COVID Covid Variant Omicron (B.1.1.529)

[bhobba]

Just an update from here in Aus. It is racing through Queensland, where I am. We opened up (i.e. drastically reduced restrictions) precisely the same time as Omicron hit. We have gone from zero to over 10,000 cases a day - and rapidly climbing. At least, while some restrictions have again been introduced, like mask-wearing, it is more 'sensible' this time. For example, we were worried about people not wearing a mask while out in a small tin boat in the middle of the Brisbane river doing a bit of fishing. That is now OK. Authorities are now more worried about indoors and crowds.

People were ecstatic just before Christmas when Queensland opened up. We had families reunited, etc., and how fantastic it was. Of course, it was great for the people concerned. But as I pointed out - wait a minute, the new variant spreads ultra fast. We could have many people in isolation and not spend Christmas with family and friends. That is exactly what happened.

The following is a precis from today's local newspaper, the Courier-Mail. It is behind a paywall, so I can only give a summary.

Peter Collignon from the ANU said, "For fully vaccinated people, comparing Omicron and a "bad flu" was valid; however, the unvaccinated remained at risk of getting severely ill. If you're double vaccinated, your chances of coming into grief from Covid currently are lower than your death and complication rate in winter in the flu season. Covid, in general, had a 20-30% higher complication rate than influenza, but with vaccination, you got that down by 20%, and with Omicron, it comes down further. Once you're vaccinated, at least double vaccinated, it's in the same ballpark as a bad winter influenza season."

If true, it sounds positive. I feel better being triple vaccinated. But of course, being immunocompromised, I am taking every precaution possible, i.e. going out as little as possible, wearing a mask everywhere, getting someone to do my shopping etc.

The following may not be behind a paywall. Let me know if it is:
https://sydneynewstoday.com/omicron-may-have-the-same-health-effects-as-the-2017-flu-season/489671/

Thanks
Bill

 

[russ_watters]

You are absolutely correct and I should have mentioned that. But it is salient if you are worried about other folks being positive as a reason to get tested.

That's an interesting problem. There's more to my story:
My girlfriend traveled with family to a bigger family party on Christmas Eve. One of the kids she drove with had a little sore throat. Uh oh. When they got to the party the host gave them all at-home, rapid test strips. All negative. So 3 days later when she passed the infection on to me (my choice to take the risk), I was pretty sure it wasn't COVID...despite the fact that my GF was so sick she may as well have been run over by a truck (primary symptom: a really bad cough).

If the test had a 1% false positive rate, and there were 10 of them, the group would have had something like a 10% chance of seeing a false positive, and they all would have gone into quarantine, wrecking everyone's Christmas plans. Ok. But what if instead of an at-home party they'd have gone to a hockey game or concert with the same test at the door? To your point, that strategy wouldn't be workable; they'd basically be guaranteed to have a bunch of false positives and everyone would need quarantine regardless of if there were any actual positives or not. So, point taken.

Also it is difficult to generate accurate statistics for the efficacy of the test if the rate of infection is low . I do not know how good those tests are ( I don't think anyone does ) and I don't think generic testing really does much good.

Yeah, and believe me I looked hard for an answer to that question last week!

Get vaccinated, wear a mask (and yell at people who won't) and if you need a test for diagnostic reasons go for pcr test

Still more to the story: I probably wouldn't have even bothered to get tested if I wasn't scheduled for minor knee surgery last Thursday. But a PCR test takes 3 days to get results and rapid tests aren't accepted as proof of negativity for clinical purposes. So I waited in that line at 7:30am on my day off for nothing (I found out later that day...).

 

[kyphysics]

Sorry to hear that. Must be local/cultural differences. Mine was orderly and well-spaced out.

...er, well, now that I look at it, the girl behind me was crowding me!

Yeah, the girl crowding you was like the NORM in my office line. I will say, though, that these lines are getting to be annoying everywhere across the U.S. Everyone's going in for COVID tests, due to work requirements and exposure and doctor's offices and pharmacies are getting slammed pretty hard right now.

Hopefully, this dies down in a month or so, but I'd hate to be going in regularly. Such a waste of time standing in line!

 

[kyphysics]

. But a PCR test takes 3 days to get results and rapid tests aren't accepted as proof of negativity for clinical purposes.

Who/What does accept rapid tests right now? Anyone know?

 

[bhobba]

I will say, though, that these lines are getting to be annoying everywhere across the U.S. Everyone's going in for COVID tests, due to work requirements and exposure and doctor's offices and pharmacies are getting slammed pretty hard right now.

