COVID COVID-19 Coronavirus Containment Efforts

[collinsmark]

My iPhone is able to determine when I'm within a few feet of a device as opposed to just being in the same room, which suggests that it should be good about deciding if another phone is close enough to qualify as a possible exposure.

If you* live in an apartment building, as many do, your phone might be within a few feet from your neighbor's phone all night long, even though the phones are not even in the same room. Bluetooth signals can penetrate walls.

*I don't mean "you" in particular, but "you" in general.

 

[russ_watters]

It could help contact tracing quite a bit if many people use the app:

It still has the problems discussed a while ago, of course: Can it give a reasonable set of contacts without spamming contact tracers with everyone who visited the same mall at the same time?

No, the app is completely anonymous and all information is locally stored or encrypted, so it doesn't have the ability to do 3rd party contact tracing. There is no database of people who have come into contact with each other generated by the app/phone company/google, for the local health department to access.

The primary way it would assist in contact tracing is indirect: by telling you that you have been exposed, you then voluntarily contact your local health department. But that information is soooooo limited because you/it doesn't know who you came in contact with.

 

[russ_watters]

Apparently, many health authorities didn't have the resources and expertise to build and maintain an app, so Apple and Google have developed a simpler system. With iOS 13.7 and later, as long as your local health authority supports it, all you have to do is enable the feature on the phone. I'm not sure how Google is implementing the system on Android.

Sorry, but what app are we talking about here? You said North Dakota has two apps. As far as I know, Google/Apple only created one platform (not an app; authorities create/subcontract the app themselves). It would shock me if they also created a true tracking app, because this was a huge controversy.

The platform was pushed to phones several months ago -- I'm on Android and I got it; I assume iPhone users got it at about the same time.

The phones only exchange tokens if they're in proximity to each other for 15 minutes or more, so just walking by a person who laters reports being infected isn't going to result in a notification.

Actually, my app says it will. The tokens are saved, so if one of those contacts later reports an infection, I'll get a notification that I was exposed. I just won't know who it was.

My iPhone is able to determine when I'm within a few feet of a device as opposed to just being in the same room, which suggests that it should be good about deciding if another phone is close enough to qualify as a possible exposure.

The device doesn't need to know where you are (and for the google/Apple platform I'm aware of it explicitly does not), it just needs to know if you are near another bluetooth enabled phone. Since the range is only 30' and (I think...) they measure signal strength, that is pretty straightforward.

[edit]
Here's a timeline for what I see for N. Dakota:
4/7/2020 - "Care-19" App launched
https://www.health.nd.gov/news/north-dakota-launches-care19-app-combat-covid-19
From the description, it must use GPS (though it doesn't say "GPS") and it has nothing to do with the Google/Apple bluetooth-based platform, since it was launched long before that platform.

5/20/2020 - Apple/Google COVID tracker API released

6/24/2020 - Reference to the "second app" that was under development at the time, that uses the Apple/Google API:
https://www.statnews.com/2020/06/24/digital-contact-tracing-north-dakota/

8/13/2020 - "Care 19 Alert" App released, using the google/apple api:
https://www.kxnet.com/news/state-ne...reduce-spread-of-covid-19-as-students-return/

Looking at the google app store, and the North Dakota website, it appears to me there is only one app and that's the second one -- it appears to me that the google/apple based app replaced the gps based one:
https://www.ndresponse.gov/covid-19-resources/care19

In any case, it does surprise me that any state developed an actual location tracking app and surprises me that it didn't get more press due to the privacy concerns.

 

[mfb]

The phones only exchange tokens if they're in proximity to each other for 15 minutes or more, so just walking by a person who laters reports being infected isn't going to result in a notification.

Well, then it's completely useless for many people, me included. Public transport is the only place where I could get such a notification from - if I'm longer close to other people elsewhere then I know these people or at least can make it easy for contact tracers to find them (and vice versa). With such an app my phone would have a handful of entries from July (couldn't avoid public transport) and nothing else useful since February.

 

[OmCheeto]

Sorry, could not resist:

View attachment 269795

That's actually quite interesting about Germany. Only 1 US state had a flatter slope in that time period.
The slope being deaths per day per million.
You can also manipulate that number to yield the fraction of deaths that are due to Covid.
In Germany, 1 in 340 deaths was due to Covid.
Only Vermont had a better ratio at 1 in 380.
The next best was Maine at 1 in 68.
The other end of the scale isn't quite so good. I actually have trouble believing the numbers are that bad.
2 out of 7 deaths in Mississippi for the last 2 months have been due to Covid.

If you split the US into NY, NJ, CT, MA and everybody else, you get a very different story

If it weren't for maths, I wouldn't be able to tell the difference between the two US slopes.

