COVID COVID-19 Coronavirus Containment Efforts

[PeroK]

They will eventually be lifted. Some surrounding cities are toning down the level of lockdown already.

You're saying that we (globally) could eliminate this virus altogether? After 3-4 months of global lockdowns, the virus would be wiped out completely and we could return globally to some sort of normality?

 

[wukunlin]

You're saying that we (globally) could eliminate this virus altogether? After 3-4 months of global lockdowns, the virus would be wiped out completely and we could return globally to some sort of normality?

That appears to be the only way until we got a drug or vaccine for it...

 

[kyphysics]

That appears to be the only way until we got a drug or vaccine for it...

I think there is also the hope that summer weather (hot and humid) will kill off the virus to a large degree. I know experts debate whether weather affects the virus or not, but that is at least a hope.

 

[kyphysics]

@WWGD :

As I said, I managed to find the mother of the family on facebook and I contacted her. And I just got a reply from her:

I told her that washing hands with soap and warm water is a good alternative if and when hand sanitizers are not available. I also gave her the link to the WHO Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) advice for the public. And then I wished them good health and good luck.

Brought a smile to my face!

That's awesome man! Didn't realize you did that, so big thumbs up dude!

I'm sure your actions meant a lot to the mother. Sometimes just having a friendly person say a kind word or offer help in times of distress can do a whole lot to calm people and make them smile.

Thanks for what you did!

 

[DennisN]

@kyphysics , @Jarvis323
By the way, how are you both feeling at the moment?

I feel pretty good. I have been sleeping a lot, I was probably a bit tired due to the last couple of days. I have no unusual symptoms at the moment at all except from a very mild cold (only a bit of a stuffed nose, no fever, no cough).

 

[vxiaoyu18]

This requires the cooperation of every country and people, working together to actively deal with the virus, open the data, and when to end the game using real data as the criterion. The situation is different in every country, and the measures taken vary, but there should be a consensus among people on how to effectively stop the infection, for themselves, for their families, for all their friends and for the future of mankind.

 

[wukunlin]

I think there is also the hope that summer weather (hot and humid) will kill off the virus to a large degree. I know experts debate whether weather affects the virus or not, but that is at least a hope.

I read that the virus can withstand up to 54c of heat. We will need a heatwave.

 

[Rive]

We will need a heatwave.

As things are now, we would need it at the same time on both hemisphere...

 

[DennisN]

I read that the virus can withstand up to 54c of heat.

Do you have a source for this information?

 

[russ_watters]

As was pointed out in a press conference today, the steps that many people think would be 'more reasonable' are based on reports/results from several days to a week ago. What people don't realize is that the situation has changed, for the worse, since then. That is why recommendations/restrictions seem too extreme, they are addressing the current situation, not the previous one.

I wasn't suggesting anything about the proactive(forward looking) nature of the containment efforts. If anything, I think they haven't been proactive enough, particularly in planning for implementation. If infectious disease experts expected a month ago that it would spread everywhere, it could have been announced/discussed and people could have planned instead of finding out what was going to happen with hour or minutes notice.

But that doesn't change the fact that -as far as I can tell - weighing the economic cost hasn't been part of the conversation at all.

People are still talking about the lifetime of economic damage done to millennials by the great recession. I haven't heard anyone say the same for the next generation.

If one truly believes this disease would kill tens of millions of people, then it is probably worth "containment at all costs", but only probably, and it should be said: "sorry guys, we know we are likely dooming you to a lifetime of economic underachievement/hardship, but we believe it is worth it."

 

[DennisN]

But that doesn't change the fact that -as far as I can tell - weighing the economic cost hasn't been part of the conversation at all.

I assume you are talking about the long-term economic cost, or? If so, I agree and add that it may be a difficult conversation due to uncertainties and the immediate worry about the virus spread, health capabilities and short-term economic costs.

If I remember correctly both the government and opposition have been talking about some sort of economic stimulus package in the US (even announced, maybe?), or?

This is the case here in Sweden, i.e. economic measures due to the economic impact of the virus are being talked about, and some measures are already put in place.

EDIT: As an example of discussion here in Sweden, there are news reports that the Swedish part of SAS (Scandinavian Airlines) is having serious problems and some experts say it could become bankrupt in a few weeks. If I remember correctly, 90% of the Swedish SAS workforce was temporarily laid off a couple of days ago.

EDIT 2: Two sources:

• http://www.dn.se/ekonomi/sas-haller-presskonferens-om-konsekvenserna-av-nya-coronaviruset/ (only in Swedish)
• http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-15/sas-temporarily-lays-off-90-of-workforce-affecting-10-000-jobs

90% of SAS has been laid off, which is 10'000 people.

 

[anorlunda]

It's time to think seriously about the economic repercussions of the current containments efforts.

That's true, but I don't think we will allow economics to dominate our short term decisions.

1. Things are happening too quickly for introspective thoughtful decision making.
2. There is a cultural bias against "putting a price on a human life." It is political suicide to suggest saving money by letting people die.
3. There are no economic models that credibly include pandemic.