Same here in Brisbane and Aus in general. Except people are not socially distanced. How close they are here makes me wonder if they are superspreader events considering how long you have to wait.

See:
https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/australia/do-not-defecate-in-gardens-toilet-troubles-in-strained-testing-queues/news-story/da5f23dca8060b6c17fc535c59294a7d

This is NOT the Australia I was raised in.

Thanks
Bill

 

[Astronuc]

That's where the process failed for me. Two months ago I had a similar scare, and made a next-day appointment with CVS. Two of them, in fact, after I decided I wanted both a rapid and PRC test. This time? Nope, a week+ out. The only appointments available were on the day in the future that just got opened for appointments. Where (what type of service provider) did she make the appointment with?

My son was potentially exposed twice in two weeks by co-workers who tested positive. He was able to schedule a test for the next morning. The county was having low levels of cases, perhaps 10 to 20/day, and the number of active cases was falling (April) or very low (May). Now, since the beginning of the year, we have averaged more than 700 cases/day, and the number of active cases is more than 6200 (2.5 the previous maximum of last January), with 152 hospitalizations, which is close to where we were this time a year ago. We reached a peak hospitalization of 172 on 27 January, 2021. With the high number of positive cases, we'll have to see if the hospitalizations and mortality continue to increase for the next three weeks.

I don't know how long it would take to get an appointment for a test, but we can call either Walgreens or a testing lab for an appointment, and drive up. The specimen is collected outside.

 

[bhobba]

Letter sent to all staff in one of our major hospitals:

"Hi everyone -

Please be aware that we are in Tier 3 Pandemic. The entire hospital and HHS is under duress and staffing is at a minimum.

We will not have the most ideal ratios nor will we have all the support we had hoped for... however we do have each other.

Prioritise tasks. Take extra breaks; talk to each other, cry... whatever you need.

Whatever you need from me, let me know. Your hard work is appreciated.

Anyone interested in an extra shift at any time, please let us know ASAP. "

Things are really starting to get serious here.

Thanks
Bill

 

[StevieTNZ]

Glad I live in New Zealand!

 

[bhobba]

Who/What does accept rapid tests right now? Anyone know?

All I can say is what is happening here in Aus. The way it works, and this is just recently, is everyone accepts the negative of a rapid test. But if positive, you must get a PCR test immediately. Authorities had to do it because of the debacle in how long PCR tests were taking. People were defecating in gardens. It never ceases to amaze me the lack of proactive planning from many of our bureaucrats.

Thanks
Bill

 

[bhobba]

Glad I live in New Zealand!

I would be too.

I don't know how long it will last:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid...n-18-days-not-180/J4QEAWTPQ76CPQXDD5ZCFYYFWU/

Get your third dose ASAP. I am happy my doctor didn't even give me a choice. He said you are booked in tomorrow.

Thanks
Bill

 

[kyphysics]

People were defecating in gardens. It never ceases to amaze me the lack of proactive planning from many of our bureaucrats.

Pooping in gardens? How long were these lines?

 

[Hornbein]

That's interesting, but that has no impact on the likelihood that an individual gets a false positive, right?

That's correct, but it does impact the odds of whether your positive result is false, which is the main thing.

I'm in Spain. The rate of infection is higher than it ever was before, but the hospitals aren't overflowing and fatalities are few so there isn't that much worry about it. About half the people I know have tested positive. The two people I have been living with didn't get it.

At home self tests are readily available here. Though the price doubled from 3 euros to 6.

 

[Astronuc]

I don't know how long it would take to get an appointment for a test, but we can call either Walgreens or a testing lab for an appointment, and drive up. The specimen is collected outside.

Well, I just found out that through Walgreens, demand is so high in the region, that it might not be possible to get a test for about 1 week. My son has an appointment for testing tomorrow at a nearby walk-in clinic (one of few available), but it should be outdoors.

My son was potentially exposed by a coworker - again.

It appears that his workplace is not very restrictive, so they have not asked him for a negative test before he can work again. In fact, they quickly removed protections as soon as the state relaxed mandates. They recently implemented the mask mandate again in response to elevated numbers of positive COVID cases in the county/state.

 

[chemisttree]

I just found out that two of my coworkers and their entire families caught the C! All were double jabbed and boosted. All symptoms were mild except in one case… the one without comorbidities was the worst case! She is just now back on her feet after three days of feeling horrible body aches.

