the figures you would think things are moving in the right direction.
There are still issues in terms of education, primary care and Vaccines.

 

[mfb]

Long COVID in a prospective cohort of home-isolated patients

We found that 52% (32/61) of home-isolated young adults, aged 16–30 years, had symptoms at 6 months, including loss of taste and/or smell (28%, 17/61), fatigue (21%, 13/61), dyspnea (13%, 8/61), impaired concentration (13%, 8/61) and memory problems (11%, 7/61).

The sample size is not large, but it's following most (82%) who tested positive in Bergen (Norway) in February to April 2020, so it largely avoids sampling bias issues.

 

[atyy]

https://www.factcheck.org/2021/06/s...ter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=social-pug

"Shi, however, has https://www.sciencemag.org/sites/default/files/Shi%20Zhengli%20Q&A.pdf denied having the virus or any of its potential precursors and says that no one in the lab has tested positive for the coronavirus, nor do they have antibodies against it. If that’s true, then there’s no way SARS-CoV-2 came from her.

...

As it stands, though, some scientists, while still supportive of further investigation, say there is little to no reason to suspect a lab is the source of SARS-CoV-2 — and focusing too much on the possibility is diminishing the chances of finding out what happened.

“If we’re going to get the answer, we have to do it with some degree of diplomacy,” Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said in a podcast with the New York Times. “Because if we want to be part of the team that goes out there and finds out is there a connection with an animal that might have been brought in for many, many, many miles away into the Wuhan markets, we’re going to have to do that in collaboration with the Chinese.”"

 

[nsaspook]

More outbreaks and 'lockdowns' in Australia.


What is their Covid-Zero exit strategy?


At what point do you decide to open up like Singapore did?

https://www.business-standard.com/a...fe-with-covid-19-pendemic-121062400135_1.html

The deadly coronavirus may never go away, but it is possible to live "normally with it in our midst", Singapore's three ministers of a multi-ministry task force on coronavirus said on Thursday as they outlined plans for the country's transition to a new normal.

They said with enough people vaccinated, COVID-19 will be managed like other endemic diseases such as the common flu and hand, foot and mouth disease in Singapore.

A road map is being drawn up to shift to this new normal, and it will be done in tandem with achieving certain vaccination milestones, said the co-chairmen, Minister for Trade and Industry Gan Kim Yong, Minister for Finance Lawrence Wong and Minister for Health Ong Ye Kung.

The priority in the next few months will be to prepare Singapore for life with COVID-19 as a recurring, controllable disease, they were quoted as saying in a report in The Straits Times.

"It has been 18 months since the pandemic started, and our people are battle-weary. All are asking: When and how will the pandemic end?" said the ministers.

 

[Ygggdrasil]

More outbreaks and 'lockdowns' in Australia.

What is their Covid-Zero exit strategy?

At what point do you decide to open up like Singapore did?

Australia's vaccination rate is much lower than countries like the US or Singapore, so they have a lot of work to do before they can start opening up:

https://ourworldindata.org/explorer...true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=USA~SGP~AU

 

[morrobay]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06...t-spread-in-fleeting-moment-nsw-vic/100238680. Is "fleeting contact" for real? Reports of delta variant transmission in 5 to 10 seconds while just walking by an infected person. Are there any virus transmission studies in past with other viruses that would support this claim?

 

[atyy]

At what point do you decide to open up like Singapore did?

Singapore has not yet opened up, those are just early plans. Our vaccination rate among the elderly is low (~70% in early May) compared to the US (87% in June), Israel (~90% in April), and the UK (greater than 90% in June)

 

[mfb]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06...t-spread-in-fleeting-moment-nsw-vic/100238680. Is "fleeting contact" for real? Reports of delta variant transmission in 5 to 10 seconds while just walking by an infected person. Are there any virus transmission studies in past with other viruses that would support this claim?

This seems to be based on one to three cases. I'm sure there have been infections from an affair, illegal activities or other secret contacts, so we should expect a handful of cases where people claim they just walked past each other because that's the only thing captured on camera. Or maybe the infection happened elsewhere and contact tracing found an unrelated event.

