COVID COVID-19 Coronavirus Containment Efforts

[Vanadium 50]

positivity rate does not equal infection rate unless you are testing a random sampling of the population.

Agreed. But it shows (and your plot shows more directly) that the number of tests is changing dramatically over time. In that context, one shouldn't conclude that a change in the number of positive tests is due to a change in the number of infected.

I think we have discussed in another contest (Pennsylvania?) that different populations being tested have different positive (and presumably infected) rates and one can see wiggles in these plots as these samples are added - especially when they are added on a single day. I didn't find statistics on those tested, but those who test positive skew 4 or 5 years older than the population as a whole.

The death rate is flat. That's delayed by two weeks or so it does tell us something about the conditions in early June, but won't tell us much about the reason for the uptick happening ~now.

 

[russ_watters]

Agreed. But it shows (and your plot shows more directly) that the number of tests is changing dramatically over time. In that context, one shouldn't conclude that a change in the number of positive tests is due to a change in the number of infected.

The two sides of the coin are not equal/exactly opposite:
1. A decrease in positive test rate does not necessarily imply a decrease in actual new cases.
2. An increase in positive test rate does imply an increase in new cases.

Combining the case count and rate:
1. An increasing case count with a decreasing case rate may or may not mean the actual new cases are increasing.
2. An increasing case count with an increasing case rate does almost certainly mean the actual new cases are increasing.

I think we have discussed in another contest (Pennsylvania?) that different populations being tested have different positive (and presumably infected) rates and one can see wiggles in these plots as these samples are added - especially when they are added on a single day.

Yes, I've pointed it out for Pennsylvania or more specifically Montgomery County, but those wiggles smooth themselves out with time and larger sample sizes. E.G., the dramatic uptick in cases in Montgomery County on the day they got the results from testing every prisoner did not register at the state level. It's very unlikely that a sudden, substantial, ubiquitous and unreported change in testing policy has happened in the past week in the US to cause the uptick we're seeing now.

The death rate is flat. That's delayed by two weeks or so it does tell us something about the conditions in early June, but won't tell us much about the reason for the uptick happening ~now.

Yes, we'll have a much better idea in a few weeks. There's also hospitalization/ICU rates which are also rising in some states, but I don't know that there's a national count.

 

[Vanadium 50]

I don't quite follow your argument. Your first #2 seems contradicted by your second #1.

Your second #2 I agree with, insofar as your sample is representative. If you were going county-by-county in NYS (and this is an extreme example for illustrative purposes) starting in Brooklyn and working your way upstate you would incorrectly conclude things are improving much faster than they actually are.

 

[russ_watters]

I don't quite follow your argument. Your first #2 seems contradicted by your second #1.

Your second #2 I agree with, insofar as your sample is representative.

1-1. A decrease in positive test rate does not necessarily imply a decrease in actual new cases.
2-1. An increasing case count with a decreasing case rate may or may not mean the actual new cases are increasing.

The first one has one criteria and the second has two. Maybe the language should have been more similar to make the alignment clearer. A decrease in positive test rate can obviously result from a decrease in actual new cases. But a decrease in positive test rate can also result from a testing rate that increases faster than a simultaneous increase in actual new case rate.

E.G. if your testing criteria is pretty well targeted(and isn't changed) and the positive rate drops from 10% to 9% while the number of positives doubles, odds are you are testing more people because more people fit the criteria because more people have the disease.

 

[WWGD]

Welcome to the club

I half seriously wonder if some sort of version of windshield wipers for glasses would make sense. Could be dangerous to walk around with during rain, with low visiility.

 

[Astronuc]

But the positivity rate is falling:

According to the Texas Tribune article I cited, "The positivity rate — or the ratio of cases to tests, presented by the state as a seven-day average — reached 9.76%, back to the level it was at in mid-April." I believe it had been down around 3%.

Where we are now - https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?region=US

 

[DrClaude]

I half seriously wonder if some sort of version of windshield wipers for glasses would make sense.