 

[gmax137]

You can also manipulate that number to yield the fraction of deaths that are due to Covid.

How do you do that?

 

[jack action]

Amazon city of Manaus may have reached 'herd immunity'

 

[mfb]

0.10% of the population died in Manaus. Some parts of NYC had more deaths. It's possible that the official number underestimates the total deaths of course.

 

[russ_watters]

Well, then it's completely useless for many people, me included. Public transport is the only place where I could get such a notification from...

The intended value is that you would respond to the notification by getting yourself tested.

if I'm longer close to other people elsewhere then I know these people or at least can make it easy for contact tracers to find them (and vice versa).

Hopefully your relative would let you know, but if they register their status on the app before letting you know, the app would.

But you're right, without true contact tracing/location tracking the value is extremely limited.

 

[OmCheeto]

How do you do that?

First, you have to figure out what the average, or usual, death rate is. Globally and in the US, it's around 20 deaths per million per day.
If you add Covid deaths to that, and divide by Covid deaths, it yields the ratio.
Of course, the usual death rate varies by location, but it's close enough for my purposes.

An alternative, but dreadfully time consuming procedure:
The CDC has a list of the weekly tally of deaths for all the states from 2017 to the present.
Using Mississippi as an example, you can see that deaths for the time period from 2017 to 2019 are fairly consistent.
2020 showed a marked increase.
Dividing the total deaths by the Covid deaths for the last two weeks in this graph, you get about 3.
So although Mississippi has a death rate of 28 X/M/D, the number came out very close to my 3.5 from my previous post.

 

[Astronuc]

I posted something to this effect on my Facebook page way back on June 25th.

Study the role of hubris in nations’ COVID-19 response

I probably came to the conclusion that hubris was a big factor, as by that time, New York City was the world leader in Covid deaths, and a blurb in the Urban Dictionary said; "When I was in the Bronx I got mugged, shot, raped, and murdered in a New York Minute."
Along with everything I've ever seen about NYC characterizing the populous as "tough".

In any event, I'm guessing there's some hubris involved with the following graph.

View attachment 269794

I was trying to figure out where the data originated.

Is it https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

Johns Hopkins is tracking the individual states in the US.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/state-timeline/new-confirmed-cases/new-york

Currently, NY State is about 1308 deaths/million, based on 25437 fatalities reported in a population of 19.45 million (2019). California reports 15204 deaths in a population of 39.51 million, or 384.8 deaths/million. Texas report 15129 deaths in a population of 29.0 million, or 521.7 deaths/million.

I'm not sure the value of such ratios.

 

[Vanadium 50]

2 out of 7 deaths in Mississippi for the last 2 months have been due to Covid.

I get more like 20%. But New York City was a factor of six. Yet we are exhorted to be like the "success" of New York City.

 

[OmCheeto]

I was trying to figure out where the data originated.

Is it https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

Johns Hopkins is tracking the individual states in the US.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/state-timeline/new-confirmed-cases/new-york

Currently, NY State is about 1308 deaths/million, based on 25437 fatalities reported in a population of 19.45 million (2019). California reports 15204 deaths in a population of 39.51 million, or 384.8 deaths/million. Texas report 15129 deaths in a population of 29.0 million, or 521.7 deaths/million.

I'm not sure the value of such ratios.

Most of my data comes from another Johns Hopkins site. They track both the US states and world nations.
If you see me post a graphic without attribution, it's most likely of my own creation.

I suppose deaths/million ratio let's you know how close to achieving herd immunity you are.
The top 10 zip codes in NYC average ≈5000 deaths/million. It's just an example that things can get a lot worse, if we let our guards down.

 

[mfb]

I get more like 20%. But New York City was a factor of six. Yet we are exhorted to be like the "success" of New York City.

By whom? Who claimed NYC was a success overall? You seem to see this everywhere apparently. I do not.
The first big outbreak was a disaster.
NYC got the new infections to a very low level after its first big outbreak. That's good.

 

[OmCheeto]

I get more like 20%. But New York City was a factor of six. Yet we are exhorted to be like the "success" of New York City.

I saw your "success" post from a few days ago. The only reference I could find was a NY Post article written by Rich Lowry. I disagreed with what he stated about what those people were calling a success.

 

[mfb]

I saw your "success" post from a few days ago. The only reference I could find was a NY Post article written by Rich Lowry. I disagreed with what he stated about what those people were calling a success.

That's just one more person complaining about these mysterious people who say NYC did everything right. Where are all these mysterious people?

 

[Vanadium 50]

Where are all these mysterious people?

I answered you the last time you asked.

 

[Vanadium 50]

NYC got the new infections to a very low level after its first big outbreak. That's good.

That's like saying that once a fire is done burning that it's under control.