 

[StevieTNZ]

I'm due to get my booster on 12 January or after. I've just arranged with daddy daddy that after he finishes work on Wednesday we go to the Queensgate mall pharmacy and get it via a walk-in. My 2nd dose of Pfizer was administered 12 September.

 

[Astronuc]

New York State numbers indicate an increased mortality in the younger population, probably because more kids are contracting SARS-Cov-2. The younger folk are still at risk.

                                         1/6/22       
Age Group    Cum. Deaths   New Deaths   YTD Deaths   YTD/Cum
90 and Over      7,687         32          123        0.016
80 to 89        13,107         37          168        0.013
70 to 79        12,711         40          162        0.013
60 to 69         8,988         23          117        0.013
50 to 59         4,278         15           73        0.017
40 to 49         1,526          4           23        0.015
30 to 39           635          2           10        0.016
20 to 29           198          1            7        0.035
10 to 19            25          1            3        0.120
  0 to 9            21          1            3        0.143
  Total         49,176        156          689

Washington state reported 12,408 confirmed positive cases yesterday, with another 2,749 probable, or a total of 15,157 positive cases.

I know Florida and Texas are reporting high case loads and hospitalizations.

Florida now reports a cumulative 4,562,954 positive cases and 62,688 deaths since March of since the beginning of the pandemic. The state reported 397,114 new positive cases this past week ending 6 Jan. In the week ending 11/26 (Thanksgiving Week) the number of new cases was for the week was 10,875. Cases began to increase the following week to 13,451 (12/03), 29,514 (12/10), 128,151 (12/17), 297,888 (12/24) to now.
https://floridahealthcovid19.gov/
See - Weekly Florida COVID-19 Data

California reports 5,634,357 cumulative positive cases, 76,341 cumulative deaths.
https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DCDC/Pages/COVID-19/CovidDataAndTools.aspx

Texas reports 4,098,354 cumulative confirmed positive cases, 848,513 probable cases, and 75,128 deaths due to COVID-19. Texas estimates 485,315 active cases.
https://dshs.texas.gov/coronavirus/AdditionalData.aspx

 

[Tom.G]

In New York City, 51 percent of those considered to be hospitalized with Covid were for reasons other than the virus itself.

While there are 11,548 New Yorkers hospitalized who have tested positive for Covid, only 6,620 were admitted as a result of Covid or complications from the disease. That means that 43 percent of those counted were admitted for reasons believed to be unrelated to the coronavirus.

https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/H...l_review_738/809d25654f238ebf69c36a7eb3bbf4fd

(above from: https://news.yahoo.com/data-york-differentiates-between-patients-213613061.html)

 

[Astronuc]

Some hospitals are seeing more patients with incidental COVID-19 cases, or patients who were primarily admitted for other ailments and test positive.

Officials from New York City-based NYU Langone Health told The New York Times in a Jan. 4 report that about 65 percent of its COVID-19 patients were "incidentally" found to be infected after admission for other reasons. New York Gov. Kathy Hochul asked hospitals to adjust their reporting on COVID-19 hospitalizations beginning Jan. 4 to make the distinction between those admitted for the virus as their primary condition and those who incidentally test positive.

Hospitals across the U.S. reported similar trends. Fifty three percent of 471 COVID-19 patients at Jackson (Fla.) Health System were primarily admitted for other reasons, and at Baltimore-based Johns Hopkins Medicine, about 20 percent of patients seeking non-COVID-19-related care are testing positive.

https://www.beckershospitalreview.c...e-patients-with-covid-19-vs-for-covid-19.html

New York state, which set yet another record (90,132) of new positive COVID-19 cases on Friday, will apparently start report the number of incidental COVID-19 infections cases in hospitalized individuals.

As New York’s daily COVID-19 cases shatter records, authorities are racing to better gauge the highly contagious omicron variant’s threat to New Yorkers and hospitals.

Among the most pressing questions: How many New Yorkers are hospitalized directly due to COVID-19, and how many patients were admitted for other health conditions and then tested positive for COVID-19?

Gov. Kathy Hochul on Monday said answers would be forthcoming, as hospitals statewide would begin tracking and reporting the so-called incidental positive COVID-19 test results among patients admitted for other conditions.

https://www.lohud.com/story/news/co...spitalizations-breakthrough-cases/9093930002/

New York has reported about 447,000 breakthrough infections overall through Dec. 28, the latest state data show. That corresponded to 3.4% of the population of fully vaccinated New Yorkers ages 12 and above.
. . .
Further, about 16,600 COVID-19 hospitalizations among fully vaccinated New Yorkers have been reported, which corresponds to a fraction, or well below 1%, of fully vaccinated New Yorkers in the same age group.