Perhaps when even the decision makers are quarantined, they will have the time to think things through. (Says me tongue-in-cheek:-)

But if you really want to think out-of-the-box: What effect will a global shutdown have on carbon emissions?

 

[wukunlin]

Do you have a source for this information?

uh... myth busted

 

[DennisN]

Wow, I had not seen that info on the WHO page. Thanks for posting, @wukunlin !

 

[DennisN]

And some brief humor to lighten things up for a brief minute :

Toilet roll rugby

 

[PeroK]

And some brief humor to lighten things up for a brief minute :

Toilet roll rugby

That's not rugby. That's Australian Rules ("toilet rolls") Football.

 

[chirhone]

I'm in guangzhou, China. On the second day after academician li lanjuan proposed to the state on January 22 that "wuhan must be closed down", China resolutely took measures to close down the city, which prevented the outbreak of the epidemic in the first place. Thanks to the right decision, the outbreak in our country is now pretty clear and almost under control. So the best way to deal with this outbreak is for everyone to stay at home and be quarantined and work together to stop the source of infection and get this virus over with. Our country and people are very friendly and will try our best to help people around the world fight the virus during this time of crisis. Good luck to all of you.

Please scrutinize if the following procedure is correct. In our complete lockdown we have this guideline:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/new...enhanced-community-quarantine-in-luzon/story/

"
7. Only 1 (one) person per household is allowed to go outside their homes to buy basic necessities. Use of private vehicles for this purpose shall be allowed; "

What happens is that people drive to friends house or go elsewhere besides buying basic necessities (hence there are still many cars in the street). In Wuhan. You can still drive around the city allegedly to buy food? Or are even private cars prohibited? Then how do you buy basic necessities? You walk in streets?

 

[russ_watters]

I assume you are talking about the long-term economic cost, or? If so, I agree and add that it may be a difficult conversation due to uncertainties and the immediate worry about the virus spread, health capabilities and short-term economic costs.

If I remember correctly both the government and opposition have been talking about some sort of economic stimulus package in the US (even announced, maybe?), or?

I'm interested in both short term and long term, and both costs and spending. A recession is a cost whereas a stimulus package is spending to try to avoid that cost.

Such as it has been, essentially all of the actions by the US government have been reactive. Even policies that will have long term impact are still being implemented only after the impacts are starting to be seen.

But again, that's not the issue I raised in what you quoted. The issue I raised is that the containment actions are being taken without regard to cost.

In economic analysis of any action, the base case, which is often ignored, is "do nothing".

I think it is also worth pointing out that the economic costs and health benefits of containment are largely borne by different people.

 

[bhobba]

The lockdown affects the new infections only, not the newly discovered ill or new deaths. The number of the newly discovered ill is expected to stop growing only after ~ two weeks.

You hit it in one. In Australia we are not in complete lockdown yet - but likely eventually will be

Thanks
Bill

 

[DennisN]

But again, that's not the issue I raised in what you quoted. The issue I raised is that the containment actions are being taken without regard to cost.

Thanks, I understand now.

 

[anorlunda]

By what mechanism could this virus stop spreading and die out? A reduction in new cases each day means that the curve was flattened. Fewer new cases per day, does not necessarily mean fewer cases in the indefinite future.

 

[nsaspook]

As expected, there is pushback from the young.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-generational-war-is-brewing-over-coronavirus-11584437401

On a recent night in the semiautonomous city, Peel Street, a thoroughfare lined with bars and popular with expats, thronged with hundreds of maskless drinkers. A band played in the lower half of the street, where people stood shoulder to shoulder.

“I stayed at home for two months. I’m not staying any more,” said Ryan, 26, who was walking with his friends down the main strip of nearby Lan Kwai Fong, a series of streets filled with bars and clubs. “Life goes on.”

“We worry,” said Nicole, 25. “But either you worry yourself to death or you drink yourself to death.”

 

[bhobba]

By what mechanism could this virus stop spreading and die out? A reduction in new cases each day means that the curve was flattened. Fewer new cases per day, does not necessarily mean fewer cases in the indefinite future.

The better the lockdown the fewer the cases. What will stop it eventually is the vaccine when it is available which is why its being fast-tracked.

Thanks
Bil

 

[wukunlin]

Please scrutinize if the following procedure is correct. In our complete lockdown we have this guideline:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/new...enhanced-community-quarantine-in-luzon/story/

"
7. Only 1 (one) person per household is allowed to go outside their homes to buy basic necessities. Use of private vehicles for this purpose shall be allowed; "

What happens is that people drive to friends house or go elsewhere besides buying basic necessities (hence there are still many cars in the street). In Wuhan. You can still drive around the city allegedly to buy food? Or are even private cars prohibited? Then how do you buy basic necessities? You walk in streets?