 

[gmax137]

First, you have to figure out what the average, or usual, death rate is. Globally and in the US, it's around 20 deaths per million per day.
If you add Covid deaths to that, and divide by Covid deaths, it yields the ratio.
Of course, the usual death rate varies by location, but it's close enough for my purposes.

An alternative, but dreadfully time consuming procedure:
The CDC has a list of the weekly tally of deaths for all the states from 2017 to the present.
Using Mississippi as an example, you can see that deaths for the time period from 2017 to 2019 are fairly consistent.
2020 showed a marked increase.
Dividing the total deaths by the Covid deaths for the last two weeks in this graph, you get about 3.
So although Mississippi has a death rate of 28 X/M/D, the number came out very close to my 3.5 from my previous post.

View attachment 269954

Thanks Om.

20 per million per day would put Mississippi (3 million population) at around 420 per week, where your plots show 560? That would be... 27 per million per day. So Miss isn't doing well in a normal year. Still that 1 in 3 deaths due to Covid is a shocker.

https://msdh.ms.gov/msdhsite/_static/14,0,420.html

shows 2870 Covid deaths in the state; if we take that as over 240 days [March thru Sept] then I get 1 in 6.7 overall. But that neglects the June-July upswing.

 

[OmCheeto]

I answered you the last time you asked.

I'd personally like to see references to where each of those people said the entire NYC fiasco was a success, rather than someone else saying they said that.

 

[OmCheeto]

Thanks Om.

20 per million per day would put Mississippi (3 million population) at around 420 per week, where your plots show 560? That would be... 27 per million per day. So Miss isn't doing well in a normal year. Still that 1 in 3 deaths due to Covid is a shocker.

https://msdh.ms.gov/msdhsite/_static/14,0,420.html

shows 2870 Covid deaths in the state; if we take that as over 240 days [March thru Sept] then I get 1 in 6.7 overall. But that neglects the June-July upswing.

I did find quite a lot of variability for death rates among the states. I guessed Utah had the youngest and Florida had the oldest populations, and was not disappointed by their associated death rates on the following graph.

Mississippi has the # 1 poverty rate in the nation, is #2 from the bottom in life expectancy, and #2 most obese, so their death rate also kind of makes sense.

 

[jim mcnamara]

CDC release - age class infection rate COVID-19 - May-Aug 2020
Population of disease morbidity burden has shifted to younger ages.

Note the large increases in cases per 100,000 in the younger populations.

Example:
 age 0-9:  May=35.0, Aug=89.0 
 age 10-19: May=74.0, Aug=246.0

See Figure 1 for a graph, or Table for data points in
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/pdfs/mm6939e1-H.pdf

@OmCheeto may find this dataset useful.

 

[russ_watters]

That's like saying that once a fire is done burning that it's under control.

When I brought this up at least a month ago, I was criticized for what I guess was an over-extension of the term "herd immunity". The implication in the thread and presumably from those officials you mentioned is that New York City and surrounding areas are doing something uniquely excellent *today* to mitigate the virus spread. At the time I brought it up, several people said, 'well, it's not super unique, here are a few countries that are doing a similarly excellent job...' At the time it may not have been clear, but it should be now, that most of the world is experiencing a substantial second wave, including many of those cited as doing an excellent job: Japan, Germany, Norway, etc. At this point, if we ignore the first peak, New York's advancement would put them on the moon while everyone else is sailing square rigged frigates.

So yeah, I agree that it's a little silly to say, in effect, that they are doing a good job of hosing down the ashes after the fire went out.

[July 23]
As state hospitalizations reach their lowest levels since March, Governor Andrew Cuomo is praising the state's slow reopening process.

He says it has turned out for the best that New York took its time reopening.

States that reopened quickly are now shutting back down because of sharp spikes in COVID-19 cases.

He says New York's continued success is contingent on the rest of the country.

https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nys/c...w-york-s-slow-reopening-for-covid-19-progress

In any case, I'm sure Governor Cuomo would be delighted to receive inquiries from governments around the world on how to manage COVID and achieve his city/state's unique and spectacular success.

 

[mfb]

I answered you the last time you asked.

But not with what I asked about. You found examples of people who say NYC did a good job after the first big wave. That's very different from the mysterious people I still want to meet. Here is the post for reference

That's like saying that once a fire is done burning that it's under control.

That's what fire departments routinely do. But you are assuming general herd immunity in New York here, that's a questionable assumption. It probably contributes, okay, but it's not like NY ran out of people who can get sick.