 

[Ygggdrasil]

Looking at the US as a whole is probably not so useful for detecting a new virus hot spots. Until recently numbers in the US have been dominated by hot spots like New York, so the dynamics of the US statistics have largely reflected what is going on in New York. However, when looking for new outbreaks, we want to see signs of (initially small) increases in places where there are many fewer initial infections. Some of these dynamics can be seen better when breaking the US down into geographical regions:

There are many regions that show steadily decreasing COVID-19 hospitalizations, but there are also regions that show relatively flat hospitalizations (the West) or increasing hospitalizations (the South and Southwest).

Instead of looking at just one metric like cases, it's probably useful to look at a combination of statistics to see what's going on. For example, see my post from last week comparing Texas and California. While both states show increasing number of cases, Texas shows an increased fraction of positive tests in recent weeks (suggesting that the increase in cases is not due solely to an increase in testing) along with an increase in COVID-19 hospitalizations. In contrast, hospitalizations and the fraction of positive tests in CA were flat, suggesting that the increase in cases was likely due mostly to an increase in testing.

It is pretty clear from the data that there are some areas of the country (e.g. Texas and Arizona) that are experiencing significant community spread, which appears to be showing exponential growth in the number of COVID-19 hospitalizations.

These data are also consistent with a study I posted about back in April. The study, which tracked the course of recent influenza epidemics in Australia, showed that the outbreaks generally had earlier outbreaks in high density urban centers (with large amounts of international travel) and later, as those initial location were recovering from their peak in infections, the disease would spread to affect areas of lower population density. Similar dynamics seem to be at play in the US.

 

[russ_watters]

According to the Texas Tribune article I cited, "The positivity rate — or the ratio of cases to tests, presented by the state as a seven-day average — reached 9.76%, back to the level it was at in mid-April." I believe it had been down around 3%.

Where we are now - https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?region=US

The cases and positive % in PA and my local area appear to have bottomed-out and started rising again as well, despite my area still being in the "yellow" phase and preparing to go into the "green" phase tomorrow.

Meanwhile, we finally have an API for a limited cell-phone based tracking system, but no app to use it, voluntary or mandatory. And no robust manual contact tracing system either.

I wonder which state will be the first to cave and how.

 

[Vanadium 50]

Looking at the US as a whole is probably not so useful for detecting a new virus hot spots. Until recently numbers in the US have been dominated by hot spots like New York

I got beaten up for saying just that. But it's true.

Even regions seem to be too big. The case can be made that some states are too big - Missouri's timeline seems to hinge on three places: St. Louis, Kansas City, and meat processing in Saline County. Utah had two - one near SLC and one near Bluff. (I see now there may be a third near Bear River).

The problem with this line of reasoning is that it leads to the conclusion that this is a disease that preferentially hits cities.

 

[Astronuc]

The problem with this line of reasoning is that it leads to the conclusion that this is a disease that preferentially hits cities.

Isn't it more accurate to reason that the disease is more likely to spread in places where people congregate, particularly without wearing masks or social distancing, and such activities are more likely to occur in cities or metropolitan areas, i.e., areas of high population density?

Places where people congregate are: businesses (office buildings, particularly those with elevators, which are more likely found in cities), retail establishments, transportation centers, transportation systems (trains, subways, buses), entertainment venues (e.g., movie theaters, concert halls, . . .), gymnasiums (where people tend to exhale vigorously), restaurants, bars, and clubs. Churches would be another place where people congregate in close proximity, but churches are found throughout the nation(s). Meat packing and food processing plants are also areas of congregation, but they are usually in rural areas.

The virus would be less likely to spread if people would wear masks, which is not universally practiced (as I have witnessed on numerous occasions in several states and many locales).

Another factor with respect various examples mentioned above is the likelihood of interaction with folks from outside the community. Blaine county (Idaho) has a high rate of cases compared to surrounding counties, because there are numerous folks from outside of the state traveling to the county and apparently bringing the virus with them.