While the latest New York breakthrough data reinforced studies suggesting COVID-19 vaccines sustained a level of protection against omicron, the variant has contributed to a spike of 220,000 breakthrough cases, or 97%, from Dec. 13 to 28.

An example of an incidental case -
Clin Nucl Med 2020 Aug; 45(8):649-651. doi: 10.1097/RLU.0000000000003135.

A case of an asymptomatic (no fever, no cough, no dyspnea) 80-year-old woman who had an F-FDG PET/CT scan for initial staging of Lieberkühnian adenocarcinoma is reported. "Chest analysis incidentally revealed bilateral diffuse patchy ground-glass opacity with mild increasing F-FDG uptake, consistent with incidental COVID-19 infection finding during the March 2020 pandemic. The infection was confirmed by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction."

Even asymptomatic cases may have lung damage which could potentially shorten one's life or complicated medical treatment.

 

[Ygggdrasil]

Even though many COVID-19 hospitalizations are incidental cases admitted for reasons other than COVID-19 symptoms, there is still plenty of evidence that the Omicron surge is straining hospital capacity. For example, in Chicago:

Illinois hospitals running short on inpatient beds are increasingly housing patients in their emergency rooms, creating a situation some doctors say threatens the quality of care.

As of Sunday night, the most recent state data available, Chicago hospitals had 239 people waiting in beds in ERs for space elsewhere in the hospital to open up — the highest level ever measured during the pandemic. An additional 220 people were waiting in ERs in hospitals in suburban Cook County, and with more still in the regions covering DuPage and Kane counties (50), Lake and McHenry counties (39) and Will and Kankakee (27).

https://www.chicagotribune.com/coro...0220107-7av65zhpp5gwriiqiiixxwfnhu-story.html

This follows the Governor of Illinois calling on hospitals to halt non-emergency procedures in order to free up hospital beds for COVID-19 patients. The surge of patients requiring hospitalization, combined with staffing shortages due to COVID-19 cases among staff, suggest that the current Omicron wave is putting serious strain on the medical system's capabilities, at least in some areas of the country.

 

[Astronuc]

at least in some areas of the country.

The current peak of active COVID cases is just over 8300 in our county compared to the peak of 2600 during last January. Hospitalizations are only 155, which is under the peak of 162 about this time last year. I'm not sure about ICU capacity, since the data seem to be lagging by a couple of weeks, but last year, it was about 80 to 90% full.

Pediatric hospitalizations have increased in NY and NJ. The data are lagging.
https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/cor...italizations-up-8x-most-unvaccinated/3485199/

Friday's report indicates the situation only continued to get worse after that. In the week ended Jan. 1, there were 571 pediatric COVID hospitalizations statewide, the New York State Department of Health said, up from 70 just weeks previously.

Of those admitted, 91% of kids ages 5-11 were unvaccinated, as well as 65% of kids ages 12 to 17.

But overall, more than half of the hospitalizations were in kids ages 4 and under, who aren't eligible for vaccines yet. Kids under age 4 represent about a quarter of all kids in the state, meaning they're being hospitalized at about double their proportion of the population.

In New York City alone, COVID hospitalizations in those 18 and under increased 17-fold, more than double the growth rate for the population as a whole.

In NJ, there was a slight reduction of children hospitalized.
https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2022...ed-to-know-and-how-much-you-should-worry.html

As of Friday morning, 95 children across the state were hospitalized with COVID-19, down from 119 on Thursday but almost double the number from late December, according to the Department of Health. Another eight kids were under investigation for the coronavirus.

But only 24 of the 95 confirmed cases had a principal diagnosis of COVID-19, the state health department said, meaning the other kids went to the hospital for reasons unrelated to the virus and tested positive once there.

 

[russ_watters]

...there is still plenty of evidence that the Omicron surge is straining hospital capacity.

The current peak of active COVID cases is just over 8300 in our county compared to the peak of 2600 during last January. Hospitalizations are only 155, which is under the peak of 162 about this time last year.

If cases haven't peaked, then hospitalizations haven't either. What's the lag, 1-2 weeks? This is crazy:

[Source: Philly Inquirer, today]

In the next few weeks, are the rate of hospitalizations and deaths going to increase by a factor of five? Ten?!

 

[Astronuc]

In the next few weeks, are the rate of hospitalizations and deaths going to increase by a factor of five? Ten?!