For Wuhan, there are a lot of check points limiting where people can or cannot drive to. There are also shuttles arranged for people who wants to buy food

 

[chirhone]

For Wuhan, there are a lot of check points limiting where people can or cannot drive to. There are also shuttles arranged for people who wants to buy food

So this kind of lineups also occurred in Wuhan? Next week I'll be one of the people who will line up (what if the person behind me with virus sneeze?)

 

[wukunlin]

So this kind of lineups also occurred in Wuhan? Next week I'll be one of the people who will line up (what if the person behind me with virus sneeze?)

View attachment 258846

I think only 1 person per household is allowed to go out shopping every 2 days. If the density of supermarkets are anything like Shenzhen, there shouldn't be a line anywhere that long for any particular supermarket. Face masks well help if someone sneezes. Stay at least 1m away from anyone, especially when you are in a line. Most important, wash your hands thoroughly when you get home.

 

[sqljunkey]

I don't see how this is a deadly disease. Has the deathrate in wuhan increased disproportionately? Wuhan has a pop of 11 million people and so far only ppl who died who had the virus were old ppl.

For a serious deadly virus it seems to have a low deathrate compared to the average daily global deathrate.

 

[mfb]

by the way it is covering 150 countries ?

Depends on what exactly you consider a country. This map recognizes 155 "countries/regions", not all of them are independent countries.

IIRC, in Wuhan (also a big, modern metro), pretty much EVERYONE was locked in, except for government workers and essential workers (hospitals, obviously). They delivered food and essentials to people.

Could that work for NYC? Could everyone be forced to stay in - enforced by police. And, then, you have a group of volunteers and government workers deliver things to people (non-essential workers) for a month or two?

It'd be miserable, but a way to prevent a health system overcrowding disaster if COVID19 ramped up. High crime neighborhoods would also need extra policing. This sort of idle time, lockdown, and lack of money from commission of crime could cause criminals to "act up."

China could pool resources from all over the country in Hubei because it was a single large outbreak. If the US tries the same approach it might work well in New York, but what happens in the other states in that time?

Agreed. Right now it does not seem we are weighing the risks, but only thinking "stop Coronavirus at all costs". The costs should be considered.

Various US agencies put the cost of a human life at several millions.
Without a slowdown in the spread and overwhelmed hospitals the US will probably look at millions of deaths, or tens of trillions of USD by that metric. Scale by a factor 20 for global numbers. That's not including the economic damage and other induced deaths (from insufficient healthcare for other patients, a potential lack of access to food, transportation or whatever) such a dramatic disruption of life everywhere will cause, even though the time might be shorter. You can now argue that most deaths will be older people and that we ... yeah, go ahead and find a politician who will do that.
Doing nothing is so cost-prohibitive that all the approaches to fight it are cheap in comparison.

Italy is under comlete lockdown but it records 350+ deaths in single day. How is virus transmitted during complete lockdown? Our groceries and essentials remain open (all else are close) and there are long lineups with customers close to one another. Is this the mode of transmission in Italy?

It takes a while from infection to death. ~5 days of incubation period, and maybe 1-2 weeks from first symptoms to death, in some cases even longer. Italy's nationwide lockdown is just a week old. The lockdown in Lodi started 3.5 weeks ago, we might see results there but it just affected 50,000 people. Lombardy, the region that has half the cases of all Italy, might have stabilized its daily new cases (1500, 1400, 1100, 1900, 1600, 1400 in the last days). Could also come from a lack of available tests, of course.

By what mechanism could this virus stop spreading and die out? A reduction in new cases each day means that the curve was flattened. Fewer new cases per day, does not necessarily mean fewer cases in the indefinite future.

China-style measures seem to work if they are kept up long enough, but the world won't apply these everywhere. The approaches of South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan work, but it's too late for them in many countries. Wait until a significant fraction of the population got it will work, but will come with a high cost. A vaccine should work but won't be available until later.

 

[chirhone]

I think only 1 person per household is allowed to go out shopping every 2 days. If the density of supermarkets are anything like Shenzhen, there shouldn't be a line anywhere that long for any particular supermarket. Face masks well help if someone sneezes. Stay at least 1m away from anyone, especially when you are in a line. Most important, wash your hands thoroughly when you get home.

And if we have to follow complete lockdown like in Wuhan. We still have to contend with 80,000 infections and 3000 deaths?

 

[PeroK]

By what mechanism could this virus stop spreading and die out? A reduction in new cases each day means that the curve was flattened. Fewer new cases per day, does not necessarily mean fewer cases in the indefinite future.

As I understand the Chinese position it is that once a region is cleared there are literally no active cases of the virus remaining. And, this could be achieved globally. The virus could be completely eliminated.

However, the news reports in the UK suggest that there is no way out of a national lockdown. As soon as we come out again, the virus may flare up again.

Also, it seems, the longer a national shutdown lasts, the harder it would be to sustain the emergency health measures. Sooner or later vital supplies and government money must run out - if people generally are not at work.

If it takes 18 months, say, to find a vaccine, I find it hard to believe that western society could survive that long in lockdown. It's a difficult question whether that represents something worse than a national pandemic.