 

[atyy]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06...t-spread-in-fleeting-moment-nsw-vic/100238680. Is "fleeting contact" for real? Reports of delta variant transmission in 5 to 10 seconds while just walking by an infected person. Are there any virus transmission studies in past with other viruses that would support this claim?

That article also refers to the kappa variant (B.1.617.1), but at least from the UK data, that may not be as transmissible as delta, so maybe it is more what @mfb said in post #5327.

One thing to note is that although airborne transmission (compared to droplet transmission) is still thought to be rare, it is increasingly likely as ventilation (with outdoor air replacing indoor air) becomes poorer.

 

[nsaspook]

Singapore has not yet opened up, those are just early plans. Our vaccination rate among the elderly is low (~70% in early May) compared to the US (87% in June), Israel (~90% in April), and the UK (greater than 90% in June)

I know those are plans but they also seem to pretty firm decisions on a path forward in the near term future from an isolation based strategy. Australia seems to be Covid Limbo due to the slow vaccine rates and the increasing power of variants to evade quarantine measures resulting in a continuous series of restrictions to keep community spread to near zero.

https://www.theatlantic.com/interna...ovid19-zero-asia-hong-kong-quarantine/619231/

The variants now spreading in some Asian countries, says Andrei Akhmetzhanov, an assistant professor at National Taiwan University’s College of Public Health, are a result of higher incidence of disease in countries that had struggled to contain the virus earlier in the pandemic. Now these harder-hit countries are protected by vaccines, but others that did a much better job of suppressing the virus initially are not and, perversely, are more vulnerable to the threat of new variants.

Pollack told me he took “a little bit of offense” to the narrative of life reverting to pre-pandemic norms in some countries, while others seemingly remained trapped in the onerous routines of pre-vaccine life. Without the luxury of the vaccine, he said, the U.S. would see its “number of cases skyrocketing,” and the situation would be “unbelievably disastrous.”

The US paid a very high price early for those pre-pandemic norms with very few of the variants in the world today originating from the US.

 

[atyy]

I know those are plans but they also seem to pretty firm decisions on a path forward in the near term future from an isolation based strategy. Australia seems to be Covid Limbo due to the slow vaccine rates and the increasing power of variants to evade quarantine measures resulting in a continuous series of restrictions to keep community spread to near zero.

The variants are more transmissible, but I'm unsure whether that really explains evasion of quarantine measures. Maybe that's the reason in Australia, but in Sinagpore we're still having a (relatively small) third wave now with tightened measures compared to March this year, which I wonder whether it is due in part to quarantine measures not being quite properly implemented. One way to tell would be if we knew whether there are many more clusters seeded by delta than by other earlier variants, relative to the number of arrivals of the various variants from overseas.

Another reason I'm not sure delta is that much more transmissible is that one estimate of its advantage (ie. is it due to increased transmissibility or to increased resistance to vaccines) indicate that when resistance to vaccines is taken into account, the transmissibility increase of delta likely lies between 1.1 and 1.4 times. The top end of the range would be quite an advantage, but the middle of the range is not that big.

 

[Rive]

Or maybe the infection happened elsewhere and contact tracing found an unrelated event.

While this kind of 'mistake in measurement' may happen, it's also can be expected that with strict protective measurements in place simple 'random' events with low chance to get more attention.
I don't know if it happened already, but I think there will be cases reported about suspected surface transmissions too.

 

[atyy]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/feat...a-lab-scientist-at-wuhan-institute-speaks-out
The Last–And Only–Foreign Scientist in the Wuhan Lab Speaks Out
Virologist Danielle Anderson paints a very different picture of the Wuhan Institute.

 

[Astronuc]

A Missouri woman who refused to get a COVID-19 vaccine because she was afraid of its side effects died in hospital last month after contracting the Delta variant, her mother told local news outlets.

Tricia Jones, a 45-year-old mother of two from Kansas City, died on June 9 after a month in hospital on a ventilator.

Her mother, Deborah Carmichael, told local media that Jones was concerned about the vaccine after hearing "a lot of horror stories."

"She was afraid of the side effects, I think ... I, myself, when I had the shot, it was rough, so it scared her and freaked her out. So she didn't want to do it. I couldn't convince her," Carmichael said, according to Newsweek.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/missouri-woman-didnt-want-covid-144312388.html
Another unnecessary and preventable death.

