COVID COVID-19 Coronavirus Containment Efforts

[OmCheeto]

Just looking at the graph, it looks to me like there is a negative correlation overall (have you calculated the correlation coefficient for the data?).

0.026
(my apologies for taking so long. I'm fairly certain I've never run across "correlation coefficient" in my studies, and had to figure out what it was. I used the first wiki reference I could find.)

I think the better thing to do is to sum this into deciles

Not sure if I did this right.

I'm 99.9% confident that the maths is correct. My spreadsheet has a "Show R² Value" function when I make it display a linear trendline and the "r²" values match my "r" values in all 10 cases.

As to how to interpret this bar-graph, um, I'm going to need some assistance here.

It looked to me like decile #3 has a really nice "r" number(0.76). So I removed just one of the data points(Bronx NY) and "r" went down to 0.30. Removing the next two(Philadelphia PA and Nassau NY) changed "r" to -0.15. I stuck me as odd that 3 entries out of 25 could have such a large effect.

In other words, do you analyze each individual decile, or do you look at them as a collective?
Or perhaps groups? Deciles 4 and 5 seem to be not that different in population sizes, yet the coefficients are polar opposites. Ditto with deciles 3 & 4, 6 & 7, and 1 & 2.

 

[dlgoff]

Why haven't states made COVID-19 vaccinations required for schools?
https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/parents/records/schools.html
By State:
https://www.cdc.gov/publichealthgateway/healthdirectories/healthdepartments.html

 

[Vanadium 50]

Why haven't states made COVID-19 vaccinations required for schools?

Because the EUA is for people 16 and up.

 

[dlgoff]

Because the EUA is for people 16 and up.

Yes, but there are trials now for kids as young a 6 months. Do you think that after that maybe vaccinations for COVID will become mandatory for US kids in order to enroll in elementary school?

 

[Borg]

I didn't think that an emergency use vaccine could be mandated.

 

[Vanadium 50]

Do you think that after that maybe vaccinations for COVID will become mandatory for US kids in order to enroll in elementary school?

Probably not. Measles kills more kids (worldwide) and its not mandatory.

 

[dlgoff]

Probably not. Measles kills more kids (worldwide) and its not mandatory.

It is in the US.
https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vpd/mmr/public/index.html

 

[Vanadium 50]

There are plenty of unvaccinated kids - that's where the measles outbreaks come from.

By "mandatory" they mean "unless you don't want to".

 

[dlgoff]

There are plenty of unvaccinated kids - that's where the measles outbreaks come from.

View attachment 282915

By "mandatory" they mean "unless you don't want to".

Okay, maybe world wide.

 

[Ygggdrasil]

I didn't think that an emergency use vaccine could be mandated.

There are arguments on both sides of the issue:

Federal law prohibits employers and others from requiring vaccination with a Covid-19 vaccine distributed under an EUA
https://www.statnews.com/2021/02/23...-a-covid-19-vaccine-distributed-under-an-eua/

‘Authorization’ status is a red herring when it comes to mandating Covid-19 vaccination
https://www.statnews.com/2021/04/05...19-vaccine-red-herring-mandating-vaccination/

 

[russ_watters]

[April 12, 2021]
We're a bit behind what I was predicting overall, mostly due to the J&J vaccine continuing to not ramp up. It just started to ramp at the beginning of April, from about 100,000 doses administered per day, to 350,000 as of a few days ago. If it continues that ramp rate, it won't meet the 95M goal...

We could reach 5 million/day by the end of May, but that probably won't even happen. We're at 3 million/day now...

I've seen in my graph of the running totals that the distribution pipeline is starting to lengthen, which may be a result of starting to "run out of people to vaccinate" in Phase 1.

These are looking a week or so behind, but again we'll run out of people to vaccinate anyway before we get to them. We'll start to find out in a few weeks just how much vaccine hesitancy there is.

The J&J pause really threw a monkey-wrench into all of this, and it is impossible to tell how the pause affected the peak vaccination rate beyond simply establishing the date of the peak. The US's peak vaccination rate over a week was 3.22 million/day, in the week ending April 13, the day before the pause. At that time, the J&J vaccine accounted for 460,000 per day.

