COVID COVID-19 Coronavirus Containment Efforts

[atyy]

Would everyone wearing face masks help us slow the pandemic?
By Kelly Servick
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/would-everyone-wearing-face-masks-help-us-slow-pandemic

 

[atyy]

COVID-19 and the Risk to Health Care Workers: A Case Report
Kangqi Ng, MBBS; Beng Hoong Poon, MBBS, MPH, MMed (Family Med); Troy Hai Kiat Puar, MBBS; Jessica Li Shan Quah, MBBS; Wann Jia Loh, MBBS; Yu Jun Wong, MD; Thean Yen Tan, MBBCh; Jagadesan Raghuram, MB BCh BAO
https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/2763329/covid-19-risk-health-care-workers-case-report

"Objective: To describe the clinical outcome of health care workers who took care of a patient with severe pneumonia before the diagnosis of COVID-19 was known."

"In the situation we describe, 85% of health care workers were exposed during an aerosol-generating procedure exposed while wearing a surgical mask, and the remainder were wearing N95 masks. That none of the health care workers in this situation acquired infection suggests that surgical masks, hand hygiene, and other standard procedures protected them from being infected. Our observation is consistent with previous studies that have been unable to show that N95 masks were superior to surgical masks for preventing influenza infection in health care workers"

 

[atyy]

I have a question, if our body builds up an immunity to a virus and then we get exposed to it again later would there still be some symptoms?

Generally, it is thought that you will not get symptoms the second time round when you have immunity (almost by definition). However, in many cases immunity does wear off after some time. Also, if you get exposed to a variant of the virus, the immunity you have may not apply to a different variant of the virus.

An interesting example is chicken pox, which is caused by a virus. Generally, after getting chicken pox once, you cannot get it again, as you have immunity. However, the virus can lie dormant in your nerves, and cause shingles later on in life. https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/features/shingles-chickenpox#1

 

[DennisN]

Coronavirus Kent: Shopper spotted wearing Stormtrooper mask in Sittingbourne Asda during Covid-19 outbreak
https://www.kentonline.co.uk/sittin...ted-wearing-stormtrooper-mask-in-asda-224071/

It should work against droplets, which are thought to be the main mode of Covid-19 transmission. It's also washable and re-useable.

Imagine all people around the world going outside wearing Stormtrooper masks. Then the Empire will really be striking back!

 

[256bits]

Simulations of an epidemic
This video I found interesting on effects of what travel, social distancing, central market, isolation can do to the spread of a disease.
Courtesy of 3Blue1Brown

 

[PeroK]

A news report broadcast briefly explained that they are more physically fit and so recover better from the infection. This also meant/means, fewer die.

That seems to me a highly implausible answer.

 

[mattt]

I notice there is still a major discrepancy in the death rate for the USA and Germany, as compared with other western countries that are suffering from a large number of cases. Italy and Spain are already very bad and I can't see any hope for the UK not to suffer to the same extent. It's only a matter of time.

What's the prognosis for the USA and Germany? Is it expected that the death rate can be kept relatively low? How are the health services coping?

A current hypothesis:

 

[mfb]

I did some google research and found out these patent applications.

That means even less. Not even a granted patent means anything.
You can get a patent to cure all types of cancer with a mixture of 30% rice and 70% carrots. Seriously. Just apply in the US and it will fulfill all three required criteria:
- it is new
- it claims to do something
- it is not trivial
Note the absence of a point where you would have to show that it actually works. Some more discussion here
Be careful with sources here, please, especially with medical claims.

------

Not so good news from other places:

Coronavirus cluster emerges at another South Korean church, as others press ahead with Sunday services
Was the big outbreak caused by the other church not bad enough? Or the new cluster started by this church? Is there really a need to start yet another outbreak by yet another church?Tokyo's official numbers rise quickly after Olympics are officially postponed

[Prime Minister Abe] said a state of emergency is not needed just yet, but that Japan could at any time face a situation as bad as in the United States or Europe.

That's the same mistake that lead to the situation in Europe and the US. Do nothing and wait for a miracle to happen. There won't be a miracle. Waiting just spreads the disease more.

 

[Astronuc]

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-29/coronavirus-choir-outbreak
LA Times, March 29, 2020 - In Skagit County, Washington, 60 people went to choir practice on March 10. Members were offered hand sanitizer at the door, and people refrained from handshakes and hugs (but not known if this was 100%). The practice lasted 2.5 hours.

First illnesses appear three days later on March 13. Three of four of two couples began to show symptoms of infection; the fourth first felt ill two days later. In the following days, more choir members became ill, as did some of their contacts.

Three weeks later, 45 choir members have tested positive for COVID-19 or are ill with symptoms (implies some not tested yet?), three are hospitalized and two are dead. According to the LA Times, eight people present at the choir practice maintain that no one was coughing or sneezing, which would imply 'respiratory droplets'. However, it appears that normal singing, or perhaps normal chorale singing with 'voice projection' is enough to release the virus.