She must have gotten sick during late April by virtue of being on a ventilator from early May through early June. And she was relatively young.

 

[Vanadium 50]

An interesting article in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, titled Disparities in COVID-19 Vaccination Coverage Between Urban and Rural Counties — United States, December 14, 2020–April 10, 2021, by Murthy et al.

Fully 1/3 of all people receiving vaccinations got vaccinated (first dose) in a county other than the one on which they live. One-tenth received it in a non-adjacent county.

In rural Vermont (VT #1 in vaccination), 80% of those vaccinated went to another county.

 

[Astronuc]

Fully 1/3 of all people receiving vaccinations got vaccinated (first dose) in a county other than the one on which they live. One-tenth received it in a non-adjacent county.

In rural Vermont (VT #1 in vaccination), 80% of those vaccinated went to another county.

That would be my wife and me. In my case, I used Walgreens, although not the one about 1/2 km from my house, but one about 40 km away, because of availability and schedule. Once one got the shot, then one is/was supposed to return to the same facility. I give the state a D grade with respect to the vaccination program; it was poorly coordinated.

 

[Vanadium 50]

I also used Walgreens, and again, not the one within walking distance, but more lie 8 km rather than 40. It seems to be the 5th closest to me. I could have gotten it at work, and by "work" I mean a great big tent outside of work - I would not be allowed inside.

I am not surprised at the logistics complications. We have been told that the one thing you must absolutely never, ever, ever do is mix vaccines. So we set up a distribution plan that in theory makes this impossible: you get both doses at the same place, each place has just one kind of vaccine, and you can't schedule Dose #1 until your site is assured a Dose #2 will be there when needed.

This worked according to plan - it appears the number of mingled vaccines is in the 10^-7 ballpark. We don't know how many more people would be vaccinated if they had easier access. The 5th nearest Walgreens to French Lick, Indiana (yes, that's a place) is 35 km away. Now, how many more people would have been vaccinated if we allowed a mingling rate of 10^-6 or 10^-5? We will never know. We don't even know if it is better to not be vaccinated at all than to be vaccinated with two different products, although I have my suspicions.

 

[Vanadium 50]

Another interesting paper is Bradley et al. Are We There Yet? Big Data Significantly Overestimates COVID-19 Vaccination in the US arXiv:2106.05818v1.

The point of the paper is that we have survey data that allows one to estimate vaccination rates, and despite very large data sets, the surveys don't predict the data well. The authors argue, paraphrasing, you can't replace good data by lots and lots of bad data. Well, you can. You just shouldn't.

Some technical issues are identified - for example, vaccination rates are negatively correlated with rurality, and rurality is negatively correlated with home internet access, so one would expect that surveys overestimate vaccination rates,

They note that the fraction of vaccinated (V), hesitant (H) and willing (W) individuals must sum to 1, and discuss three models of who is undersampled:

• uptake: W and H are both higher than surveys report
• hesitancy: H is twice as large as the surveys show (the shy Tory effect)
• access: W is three times as large as the surveys show, possibly due to correlations like I mentioned above.

They stress that the data do not distinguish between these scenarios. They point out that if the effect is access, 20% of the population are willing but have found barriers - distance, time, whatever, to be too great, (To them I would say "Who cares about some waitress in a diner in Pig's Knuckle, Arkansas? If she were important, she'd be living in Manhattan, where the 5th nearest Walgreens is 2000 feet away, and her job as a Social Media Influencer would let her take off half an hour whenever she wants!")

 

[atyy]

We don't even know if it is better to not be vaccinated at all than to be vaccinated with two different products, although I have my suspicions.

I'm sure we all guess that it should be better to mix than not to be vaccinated (same reasoning as still giving at least one vaccine dose to those who have been infected once before). Anyway, there's been reports about a trial which showed that mixing AstraZeneca with Pfizer was better than two doses of AstraZenrca: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021...hod-boosts-immune-response-of-astrazeneca-jab

 

[russ_watters]

An interesting article in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, titled Disparities in COVID-19 Vaccination Coverage Between Urban and Rural Counties — United States, December 14, 2020–April 10, 2021, by Murthy et al.

Fully 1/3 of all people receiving vaccinations got vaccinated (first dose) in a county other than the one on which they live. One-tenth received it in a non-adjacent county.