We're now running out of people to vaccinate, but it is tough to tell how much the J&J pause affected the timing of it. The pause took about 3 days to become effective, but even at that, the rate of vaccinations has dropped smoothly since then, to about 2 million/day as of 5/6. President Biden's directive was for "everyone else" to be made eligible by April 19. Assuming a backlog of "everyone else's" of about a week, one might have expected the rate to peak around April 26, about two weeks later than it actually did.

Even after being reinstated, J&J vaccinations are only back up to about 80,000 /day (though still slowly rising), so the pause totally destroyed the J&J vaccination effort. And reinstating it hasn't turned the total vaccinations/day needle back positive. Using myself as an example of the impact on the rates/timing, the pause caused me to re-schedule and change from J&J to Pfizer, delaying my first dose by 5 days and full vaccination by 3.5 weeks.

Overall, first doses peaked at 1.66 M/day on April 1st and were down to about 700,000 a week ago. Second doses peaked at 1.46 M/day on April 22 and are down to 1.25 M/day. 118M fully vaccinated is 45% of those aged 16+. That's not good enough. I don't expect the rates to continue their rapid decay, as up until a few weeks ago people have been pushing to be vaccinated. Even two days ago I drove 30 miles for my second dose and waited in line an hour for it. I think we'll soon settle into a somewhat steady rate of people being pulled to be vaccinated. But it might only be half a million 1st doses a day. There are 70 million "delivered" doses in the distribution pipeline and we will be hard-pressed to use them even if we stopped new shipments tomorrow.

My local news has been talking for weeks about how great the recent pandemic progress is and how our infection rates are "plunging". Sure; the infection rate's dropped by a little more than half over the past three weeks. It's still about triple what it was in the late summer lull. Perhaps by the time my vaccine is fully engaged the numbers will be low enough for me to feel comfortable in a restaurant.

 

[pinball1970]

The J&J pause really threw a monkey-wrench into all of this, and it is impossible to tell how the pause affected the peak vaccination rate beyond simply establishing the date of the peak. The US's peak vaccination rate over a week was 3.22 million/day, in the week ending April 13, the day before the pause. At that time, the J&J vaccine accounted for 460,000 per day.

We're now running out of people to vaccinate, but it is tough to tell how much the J&J pause affected the timing of it. The pause took about 3 days to become effective, but even at that, the rate of vaccinations has dropped smoothly since then, to about 2 million/day as of 5/6. President Biden's directive was for "everyone else" to be made eligible by April 19. Assuming a backlog of "everyone else's" of about a week, one might have expected the rate to peak around April 26, about two weeks later than it actually did.

Even after being reinstated, J&J vaccinations are only back up to about 80,000 /day (though still slowly rising), so the pause totally destroyed the J&J vaccination effort. And reinstating it hasn't turned the total vaccinations/day needle back positive. Using myself as an example of the impact on the rates/timing, the pause caused me to re-schedule and change from J&J to Pfizer, delaying my first dose by 5 days and full vaccination by 3.5 weeks.

Overall, first doses peaked at 1.66 M/day on April 1st and were down to about 700,000 a week ago. Second doses peaked at 1.46 M/day on April 22 and are down to 1.25 M/day. 118M fully vaccinated is 45% of those aged 16+. That's not good enough. I don't expect the rates to continue their rapid decay, as up until a few weeks ago people have been pushing to be vaccinated. Even two days ago I drove 30 miles for my second dose and waited in line an hour for it. I think we'll soon settle into a somewhat steady rate of people being pulled to be vaccinated. But it might only be half a million 1st doses a day. There are 70 million "delivered" doses in the distribution pipeline and we will be hard-pressed to use them even if we stopped new shipments tomorrow.

My local news has been talking for weeks about how great the recent pandemic progress is and how our infection rates are "plunging". Sure; the infection rate's dropped by a little more than half over the past three weeks. It's still about triple what it was in the late summer lull. Perhaps by the time my vaccine is fully engaged the numbers will be low enough for me to feel comfortable in a restaurant.

I do not think the UK halted at any point like Europe over the AZ/clotting issue but our numbers peaked at around 800,000 mid March then dropped right off

We are at around 130,000 per day

It is not as if we had a lot more older people at the beginning and now we are running out of younger people.