To do a thorough analysis of the spread of the virus, one would have to document the numbers of people wearing masks and not, and compare rate of positive cases in those areas with high and low rates of people wearing masks while congregating. That is not going to happen.

 

[Vanadium 50]

Isn't it more accurate to reason that the disease is more likely to spread in places where people congregate, particularly without wearing masks or social distancing, and such activities are more likely to occur in cities or metropolitan areas, i.e., areas of high population density?

If you like. I suspect "number of close interactions" is closer to the relevant factor than "where people congregate". But we're still talking about "cities".

 

[gleem]

I do not know if this has been reported but the Florida Health Department's COVID dashboard has not been updated fora week. However, weather.com seems to be able to provide info on Florida and my county's active cases and deaths.

 

[Vanadium 50]

However, weather.com seems to be able to provide info on Florida and my county's active cases and deaths.

Cloudy with a chance of Covid? A 40% chance of infection today?

 

[gleem]

What if we didn't have the internet?

 

[BillTre]

There are allegations that the Florida state government is manipulating it virus statistics for political ends.
Here is a page (or more) of links on this subject.

I consider this a data quality post and not a political story (however some might not).

 

[bob012345]

What if we didn't have the internet?

Well, some of us remember not having an Internet. Or cell phone. Or PC. Life was good. Slower, but good.

 

[mfb]

The virus would be less likely to spread if people would wear masks, which is not universally practiced (as I have witnessed on numerous occasions in several states and many locales).

There is a correlation between mask regulations and cases recently, but (a) all the caveats about cases apply and (b) a correlation can have many sources.

https://www.inquirer.com/health/cor...html?outputType=amp&__twitter_impression=true

It's interesting how the US and Europe's countries differ. Countries in Europe had one wave, roughly at the same time, with rapidly falling cases afterwards. The various US states all follow wildly different patterns.

----

Germany's new cases increased a bit. New cases on top, estimated reproduction rate at the bottom:

I don't see anything similar in surrounding countries.

 

[mfb]

I had a closer look at the cases in Germany, apparently they are from a few localized outbreaks only. This includes 1500 employees at a single meat processing plant (Tönnies) and 120 in a single apartment complex (German). Most places have fewer than 5 new cases per 100,000 per week, where 5 would correspond to ~120 cases per day in Germany. Everything above that is from a few regional clusters.

 

[kadiot]

What is your thought about steam inhalation?

It is medicine absorption also. That is why the person must put in a blanket over his body whilst sitting down naked waist above in order to absorb the medicines placed with or in the water. There is no studies yet that find it as bad or ineffective against covid19. The aerosolization effect is a mere hypothesis placed forward. If there is, let us see the abstract and that it has been peer studied.

Let us be clear: It is not a cure as a ventilator is not. For me, it is a prophylaxis and a treatment at the onset of symptoms. And also to our health department, steam falls when cooled or is evaporated.

 

[Vanadium 50]

What is your thought about steam inhalation?

No evidence that it helps and plenty that there are side effects. You shouldn't advocate it.

 

[russ_watters]

I wonder which state will be the first to cave and how.

It's Texas. Texas is now reversing course and closing businesses down again:

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott issued an executive order today that limits certain businesses and services as part of the state’s effort to "contain the spread of Covid-19."

Texas is among at least 11 states seeing a 50% increase or more in cases compared to the previous week.

Here is what the order includes:

• All bars that get more than 51% of their gross receipts from the sale of alcoholic beverages are required to close at 12:00 p.m. today.
• These businesses may remain open for delivery and take-out, including for alcoholic beverages, as authorized by the Texas Alcoholic Beverage Commission.
• Restaurants can remain open for dine-in service, but their capacities can not exceed 50% of total listed indoor occupancy, beginning on Monday.
• Rafting and tubing businesses must close.
• Outdoor gatherings of 100 or more people must be approved by local governments, with certain exceptions.