In rural Vermont (VT #1 in vaccination), 80% of those vaccinated went to another county.

That's interesting, but I'm struggling to find meaning. That was during the first and second phases. A lot of old people got vaccinated at home, whereas the people who work with them got vaccinated at the same place, which is their place of work (nursing homes). Hospitals, similar. Do people tend to work in the county where they live?

I was in the 'everyone else' group and got my vaccines in different places, neither of which is the county of my residence.

 

[russ_watters]

Once one got the shot, then one is/was supposed to return to the same facility.

I am not surprised at the logistics complications. We have been told that the one thing you must absolutely never, ever, ever do is mix vaccines. So we set up a distribution plan that in theory makes this impossible: you get both doses at the same place, each place has just one kind of vaccine, and you can't schedule Dose #1 until your site is assured a Dose #2 will be there when needed.

No, not impossible, just not convenient (not to be confused with "inconvenient"). I got my two vaccines from different chains in different counties because I wanted a shorter drive for the second. It was plenty easy to do.

 

[Vanadium 50]

Do people tend to work in the county where they live?

Not in NYC or DC, for sure. LA is another story. LA County is more populous than 41 states.

but I'm struggling to find meaning.

I don't have an answer other than "those were not the numbers I expected". I don't think they were the numbers the vaccine planners expected either.

 

[AlexCaledin]

"Salivary glands were reported as a virus reservoir for prevalent diseases such as herpes... Viral replication within the SGs seems to be an efficient dissemination strategy as the contaminated droplets expelled during coughs, sneezes, and speech are mainly composed of saliva excreta...
. . .
Our findings demonstrate that salivary glands are a reservoir for SARS-CoV-2"

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/path.5679
________________________________________________________________________
- does that mean that the usual injection vaccines may be quite ineffective against the virus replication in that main SG reservoir?

 

[Astronuc]

Do people tend to work in the county where they live?

There was a 10 year period when I commuted 47 miles one way to work in a different county, then a period of 20 years where I lived 7 miles from the office, so I worked in the same county (two companies in two different states). Then another 3 year period where I lived about 2 miles from my office, but now I work remotely, so technically work in the same county in which I live.

My parents did most of their lives.

 

[atyy]

"Salivary glands were reported as a virus reservoir for prevalent diseases such as herpes... Viral replication within the SGs seems to be an efficient dissemination strategy as the contaminated droplets expelled during coughs, sneezes, and speech are mainly composed of saliva excreta...
. . .
Our findings demonstrate that salivary glands are a reservoir for SARS-CoV-2"

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/path.5679
________________________________________________________________________
- does that mean that the usual injection vaccines may be quite ineffective against the virus replication in that main SG reservoir?

I'm not sure about the specifics of salivary glands, but that reminds me of similar discussions about the vaccine being able to reduce the severity of disease even if it does not prevent infection. Immunity that prevent reinfection is called sterilizing immunity, and is due to neutralizing antibodies reaching appropriate parts of the body.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/08/25/four-scenarios-on-how-we-might-develop-immunity-to-covid-19/
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02400-7
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2020.611337/full (includes discussion of salivary glands)
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.21.108308v1

 

[Astronuc]

VOX, July 6, 2021 - How Taiwan held off Covid-19, until it didn't
https://www.vox.com/videos/22561185/pandemic-playbook-taiwan-covid-19-vaccine-quarantine

In December 2019, Taiwan‘s government learned that at least seven atypical pneumonia cases had been reported in Wuhan, China. Because of Taiwan’s proximity to China and the number of back-and-forth flights between the two countries, it was expected to have the second-highest number of Covid-19 cases worldwide.

Instead, Taiwan has had one of the lowest Covid-19 death rates in the world [through 2020 and into May 2021]. Thanks in part to a sophisticated, digitized health care system and a mandatory two-week quarantine for all travelers, life in Taiwan went on with relative normalcy. But then, in May 2021, a new wave of cases threatened the country’s success.