This event indicates that the virus is highly transmissible through the air, and it does not require an infected person to be sneezing or coughing.

Edit - this story had me thinking about the attorney in New Rochelle, NY, who commuted from New Rochelle to New York City where he passed through Grand Central Station on the way to his office near GCS. I've done that many times myself for meetings in NY City, and people walk briskly from the train through the station and out to parts of the city, and some head to the subways for further parts. Breathing heavily would push out the virus to those one is passing, who are also rushing and breathing deeply. Many people who are infected apparently don't know they are. This also points to the importance of wearing a mask (preferably N95) in public to avoid expressing the virus and to mitigate inhaling the virus.

Edit/update - On March 26, Mike Baker (NY Times) reported about the Skagit Valley Chorale. Ruth Backlund, a co-president at the Skagit Valley Chorale, said “Nobody was sick. Nobody touched anybody. Nobody shook hands. Nobody hugged everybody like you might do in a group. There was none of that.”
The story would seem to confirm airborne transmission without coughing or sneezing, and whoever brought the infection along did not realize they were infected.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/c...0-people-show-up-for-practice-now-45-are-sick

 

[DennisN]

Bad and good news from Spain:

Spain has now passed China in number of cases, and is now third on the list of countries with most infections ( which is 1. USA, 2. Italy, 3. Spain, 4. China).

I checked the "daily increase" tab for Spain on the COVID-19 dashboard and it seems the number of daily increases are going down; the number has steadily gone down from 9'600 to 6'900 (ca) during the last five days.

But I should add that I am not aware of the testing policies in Spain. One big, or more correctly, giant difficulty with all numbers of cases is of course that they are so dependent on the level of testing that is done in each country (or each region etc). If let's say, the testing for some reason is decreased it would be natural to see a decrease in the number of confirmed cases, which may not reflect the number of actual cases.

Sources:

• Spanish Coronavirus cases overtake China (Reuters, March 30, 2020)
• COVID-19 dasboard by CSSE

Good news from Europe, though most likely temporary:

• Coronavirus lockdowns give Europe's cities cleaner air (Reuters, March 30, 2020)

 

[russ_watters]

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-29/coronavirus-choir-outbreak
LA Times, March 29, 2020 - In Skagit County, Washington, 60 people went to choir practice on March 10. Members were offered hand sanitizer at the door, and people refrained from handshakes and hugs (but not known if this was 100%). The practice lasted 2.5 hours.

First illnesses appear three days later on March 13...

Three weeks later, 45 chioir members have tested positive for COVID-19 or are ill with symptoms (implies some not tested yet?), three are hospitalized and two are dead.

Wow. This has me nervous about even going to the grocery store!

 

[bhobba]

Wow. This has me nervous about even going to the grocery store!

I try to avoid it, but there is only so much you can do eg I buy subway salads in lots of 3 or 4 so you only go every few days - not every day. It can be reduced, but I see no way it can be eliminated.

Thanks
Bill

 

[phinds]

Wow. This has me nervous about even going to the grocery store!

Some stores have home delivery (in my area anyway) and some have "curbside pickup" where you don't have to go into the store. You should check in your area.

 

[PeroK]

Wow. This has me nervous about even going to the grocery store!

I suggest you can go to the store, but don't get involved in any supermarket singalongs! Seriously, going to the store must be a low risk activity with the measures in place and the few people you go anywhere near. Compared with say a typical day at work before lockdown, where you might be in close contact with hundreds of people per day.

The difference between lockdown and total isolation must be so small that it's a diminishing return to isolate yourself any further. Unless, of course, you think you've actually got the virus.

To extract ourselves from this we are all going to have to balance risk with rationality. We can't even stay in lockdown indefinitely, let alone total isolation.

 

[peanut]

What are the reasons why someone infected with Covid-19 produces a false-negative result?

 

[mfb]

Antibody tests are arriving:
Germany could issue thousands of people Coronavirus 'immunity certificates' so they can leave the lockdown early

researchers at the Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research in Braunschweig want to send out hundreds of thousands of antibody tests over the coming weeks that could allow people to break free of the lockdowns, Der Spiegel reported on Friday.
If the project is approved, the researchers will test 100,000 people at a time starting in early April, Der Spiegel said.

Antibodies -> good to go
It will also give a better estimate how many people had contact with the virus so far.

Germany's new case count had an odd pattern in the past, that made it hard to interpret, but it might have stabilized, too.

 

[collinsmark]

What are the reasons why someone infected with Covid-19 produces a false-negative result?