It's hard to tell. The county just reported 5 deaths in one day, but that could actually be over two or three days. I don't think the cumulative deaths will increase by a factor or 5 or 10, but will increase. Last January, we had 119 deaths due to COVID, followed by 48 death in February, and 17 in March. I suspect we will repeat that, or something close, this year (maybe 200 fatalities by May). From the 1 May though 7 August, we had 7 COVID deaths, about 1 every 3 weeks, then during the second week of August, the cases and deaths started increasing again. In our county, we notice deaths (and cases) increase after holidays (people get together or congregate in close proximity in closed places) and when people relax mask wearing.

Last year we had very few vaccinated - maybe less than 1% in January. This year about we have about 66% vaccinated, Omicron appears to be less severe than Delta, and there are more treatment options, e.g., Paxlovid. I don't know how the hospitals are treating folks, i.e., with monoclonal antibodies, but they probably get a standard treatment for COVID.

My son tested negative on a quick test, but we are waiting for results of his PCR test. He's been coughing slightly and feeling slightly fatigued, but no apparent fever. It could be dry air due to below freezing conditions outside.

 

[kyphysics]

Texas and Florida cases are scary. Look at the Omicron wave vs. all others (incl., Delta). It's no comparison. Omicron is wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy more infectious.

But deaths have been relatively low in Florida w/ Omicron.

 

[kyphysics]

Maybe that's why teachers are on strike for returning to in-school learning there? Inner-city areas (of which IL has a bunch) make it tough to socially distance properly too.

*I really do promise I'm not getting paid by E-Ding.*

 

[kyphysics]

U.S. reports 1.35 million COVID-19 cases in a day, shattering global record​

https://www.reuters.com/business/he...ases-day-shattering-global-record-2022-01-11/

The previous record was 1.03 million cases on Jan. 3. A large number of cases are reported each Monday due to many states not reporting over the weekend. The seven-day average for new cases has tripled in two weeks to over 700,000 new infections a day.The record in new cases came the same day as the nation saw the number of hospitalized COVID-19 patients also hit an all-time high, having doubled in three weeks, according to a Reuters tally.

 

[Astronuc]

From the Reuters article

There were more than 136,604 people hospitalized with COVID-19, surpassing the record of 132,051 set in January last year.

 

[StevieTNZ]

Pfizer is racing ahead with plans to manufacture 50 million to 100 million doses of a new Omicron-specific version of its Covid-19 vaccine, a reflection of rising concerns that current vaccine formulations may need to be tweaked for the new threat. Pfizer also is testing hybrid combinations of vaccine to target multiple Coronavirus forms, as well as larger doses.

-- https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/he...lion-doses-of-omicronspecific-covid19-vaccine

 

[chemisttree]

It's hard to tell. The county just reported 5 deaths in one day, but that could actually be over two or three days. I don't think the cumulative deaths will increase by a factor or 5 or 10, but will increase. Last January, we had 119 deaths due to COVID, followed by 48 death in February, and 17 in March. I suspect we will repeat that, or something close, this year (maybe 200 fatalities by May). From the 1 May though 7 August, we had 7 COVID deaths, about 1 every 3 weeks, then during the second week of August, the cases and deaths started increasing again. In our county, we notice deaths (and cases) increase after holidays (people get together or congregate in close proximity in closed places) and when people relax mask wearing.

Last year we had very few vaccinated - maybe less than 1% in January. This year about we have about 66% vaccinated, Omicron appears to be less severe than Delta, and there are more treatment options, e.g., Paxlovid. I don't know how the hospitals are treating folks, i.e., with monoclonal antibodies, but they probably get a standard treatment for COVID.

My son tested negative on a quick test, but we are waiting for results of his PCR test. He's been coughing slightly and feeling slightly fatigued, but no apparent fever. It could be dry air due to below freezing conditions outside.

I hope your son has a very mild case of whatever he has.
Regarding monoclonal antibodies, I understood that once admitted, monoclonal antibodies treatment is off the table?

“Casirivimab and imdevimab are not authorized for patients who are hospitalized due to COVID-19 or require oxygen therapy due to COVID-19.”

 

[Astronuc]

Regarding monoclonal antibodies, I understood that once admitted, monoclonal antibodies treatment is off the table?

I don't know the current protocols, but I'll try to find out from a local doctor. My GP/primary physician treated a patient with COVID.

 

[chemisttree]

I believe that once admitted to the hospital the EUA protection/authorization is not allowed. I would be very surprised if a hospital would go against the FDA on something like this.
Outpatient treatment is OK.