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Vanadium 50 said:Eustace Charlton Haney is fictional, by the way.
Eustace Charlton Haney
OK, but please don't say that about Foghorn Leghorn...
Vanadium 50 said:Eustace Charlton Haney is fictional, by the way.
Does this help?PeroK said:My geography of small-town Kansas is not what it should be!
Something is amiss. Is the 7 hospitalizations for Gove County? According to the article, they send seriously ill patients to a hospital 50 miles away, which puts them in another county (not sure which one though). Looking at a map of Kansas, Gove County is <40 miles across east-west. The county area is 1,072 sq mi, or something like 35 miles (E-W) x 30.6 miles (N-S), or 34 miles x 31.5 miles.Vanadium 50 said:Oddly, Kansas reports only 7 hospitalizations (Sheridan reports 25) which seems low for 20 deaths.
https://www.ksn.com/news/health/cor...ansas-37-more-deaths-95-new-hospitalizations/WICHITA, Kan. (KSNW) — The number of people who have tested positive for the Coronavirus in Kansas increased by 4,724 over the weekend. It brings the state’s total since the pandemic began to 190,018.
Since Friday morning (i.e., over the weekend), the Kansas Department of Health and Environment (KDHE) is reporting 37 more Kansas deaths linked to COVID-19.
Another 95 Kansans have been hospitalized with COVID-19 symptoms and/or complications since Friday.
By the time commissioners passed the mask mandate on Nov. 16, more than 1 out of every 10 county residents had contracted the virus. At least a dozen of them had died.
In contrast,Southwest Kansas counties have a total ICU capacity of 22 beds at 18 hospitals for the region's roughly 143,000 residents, state officials report.
On Sept. 1, those hospitals reported 17 ICU patients, including nine hospitalized with COVID-19. By Dec. 7, 18 of the 21 ICU patients were being treated for COVID-19 and only one staffed bed remained open. Another 63 people with COVID-19 filled other in-patient beds.
. . .
Some hospitals have run out of beds and are transferring people to Denver or other cities in Kansas, though the state doesn’t publicly track those numbers. . . .
Why are these places to watch? How's Lansdale doing? I don't understand this fascination with small communities (except for the obvious provocation value). I don't see any value in the statistics of small numbers here. There is huge opportunity for error or outlier irrelevancy and no insight that I can see even if the numbers are accurate. E.G., if those numbers are real, what can we do with them?Astronuc said:I expect USA Today to sensationalize headlines and the story. I don't care much for that practice or the political aspect. I was just interested in the fact that many thought the community had dodged the coronavirus, until they didn't.
Another place to watch is Ford County (pop. 33,619 (2019)) and Dodge City (est. pop. 27,329 (2018)) with 4914 cases of COVID-19, but only 10 deaths.
The virus is spread by close contact; so we should expect pockets of higher case rates, not an even spread with 1/20 cases throughout the population and a death rate of 0-5 out of every 2,500 people.mfb said:Sheridan County has a population 2556. With the average US rates we expect 2 deaths. Everything from 0 to ~5 isn't surprising in any way.
Gove County has a population of 2695. 20 deaths here are far higher than normal.
Vanadium 50 said:PS "Republican leaning"? That sounds political to me.
brainpushups said:Obviously looking at single towns, or perhaps even cities, there are going to be outliers for in either direction from the national trend by political partisanship.
Vanadium 50 said:If you look state-by-state I don't think one can draw conclusions. Wave 1 hit blue states harder. Waves 1 and Waves 3 are anticorrelated. Wave 3 hit red states harder. Which is cause and which is effect?
V50 said first wave; that link's graphic starts in June. The first wave hammered liberal states, in particular in the New England region. It gets fuzzier when you look at pandemic totals, though, since the testing rates are vastly different for the different waves/stages.brainpushups said:I'm not sure about that. Based on the second source I provided above the top 11 states with fewest cases per million are democratic (one neutral) based on the partisanship metric used, and the top 9 states with most cases per million are republican (one neutral). I'm referring to the most recent numbers, not the trend over time.
russ_watters said:V50 said first wave; that link's graphic starts in June. The first wave hammered liberal states, in particular in the New England region.
I think it's unlikely to flip back, but no, I don't recall the news media taking the opportunity to point out the partisan disparities in the other direction when they existed/had the opportunity. What I remember from the media analysis in the spring was a heavy focus on racial disparities...which is related, but a different spin.brainpushups said:I understand that. But the overall rates of infection and deaths right now are distributed differently. My point was that, though it may be misleading for news sources to pick individual towns/cities/counties when they say "Hey look at this case/death rate and the fact that they are democratic/republican" there is a definite correlation between partisanship and case/death rates at the state level.
Maybe that doesn't mean much. Maybe the trend will flip and in a few months we'll see USA Today headlines about how democratic towns have the nations highest death rates and this will reflect a shifted nationwide trend where democratic states are back at the top.
Vanadium 50 said:The correlation between deaths per million and the Cook Political Index is -0.10. Republican defined as positive, so the fatality rate is incrementally lower in red states. But 0.1 is very low - it means 1% of the effect could possibly be ascribed to this factor. I think this makes a pretty strong case that the partisan effect is chasing ghosts.
Lack of people wearing masks during a pandemic has consequences. Incidentally, some folks from Quinter (Gove County) have been interviewed following the article in USAToday.russ_watters said:Why are these places to watch? How's Lansdale doing?