The government is now asking 30s age group

Also I have heard of a few anecdotal stories of much younger people being offered the vaccine (my son and his partner both 26)
Also people being offered in the street!
There has been some vaccine hesitancy so this is going to lead to wastages I presume?
Shelf life of the vaccine so getting younger and younger people to fill those gaps?

 

[PeroK]

I do not think the UK halted at any point like Europe over the AZ/clotting issue but our numbers peaked at around 800,000 mid March then dropped right off

We are at around 130,000 per day
View attachment 282974

It is not as if we had a lot more older people at the beginning and now we are running out of younger people.

The government is now asking 30s age group
View attachment 282975
Also I have heard of a few anecdotal stories of much younger people being offered the vaccine (my son and his partner both 26)
Also people being offered in the street!
There has been some vaccine hesitancy so this is going to lead to wastages I presume?
Shelf life of the vaccine so getting younger and younger people to fill those gaps?

We've only slowed on the first round because most of the vaccinations recently (since the beginning of April) have been second doses. We're still doing about 3.5 million a week, but that's over 2.5 million second doses and less than a million first doses. This is, I imagine, near full capacity.

This will continue for about another four weeks and then we should transition back to the majority being first doses of the younger age groups. That will be the key time to reveal any hesitancy.

I got my second jab yesterday and it was very busy.

 

[pinball1970]

We've only slowed on the first round because most of the vaccinations recently (since the beginning of April) have been second doses. We're still doing about 3.5 million a week, but that's over 2.5 million second doses and less than a million first doses. This is, I imagine, near full capacity.

This will continue for about another four weeks and then we should transition back to the majority being first doses of the younger age groups. That will be the key time to reveal any hesitancy.

I got my second jab yesterday and it was very busy.

I did not even take the second jab numbers into account.
That makes sense now.

A mention in the metro this morning that half of new cases in London are of the Indian variant and quick search I found this

https://www.newscientist.com/articl...ant-in-the-uk-seems-to-be-more-transmissible/

Take away is that is not more dangerous in terms of severe disease and “it doesn’t have the E484Q mutation which, like the E484K mutation, may be linked to helping it evade antibodies.”

Also this

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...iant-may-be-spreading-faster-than-kent-strain

“Despite concerns over the B.1.617.2 variant, the React study findings are encouraging. Across England, prevalence of the virus has fallen to about 1 in 1,000 people, a level not seen since August last year; however, case rates are twice as high in participants of an Asian heritage compared with white people.”

 

[PeroK]

This Indian variant is a worry. The numbers are small, but if it really can evade the vaccine then we're in trouble.

 

[nsaspook]

Great News!

https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-masks-cdc-guidelines-9d10c8b5f80a4ac720fa1df2a4fb93e5

WASHINGTON (AP) — In a striking move to send the country back toward pre-pandemic life, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Thursday will ease indoor mask-wearing guidance for fully vaccinated people, allowing them to safely stop wearing masks inside in most places, according to a person briefed on the announcement.

The new guidance will still call for wearing masks in crowded indoor settings like buses, planes, hospitals, prisons and homeless shelters, but could ease restrictions for reopening workplaces, schools, and other venues — even removing the need for masks or social distancing for those who are fully vaccinated.

The CDC will also no longer recommend that fully vaccinated people wear masks outdoors in crowds. The announcement comes as the CDC and the Biden administration have faced pressure to ease restrictions on fully vaccinated people — people who are two weeks past their last required COVID-19 vaccine dose — in part to highlight the benefits of getting the shot.

 

[russ_watters]

Great News!

https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-masks-cdc-guidelines-9d10c8b5f80a4ac720fa1df2a4fb93e5

The outdoor part makes a lot of sense to me (or I should say the outdoor mandates didn't make much sense), but I have concerns about the indoor part; how do you prove vaccination status? Imo, businesses/indoor public places should still require masks.

 

[nsaspook]

The outdoor part makes a lot of sense to me (or I should say the outdoor mandates didn't make much sense), but I have concerns about the indoor part; how do you prove vaccination status? Imo, businesses/indoor public places should still require masks.

It's a government mandate being removed, not a order to not wear a mask. So like what happened in Texas with private entities, they could still require masks.
No shirt, no shoes, no vaccine

I don't think proof of VAX will be required beyond a narrow range of activities.