One reason, I'm lead to believe, is that the method of gathering the sample is a tad invasive and uncomfortable. You need to shove a swab pretty far up your nose, up into your sinus cavity. If you don't get it up there just right, it might produce a false negative.

Another possibility is testing too early, before incubation has taken effect.

There are probably some other reasons.

[Btw, this refers the antigen test, not the antibody test.]

 

[Astronuc]

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020...navirus-in-minutes-has-won-approval-in-the-us

Abbott Laboratories said on Friday it won U.S. marketing approval for a diagnostic test for the Coronavirus that can deliver results to patients within minutes and be used in physicians offices and urgent care clinics, as well as hospitals.

 

[OmCheeto]

That seems to me a highly implausible answer.

Someone posted a New York Times article earlier that asked your original question.

Germany Has Relatively Few Deaths From Coronavirus. Why?​

March 28, 2020​

I liked the answers I saw.
ie, they seemed very plausible.

Both early testing and incubation of the virus among the young go part of the way in explaining why the country’s fatality rate is so comparatively low. “It’s how much and whom we test,” Martin Stürmer, a virologist who is the director of a lab that is running Coronavirus testing in Frankfurt, told me. In general, countries that test less and reserve it for those already very ill, like Italy, have higher fatality rates.​

In other words, Germany has a lower death rate because they've tested more people.

It’s quite possible that Germany is just behind the curve.​

This is, in my opinion, based on the following graph I plotted yesterday, is 100% accurate:

[source numbers are from github]

I've been trying, unsuccessfully, to mathematically hand model an epidemic to try and reconcile why the "case fatality rates" are so nonsensical. After seeing the following statement in the article, I've decided to give up.

On average, a severely ill Covid-19 patient dies 30 days after being infected.​

If the following graphs don't make sense, don't blame me, as I only plotted the numbers.

 

[PeroK]

Someone posted a New York Times article earlier that asked your original question.

Germany Has Relatively Few Deaths From Coronavirus. Why?​

March 28, 2020​

I liked the answers I saw.
ie, they seemed very plausible.

Both early testing and incubation of the virus among the young go part of the way in explaining why the country’s fatality rate is so comparatively low. “It’s how much and whom we test,” Martin Stürmer, a virologist who is the director of a lab that is running Coronavirus testing in Frankfurt, told me. In general, countries that test less and reserve it for those already very ill, like Italy, have higher fatality rates.​

In other words, Germany has a lower death rate because they've tested more people.

The numbers are quite stark now, if we believe them: 11,591 deaths in Italy against 560 in Germany. That said, Spain, France, the UK and Netherlands are all commensurate with Italy (if we believe the total case numbers by country).

The USA, which has relatively few deaths, may be behind the curve as their case numbers have exploded in the last week or so.

 

[kyphysics]

Some stores have home delivery (in my area anyway) and some have "curbside pickup" where you don't have to go into the store. You should check in your area.

Although, you'd still have to trust the person packing your order, no? I.e., are they COVID-19 positive? Did they wash/sanitize their hands?

 

[jbriggs444]

Although, you'd still have to trust the person packing your order, no? I.e., are they COVID-19 positive? Did they wash/sanitize their hands?

So you wash the perishables and put the non-perishables in the garage for three days to sanitize.

Then remove clothing in a designated area, wash hands and/or take a shower after unpacking. My sister works in a bio lab and clued me to some things.

 

[Astronuc]

More on the lack of containment and control - or how to spread a virus:
March 23 - https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/23/us/coronavirus-westport-connecticut-party-zero.html

About 50 guests gathered on March 5 (Thursday) at a home in the stately suburb of Westport, Conn., to toast the hostess on her 40th birthday and greet old friends, including one visiting from South Africa. They shared reminiscences, a lavish buffet and, unknown to anyone, the coronavirus.

Someone brought the virus to the party, maybe one of those who became ill, or maybe one who hasn't shown symptoms.

After the party, the partygoers scattered.

The partygoers — more than half of whom are now infected — left that evening for Johannesburg, New York City and other parts of Connecticut and the United States, all seeding infections on the way.

Westport, a town of 28,000 on the Long Island Sound, did not have a single known case of the Coronavirus on the day of the party [March 5]. It had 85 on Monday (March 23), up more than 40-fold in 11 days.

the Westport soirée “may be an example of the kind of thing we call a super-spreading event,” said William Hanage, an associate professor of epidemiology at Harvard, especially since some of the partygoers later attended large social events in the New York metropolitan area.

“Some of the early cases in Northern Italy were associated with small towns, and people thought, ‘Oh, it’s just in the small towns.’ But then you suddenly find cases emerging from Milan Fashion Week and spreading internationally,” Dr. Hanage said. “Everywhere you think the virus is, it’s ahead of you."

The visitor from Johannesburg — a 43-year-old businessman, according to a report from South Africa — fell ill on his flight home, . . . That fact didn't get back to Westport, CT until March 11.