GOVE COUNTY, Kan. (KWCH) - With numbers showing that about one out of every 132 of its people has died from COVID-19, a report published last week in USA Today calls Gove County “The deadliest place in America.” The distinction comes because, as of last Thursday (Dec. 10) COVID-19 has killed a higher percentage of Gove County residents than any other county in the U.S. As of late last week, there were 20 COVID-19-related deaths in the county with a population of about 2,600 residents.
While COVID-19 has hit the rural community hard, Eyewitness News spoke with Gove County Medical Center CEO David Caudill who said recent numbers tell a different story, showing improvements from the past couple of months. In October, Caudill was among 50 employees at the hospital in Quinter who tested positive for COVID-19. In response to a spike in cases, the Gove County Commission on Nov. 23 passed an emergency resolution that requires masks in public.
Gove County Sheriff Alan Weber has been hospitalized since mid-October and has been on a ventilator for weeks at a hospital in Denver (about 280 miles W from Quinter).
Top 15 Counties and least populous county in NY, by population, Pos. Cov and deaths
County Pop. 2019 Pos. Covid % of pop Deaths % of pop
1 Kings 2,559,903 102995 4.02% 5266 0.206%
2 Queens 2,253,858 104668 4.64% 5251 0.233%
3 New York 1,628,706 53345 3.28% 2180 0.134%
4 Suffolk 1,476,601 76625 5.19% 2132 0.144%
5 Bronx 1,418,207 72409 5.11% 3470 0.245%
6 Nassau 1,356,924 72122 5.32% 2304 0.170%
7 Westchester 967,506 59991 6.20% 1575 0.163%
8 Erie 918,702 33793 3.68% 983 0.107%
9 Monroe 741,770 24293 3.28% 375 0.051%
10 Richmond 476,143 28810 6.05% 831 0.175%
11 Onondaga 460,528 15722 3.41% 288 0.063%
12 Orange 384,940 19892 5.17% 469 0.122%
13 Rockland 325,789 24334 7.47% 554 0.170%
14 Albany 305,506 8214 2.69% 173 0.057%
15 Dutchess 294,218 9482 3.22% 208 0.071%
62 Hamilton 4,416 70 1.59% 1 0.023%
My interest in rural counties, or small communities, relates to several interests. The first five years of my life, I lived in two small towns, then my family moved to the suburbs of a large city. I started university in a large city then transferred to a state university in a moderate size city. In my professional life, I've lived in two semi-rural areas outside of two small cities. When I leave my current job, I'll be looking for opportunities in small rural areas, and I believe that rural areas are underserved, particularly regarding healthcare.I don't understand this fascination with small communities (except for the obvious provocation value).
Selected small counties in Montana
Rank County Pop (2019) Pos Cov % of pop Deaths % of pop
37 Mineral 4,397 111 2.52% 0 0%
43 Liberty 2,337 97 4.15% 1 0.043%
44 Wheatland 2,126 119 5.60% 6 0.282%
The USA Today article contains many anecdotes about controversy over mask wearing, but exactly zero statistics about it. Maybe that was a factor, maybe it wasn't; the article doesn't present a data-backed case. That's how the media works; primarily what gets clicks and views is compelling stories. Data is boring and is best avoided. Facts are nice to have, but aren't critical when crafting a compelling story. The narrative is what matters.Astronuc said:Lack of people wearing masks during a pandemic has consequences. Incidentally, some folks from Quinter (Gove County) have been interviewed following the article in USAToday.
https://www.kwch.com/2020/12/14/nat...-kansas-community-deadliest-place-in-america/
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I track Montgomery County data daily, with my own spreadsheet, so I'm fully aware of the status and evolution of the pandemic here. My point is that data on small towns is not very useful for insightful analysis or broad conclusions. Turns out, Pennsylvania doesn't consider small towns even relevant enough to report data for towns like Lansdale. And why should they? In the half hour drive to my parents' place in Lansdale, I drive through at least 5 towns of a few thousand residents, while remaining in Montgomery County.I couldn't readily find out about Lansdale (Pa, I presume), but I found the Montgomery county (PA) dashboard, and the state dashboard, which oddly, don't agree (with the state showing higher numbers).
I'm certain people will. And I'm certain much of it will be spun to fit agendas, and even when people try to do honest analysis it will be difficult to keep biases at bay and draw salient conclusions. There are a lot of variables to account for and the data is very noisy.As of 2020, there are currently 3,143 counties and county-equivalents in the 50 states and the District of Columbia. If the 100 county equivalents in the U.S. territories are counted, then the total is 3,243 counties and county-equivalents in the United States. Ideally, someone would do some big data analysis of the pandemic and determined why some counties had low incidence of infection/mortality and others higher.
Yes, that's my point. And at the next level, you also can't really compare pandemic totals either, because of the differences between the waves:Ivan Seeking said:You can't compare the first wave to this one.
Vanadium 50 said:Do you see a trend there? I sure don't. People who are arguing that their political tribe is doing best are starting with the conclusion and fiddling with the data to support it. They sure aren't looking at the above data and drawing conclusions from it.
brainpushups said:If folks want to slice up the time intervals
Vanadium 50 said:I consider this an example of starting with the conclusion, and figuring out what cuts are needed to get the data to show it.
I agree. My complaint is fairly specific to the types of stories posted in this thread recently. They are basically saying; "Red states/counties/towns/households/people are managing the pandemic poorly because they are red." Period. Little or no context and no or cherry-picked data, with heavy emphasis on anecdotal narratives. These are not scientific reports.brainpushups said:Maybe. Maybe not. I don't think it is unreasonable to look at different time intervals and I can imagine that some folks looked into this without being motivated by partisanship.
russ_watters said:I'm seeing a lot fewer reports of temporary field hospital deployment during the current wave than in the first one.