 

[nsaspook]

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/fully-vaccinated-guidance.html

Interim Public Health Recommendations for Fully Vaccinated People​

• Update that fully vaccinated people no longer need to wear a mask or physically distance in any setting, except where required by federal, state, local, tribal, or territorial laws, rules, and regulations, including local business and workplace guidance
• Update that fully vaccinated people can refrain from testing following a known exposure unless they are residents or employees of a correctional or detention facility or a homeless shelter

 

[Vanadium 50]

or I should say the outdoor mandates didn't make much sense

I agree. If I am on one side of a screen door, I am perfectly fine. On the other side, I'M GONNA DIE! I'M GONNA DIE!

Is the virus the size of a bumblebee?

 

[mfb]

but I have concerns about the indoor part; how do you prove vaccination status?

In an office setting you can ask the employees individually. In a supermarket that's impractical of course.

 

[nsaspook]

States are following the CDC recommendations. https://www.king5.com/article/news/...ople/281-5b9dd348-fae8-4d76-b85c-1a1f7f556b8b

Washington state lifting mask mandate for fully vaccinated people
People who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 will no longer need to wear a mask in most indoor and outdoor settings, Gov. Jay Inslee said Thursday.

https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavi...ns-in-most-public-settings-governor-says.html

Mask requirement lifted for fully vaccinated Oregonians in most ‘public settings,’ governor says

Fully vaccinated Oregonians can ditch their face masks in most public settings, Gov. Kate Brown announced Thursday, aligning the state with new federal guidance on the ubiquitous mainstays of pandemic life.

 

[Mayhem]

In an office setting you can ask the employees individually. In a supermarket that's impractical of course.

I love how COVID-19 has made my medical records public business lol.

 

[mfb]

No one said anything about public.
"You might have to show that you are vaccinated in order to do X" is nothing new either, for e.g. measles this has existed for far longer.

 

[Mayhem]

No one said anything about public.
"You might have to show that you are vaccinated in order to do X" is nothing new either, for e.g. measles this has existed for far longer.

Heard of it for travel, but never for day-to-day activities like going to work or shopping. Might be an American thing.

 

[pinball1970]

Heard of it for travel, but never for day-to-day activities like going to work or shopping. Might be an American thing.

The UK dropped plans

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...atory-covid-passports-in-pubs-and-restaurants

I personally would feel a lot easier about venues if I knew everyone I was coming into contact with inside was vaccinated.

 

[PeroK]

Heard of it for travel, but never for day-to-day activities like going to work or shopping.

This is because modern medicine has largely eradicated the most dangerous infectious diseases. One of the risks in the modern world is that many people no longer have the experience or knowledge of infectious diseases that can kill. This leads to everything from complacency of the dangers to outright denial that such diseases have been controlled by mass vaccination programs.

I guess the logic is that you've lived to the age of X years without encountering a disease such as COVID-19 and now that you are encountering it, you can't understand why it should change everyday life in any way?

 

[Rive]

Fully vaccinated Oregonians can ditch their face masks in most public settings...

I'm not fully convinced about this kind of thing. In short, we (general 'we') are selectively boosting the R value for any immunity-bypassing variant.
I do understand that restraint is inconvenient and already too long but as long as there is such 'healthy' sized gene pool manufacturing variants for the virus this may become a very dangerous practice.

 

[russ_watters]

Heard of it for travel, but never for day-to-day activities like going to work or shopping. Might be an American thing.

Basic childhood vaccinations are mandatory, but there are exemptions (too many, imo). Proof of vaccination may be required by schools. This varies by state(schools are state regulated). Workplaces with high risk such have healthcare and nursing homes may require employees to be vaccinated.

General businesses requiring it of employees and customers ("day-to-day") would be unusual, but we'll have to wait and see. I suspect it won't happen. Per discussion above, in the absence of that, businesses may require everyone to keep wearing masks.

 

[russ_watters]

This is because modern medicine has largely eradicated the most dangerous infectious diseases. One of the risks in the modern world is that many people no longer have the experience or knowledge of infectious diseases that can kill. This leads to everything from complacency of the dangers to outright denial that such diseases have been controlled by mass vaccination programs.

There is a third, non-crazy issue/option: for eradicated diseases the vaccine carries more risk than the disease. People are bad at weighing such risks and don't trust governments who tend to be more interested in collective risks than individual ones...and optics. Optics are often more important to governments (and businesses) than logic.