 

[Ygggdrasil]

Here's a nice article in published in the journal Nature with some outlooks on the future of SARS-CoV-2, drawing from our experience with other similar viruses:

After the pandemic: perspectives on the future trajectory of COVID-19
Telenti et al. Nature. Published online July 8, 2021
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03792-w

Abstract:

There is a realistic expectation that the global effort in vaccination will bring the severe acute respiratory syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic under control. Nonetheless, uncertainties remain about the type of long-term association the virus will establish with the human population, particularly whether the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) will become an endemic disease. Although the trajectory is difficult to predict, the conditions, concepts, and variables that influence this transition can be anticipated. Persistence of SARS-CoV-2 as an endemic virus, perhaps with seasonal epidemic peaks, may be fueled by pockets of susceptible individuals and waning immunity after infection or vaccination, changes in the virus through antigenic drift that diminish protection, and reentries from zoonotic reservoirs. Here, we review relevant observations from previous epidemics and discuss the potential evolution of SARS-CoV-2 as it adapts during persistent transmission in the presence of a level of population immunity. Lack of effective surveillance or adequate response could enable the emergence of new epidemic or pandemic patterns from an endemic infection of SARS-CoV-2. There are key pieces of data that are urgently needed in order to make good decisions. We outline these and propose a way forward.

 

[Astronuc]

Delta variant's rise plunges Europe into uncertainty — and offers a warning to the U.S.
https://news.yahoo.com/delta-varian...and-offers-a-warning-to-the-us-090002409.html

BARCELONA — Last month, as Europe finally lifted COVID-19 restrictions, the mood was jubilant across the continent. Outdoor mask mandates and curfews were dropped, Americans were cleared to resume travel to tourist mainstays, and hopes rose that life would quickly return to normal.

The swift spread of the Delta variant, however, has upended all of that wishful thinking and is offering a warning to the U.S.

Fast becoming the dominant strain of COVID-19 across Europe, Delta is wreaking havoc in Spain, Portugal and the United Kingdom. Spain alone reported nearly 44,000 cases on Tuesday, doubling the number recorded one week ago. Trying to blunt the effect of the strain that is expected by August to account for 70 to 90 percent of all cases in the EU, countries on the continent are clamping on new restrictions to counter a mutation that is at least twice as infectious at the variety that shuttered the world in 2020.

In France, President Emmanuel Macron announced on Monday that patrons must now present “health passes” showing full vaccination or a negative COVID test to enter bars, cafés, restaurants, theaters or museums. Greece and Portugal have imposed similar requirements for those wishing to dine out or check into hotels. In the Netherlands, nightclubs and discos, closed for a year, opened for mere days before Prime Minister Mark Rutte ordered them shut again.

Seems like we're on another upswing.

https://news.yahoo.com/superspreader-explosions-continue-plague-pandemic-090018886.html

 

[mfb]

Germany's case counts are still low for now. One +1500 outlier with the last update (some artifact of the weekly cycle probably), but otherwise the last two weeks were below 1000 per day.

The race is vaccinating more people vs. unvaccinated people spreading the delta variant.

 

[Astronuc]

ABC News is reporting more severe COVID-19 cases in children. The Delta variant is suspected. Mississippi health officials report 7 children in ICU of whom two are on ventilators.



New York state has reported one more fatality in a child 0-9 years of age after months without a fatality in that age group. The number are small (16 fatalities), but a couple of parents lost their child.

​

Delta variant about 58% of COVID-19 cases in US: CDC​

 

[Vanadium 50]

The number are small (16 fatalities), but a couple of parents lost their child.

That is sad, but I think it needs to be placed in perspective. That's about the number of children killed by lightning every year (slightly more - lightning is 12 or 13) Do we ban outdoor activities?

Rare events make for good "Man Bites Dog" attention-grabbing stories. They do not make for good public policy.

Since I have the floor...let me also rant against the delta bugbear. I would argue that there is no action that should be taken for delta that shouldn't also be taken for "regular". India's problem with Demon Delta wasn't that it was delta. It was that their vaccination rate was under 5% at the start of their wave.

While I hate to say good things about Canada in general and Ontario in particular, Ontario is half fully vaccinated and something like 80+% of those eligible have received at least one dose. Covid there is mostly delta, and deaths are down to ~5/day. (Down from a peak or 60-65). That's 1.6% of the total deaths - on par with Parkinson's.

Vaccinate and delta will not be a problem.