“As I said from the start, if the positivity rate rose above 10%, the State of Texas would take further action to mitigate the spread of Covid-19,” Abbott said in a statement. “At this time, it is clear that the rise in cases is largely driven by certain types of activities, including Texans congregating in bars. The actions in this executive order are essential to our mission to swiftly contain this virus and protect public health."

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news...26-20-intl/h_a7c96d40058684912bc493dec54ddd50

 

[gleem]

Florida just reported 8942 cases a 79% increase over their last two worst days four weeks from the day they reopened bars and restaurants.

 

[nsaspook]

CDC update:
https://www.statnews.com/2020/06/25...-on-americans-facing-risk-of-severe-covid-19/

The new advice, timed to influence behavior going into the July 4 weekend, came as CDC Director Robert Redfield acknowledged serology testing the agency has conducted suggests about 20 million Americans, or roughly 6% of the population, has contracted Covid-19. Redfield said for every person who tests positive, another 10 cases have likely gone undiagnosed.

While the 20 million estimate is far higher than the figure on the CDC’s Covid-19 website, it still represents a fraction of the country’s population, Redfield said.

“I’m asking people to recognize that we’re in a different situation today than we were in March, in April, where the virus was being disproportionately recognized in older individuals with significant comorbidities and was causing significant hospitalizations and deaths,” he said.

“Today we’re seeing more virus. It’s in younger individuals. Fewer of those individuals are requiring the hospitalizations and having a fatal outcome. But that is not to minimize it.”

 

[Ygggdrasil]

It's Texas. Texas is now reversing course and closing businesses down again:

It was pretty apparent that the state was on this course a week ago when the governor was insisting that there was no reason to be alarmed.

 

[nsaspook]

Interesting study.
https://www.pasteur.fr/en/press-are...transmission-among-children-students-teachers

In late April 2020, scientists at the Institut Pasteur, with the support of the Hauts-de-France Regional Health Agency and the Amiens Education Authority, carried out an epidemiological survey on 1,340 people linked to primary schools in Crépy-en-Valois, in the Oise department. Thanks to the cooperation of the people of Crépy-en-Valois, the survey, which made use of serological tests developed by the Institut Pasteur, revealed that the proportion of primary school students infected by the novel Coronavirus was 8.8%. Based on some cases of infection detected in the students before the schools closed, it appears that the children did not spread the infection to other students or to teachers or other staff at the schools. The results were published online on pasteur.fr on June 23, 2020.

 

[nsaspook]

Second wave down under?
https://www.thejakartapost.com/news...ets-second-wave-of-toilet-paper-hoarding.html

Australia's supermarket chains on Friday reintroduced purchase limits on toilet paper and other household items as a spike in Coronavirus cases in the state of Victoria set off a fresh round of panic-buying over fears of a new stay-at-home order.

Woolworths Group Ltd and Coles Group Ltd, which together account for two-thirds of Australian grocery sales, said they were once again limiting purchases of toilet paper and paper towels to one or two packs per person after photos circulated on social media showing empty shelves in stores.

 

[mfb]

There is no studies yet that find it as bad or ineffective against covid19.

There are also no studies that find wearing blue/red striped socks bad or ineffective against covid-19. Because why would someone do such a study?
Please limit this thread to serious topics.

 

[Vanadium 50]

There is no studies yet that find it as bad or ineffective against covid19.

That's simply false. https://factcheck.afp.com/inhaling-steam-will-not-treat-or-cure-novel-coronavirus-infection
If you want to see the downside, https://www.thelancet.com/journals/...0)31144-2/fulltext?dgcid=raven_jbs_etoc_email

Furthermore, in this age of the internet when things can be looked up in seconds, there is simply no excuse for this. As I said earlier, you shouldn't advocate this.

There are also no studies that find wearing blue/red striped socks bad or ineffective against covid-19. Because why would someone do such a study?

A parade of misinformation, that's for sure. I find myself thinking of this as "Kadiocy".

 

[Vanadium 50]

Second wave down under?

As I said before, price-gouging is the solution to hoarding.