Meanwhile, on March 8, another guest became ill. At noon on March 8, town and county health officials convened a Coronavirus forum at the Westport Library. “It is not out in our community that we’re aware of yet,” said Mark A.R. Cooper, the director of the Westport Weston Health District. “Give it some thought, but again, your risk is low.” But the virus was already circulating in the community.

By March 23, Westport, with less than 1 percent of the state’s population, now then more than one-fifth of its Covid-19 infections, with 85 cases. Fairfield County, where Westport is, had 270 cases, 65 percent of the state’s total.

As of March 29, a total of 908 of those cases are in Fairfield County (59.5 percent of the 1,524 positive cases of the novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Connecticut).
https://dailyvoice.com/connecticut/...-town-rundown-of-cases-other-key-info/785760/

https://dailyvoice.com/connecticut/danbury/news/covid-19-danbury-now-has-218-cases/785829/

https://www.wfsb.com/news/the-latest-more-than-covid--cases-deaths/article_54edec52-67ad-11ea-8482-877cb5d00dcd.html
As of March 30, Monday, The number of confirmed cases stood at 2,571 on Monday afternoon (an increase of 1047 cases in one day), according to Gov. Ned Lamont. Thirty-six deaths were also reported.

 

[mathwonk]

I drove to the solid waste (garbage and recycle) disposal site today, but it was closed. Seems the county closed all such sites last week, even though the governor listed residential waste disposal as an "essential" function during the emergency. A little puzzling since at least recycle dropoff involves no human contact. One is apparently expected to arrange "curbside pickup" suddenly, but we live on a private road a ways off the county thoroughfare, (no curbs), and the one private pickup company for this rural area is overwhelmed with signup requests this week. Oops. How is this going in rural Georgia?

 

[lavinia]

 

[bhobba]

I suggest you can go to the store,

Yes it is low risk, but at least here in Aus they still ask you to try and minimise leaving the house, which I do.

Saw my doctor today for a Flu shot, and he was more worried about me seeing my physio since they are not wearing face masks (short supply - more needed by emergency doctors - even he is not wearing one). But then again my physio keeps his distance and just guides me through the exercises, but there are some moments he gets close, such as when he attaches weights. Still to be as safe as possible I am reducing my physio to once a fortnight instead of once a week. When the pandemic is under control/over will increase it again and can rebuild any muscle that atrophied. As my doctor said their are many things we can't or should not eliminate, but can reduce - in fact we are all required (and when I say require - I mean by law - they now have police enforcing it and handing out fines) to reduce leaving the house as much as possible. It's not total lockdown - yet - but may end up that way.

The bureaucracy is, how to put it nicely, still learning. Check this one out from a doctor who was with a croup of other doctors:
https://glenlo.wordpress.com/2020/03/29/we-were-allowed-to-leave/

Don't you love it how one doctor (she is what's called a PHO which simply means she works in a hospital), using the authority they have as a registered doctor, who has not seen or examined the other doctor, is satisfied, because of the way he behaves, he is a public health risk. I wonder if the doctor who the order was issued on, could return the favor, using his power as a registered doctor to do the same to the other doctor? To make matters worse, a number of other doctors this order was issued on were urgently needed respiratory specialists. The mind boggles.

BTW they were returning from the Antarctic - sure there is a lot of Covid down there. To be fair they did return via the Falklands, that while they have no cases yet, may have a possible case that could be confirmed in a week

Of course the obvious answer was for someone with a few brains to recognise these are all registered doctors, and will do the right thing, such as isolate for at least two weeks etc etc, and let them go to where their expertise will undoubtedly be needed. Like I said a few bureaucratic kinks need to be ironed out.

Thanks
Bill

 

[mfb]

Italy could approach the peak of active cases, making it the third country with a larger outbreak to do so (after China and South Korea):

 

[peanut]

Antibody tests are arriving:
Germany could issue thousands of people Coronavirus 'immunity certificates' so they can leave the lockdown earlyAntibodies -> good to go
It will also give a better estimate how many people had contact with the virus so far.

Germany's new case count had an odd pattern in the past, that made it hard to interpret, but it might have stabilized, too.

View attachment 259650

Can Covid-19 antibody test be used as a standalone test to definitively diagnose Covid-19? Are they being used for mass testing in other countries?

 

[utsavchopra]

For those who are interested and know something about drones can help humanity during COVID outbreak. As I see FlytNow giving away it's Pro version of the product for free to fight Coronavrius thing.

User can learn more about and register for free here https://flytnow.com/drones-for-coronavirus/

 

[utsavchopra]

Can Covid-19 antibody test be used as a standalone test to definitively diagnose Covid-19? Are they being used for mass testing in other countries?

There is some report of that in Japan. But not confirmed.