At the time it may not have been clear, but it should be now, that most of the world is experiencing a substantial second wave, including many of those cited as doing an excellent job: Japan, Germany, Norway

You have seen Germany's "second wave" here? It's a single pixel in that graph.
Japan is at 80,000 cases. That's less than 1 in 1000.
Germany is at 280,000 cases, or ~3.5 per 1000.
Norway is at 13,000 cases, or ~3.5 per 1000.
All their new case counts are going down again and/or staying relatively low.. They are still doing a great job.
Germany's "substantial second wave" is ~1500 new cases/day. Scaled to the population of the US this would equal 6000 new cases per day.
Norway's "substantial second wave" is ~100 new cases/day, about the same per capita as Germany.
Japan's "substantial second wave" peaked at 1500/day (with 50% larger population than Germany), now they are down to ~400/day. Random comparison: Wisconsin with its population of 6 million has ~1500 new cases per day and more confirmed cases overall than Japan with its population of 125 million. Absolute deaths are about the same (1260 in Wisconsin vs. 1520 in Japan) despite a factor 20 in population.

 

[Ygggdrasil]

At the time it may not have been clear, but it should be now, that most of the world is experiencing a substantial second wave, including many of those cited as doing an excellent job: Japan, Germany, Norway, etc. At this point, if we ignore the first peak, New York's advancement would put them on the moon while everyone else is sailing square rigged frigates.

For reference, here is the 7-day rolling average of the daily new Coronavirus cases per million in Japan, Germany, and Norway compared to the US and France (which have experienced significant second waves):

(data downloaded from the ECDC on 9/24)

Cases have begun increasing slightly in Germany and Norway though not (yet?) to the extent seen in the US and France.

 

[morrobay]

For reference, here is the 7-day rolling average of the daily new Coronavirus cases per million in Japan, Germany, and Norway compared to the US and France (which have experienced significant second waves):
View attachment 269993
(data downloaded from the ECDC on 9/24)

Cases have begun increasing slightly in Germany and Norway though not (yet?) to the extent seen in the US and France.

France has had over 16000 new cases in past 24 hours. What is going on there ?

 

[Vanadium 50]

France has had over 16000 new cases in past 24 hours. What is going on there ?

These spikes are often caused by catching up with a backlog or by a redefinition of "case". (e.g. from presenting symptoms to a positive test)

 

[Vanadium 50]

So yeah, I agree that it's a little silly to say, in effect, that they are doing a good job of hosing down the ashes after the fire went out.

I think it's more than a little silly. People are making decisions based on this, decisions that affect other people's lives.

NYC has a population of 8.4 million. They have seen 24,000 deaths. If you take the 0.26% CDC "best estimate" (0.4% fatality rate if symptomatic, and 65% symptomatic) you find that 110% of the population is infected.

And yes, I know that the 0.26% has its uncertainties. Replacing 35% with 20%, as the previously posted meta-study reported, turns this to 90%. But qualitatively, it looks like yes, they are hosing down the ashes. Pretty much anyone who could catch it has caught it.

 

[Ygggdrasil]

These spikes are often caused by catching up with a backlog or by a redefinition of "case". (e.g. from presenting symptoms to a positive test)

As you can see from the graph I posted earlier, the rise in Coronavirus cases in France has been steadily rising since about August. Indeed, here's an article from Aug 17, noting the rise of Coronavirus cases in France:

Beaten Back, the Coronavirus Regains Strength in France
Faced with an increase in infections, especially among young adults, French health officials are expanding mask rules and warning against complacence.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/17/world/europe/france-coronavirus.html

The rise is not some illusory result of clearing a backlog of testing either as the AP reported two weeks ago on hospitals filling up in some of the hardest hit regions of France:

While France’s daily case count climbed back up as summer vacations brought relaxed virus vigilance, the number of infected patients in hospitals and intensive care units stayed low and stable for several weeks. Until now.

Doctors in Marseille — the country’s latest virus hotspot — started sounding the alarm this week. The 70 ICU beds dedicated to virus patients in France’s second-biggest city and the surrounding Bouches-du-Rhone region were all occupied by Tuesday. The number of ICU virus patients in the region has doubled in the past 10 days and now surpasses 100.

https://apnews.com/article/marseille-virus-outbreak-archive-france-41c2741ba71ef7457caaaa3183dccd01

Testing data from the Marseille region shows a clear pattern of the outbreak starting in young 20-29 year olds then spreading to the wider community, including the elderly who are much more susceptible to bad outcomes from the disease:

(source)

Similar dynamics have also been seen in data from Florida.

 

[Vanadium 50]

As you can see from the graph I posted earlier, the rise in Coronavirus cases in France has been steadily rising since about August. Indeed

Well, I was trying to explain why sometimes you get shocking numbers.

However, I think again we are looking at something very different between now and then. August 1 to Sept. 24 France went from 165,719 cases and 29861 fatalities to 497,237 cases and 31,511 fatalities. Fatalities per case has gone from 18% to 0.5%.

Put another way, two-thirds of the cases are post July 1st. But only 5% of the fatalities are.