COVID Covid Variant Omicron (B.1.1.529)

[StevieTNZ]

I made it to the end of 2021 without catching Covid! Woo!

As for Omicron, it continues to be detected at the border in MIQ cases - 10 yesterday. Two cases were "briefly active" in the community around Christmas but most close contacts have all tested negative. Hopefully there is no undetected spread of it. It is just currently delta that we're battling with, though numbers tend to be dropping despite the move to the 'traffic light' Covid framework.

 

[Ygggdrasil]

This was also the shortcoming in my country at first they pretty much counted everyone under Covid death category who died and also had a positive test at or before death.
I may stand corrected but I think that you don't die from Covid itself just as you don't die from the flu, you die from the more serious side effects that some get after or during the infection.
The only way to accurately count deaths would be to actually only label "Covid death" those people who actually had a Covid infection related health problem.
I know a woman , relative, who died from cancer , she was already on her last minutes and then Covid came. They labeled her as Covid death simply because of the positive test. In fact Covid had next to nothing to do with her passing.

But then you run into problems with those folks that have serious long term preexisting conditions and then due to Covid the condition worsens and the person dies, technically without Covid they may have lived a couple more years so you have to count them as Covid victims.

I hope the way statistics is made has been updated and is more precise as we move on.

A good statistic that can try to distinguish "deaths with COVID" from "deaths from COVID" is excess deaths. Essentially, it compares the current death rate with the average pre-pandemic death rate from a similar period in time. This helps distinguish whether the rate of deaths is elevated over the normal baseline level of deaths. However, these data are somewhat slower to collect, so it is harder to measure the effect of Omicron on excess deaths at the moment.

Of course, excess death does have some limitations. One assumption in the excess death data is that the excess deaths are all directly attributable to COVID-19, but there could be some other causes of excess deaths that cause the mortality of COVID-19 to be overestimated (e.g. if people are more hesitant to seek medical care and die as a result, this could contribute to excess mortality without being a death directly due to COVID-19). Similarly, if the pandemic indirectly decreases other rates of death (e.g. if lockdowns lower the rate of fatalities from car accidents), this could cause the mortality of COVID-19 to be underestimated by excess mortality statistics.

Here are some sites with data on excess mortality:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid

 

[artis]

One assumption in the excess death data is that the excess deaths are all directly attributable to COVID-19, but there could be some other causes of excess deaths that cause the mortality of COVID-19 to be overestimated (e.g. if people are more hesitant to seek medical care and die as a result, this could contribute to excess mortality without being a death directly due to COVID-19).

Exactly, in fact in my country the lines and waiting periods for crucial diagnostics have gone sky high during the worst peaks of the pandemic simply due to the shortage of staff and hospital space being taken up by sick patients of Covid. I tried to get in line for a lower back MRI which admittedly is not a first priority diagnostic health-wise and the date is next year around this time...That is for state sponsored diagnostic , if I pay cash I can probably get few weeks.
Sure enough the effect mostly goes to the folks who are with chronic long term issues like cancer and they do get their treatment timely but some other factors which are also among the most common causes of death like heart problems do get treated less now so I suspect there could be excess deaths simply due to lack or delay of medical attention for certain risk groups.

 

[atyy]

A good statistic that can try to distinguish "deaths with COVID" from "deaths from COVID" is excess deaths. Essentially, it compares the current death rate with the average pre-pandemic death rate from a similar period in time. This helps distinguish whether the rate of deaths is elevated over the normal baseline level of deaths. However, these data are somewhat slower to collect, so it is harder to measure the effect of Omicron on excess deaths at the moment.

Of course, excess death does have some limitations. One assumption in the excess death data is that the excess deaths are all directly attributable to COVID-19, but there could be some other causes of excess deaths that cause the mortality of COVID-19 to be overestimated (e.g. if people are more hesitant to seek medical care and die as a result, this could contribute to excess mortality without being a death directly due to COVID-19). Similarly, if the pandemic indirectly decreases other rates of death (e.g. if lockdowns lower the rate of fatalities from car accidents), this could cause the mortality of COVID-19 to be underestimated by excess mortality statistics.

Here are some sites with data on excess mortality:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid

In the UK, analysis of publicly available data is good enough to show that almost all excess deaths have Covid as a cause.

 

[chemisttree]

In the UK, analysis of publicly available data is good enough to show that almost all excess deaths have Covid as a cause.

That analysis is based on a report for week 44 of 2021. What week was Omicron discovered in the UK?

 

[pinball1970]

That analysis is based on a report for week 44 of 2021. What week was Omicron discovered in the UK?

27.11.21 according to this article

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...cron-variant-arrive-in-uk-and-is-it-spreading

 

[Astronuc]

That analysis is based on a report for week 44 of 2021. What week was Omicron discovered in the UK?

The first case of Omicron was announced on 24 November by South Africa, with the first positive sample dating back to 9 November. Since then it has been found in multiple countries around the world, including the UK, where the first cases were reported on 27 November in two people in England with links to travel to southern Africa. As of Tuesday (Nov 30) there have been 22 cases in England and Scotland.

The Guardian, Wed, December 1 - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...cron-variant-arrive-in-uk-and-is-it-spreading
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/first-uk-cases-of-omicron-variant-identified
So about week 47/48.

From Dec 13, 2021 - Britain reports first death with Omicron Coronavirus variant
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/britain-says-omicron-spreading-phenomenal-rate-2021-12-13/I just learned a close friend and colleague contracted SARS-Cov-2 about two week ago (based on developing COVID-19 symptoms 10 days ago), and probably Delta variant based on loss of smell and taste, and other symptoms. He received both initial vaccines earlier this year, and a booster about 2 months ago. Two of his children contracted it as well, and I believe they are vaccinated as well. The children are not as affected, and they seem to be fine.

 

[chemisttree]

Lets hope your friend’s case is mild. Scary when your sense of smell gets whacked. My daughter caught whatever variant of Covid that was around last spring at school. She had a mild case without being vaxxed.

 

[PeroK]

COVID reaches Antarctica!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59848160

 

[BillTre]

COVID reaches Antarctica!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59848160

Chilling News!

 

[Astronuc]

Looking at some numbers of Covid-19 cases at the end of the year.

New York State set yet another record for positive cases the last day of the year with 85476 new cases. About 10.3% of the total positive cases in New York State of the cumulative positive cases happened in the last 7 days of the year, going from 3,184,195 on Christmas Day (12/25) to 3,555,040 positive cases on 12/31! That is 370,845 new positive cases (some could be reinfections) in one week.

As for deaths, NY State reports 48496 deaths (~1.5% of confirmed positive cases), confirmed in a medical setting or care facility. There are another nearly 13,000 deaths occurring outside of a medical or care facility, but which are probable COVID-related deaths. The state has performed more than 88.87 million tests, enough to test the entire state population 4.55 times each. It's unknown how many people who had asymptomatic infections and were not tested, but given the amount of testing, it's probably not that great.

During the last 3 days of 2021, the cumulative death numbers:

Confirmed COVID Deaths NY State
 Ages     12/29   12/30   12/31
  90+     7,536   7,550   7,564
80 - 89  12,898  12,912  12,939
70 - 79  12,512  12,532  12,549
60 - 69   8,837   8,856   8,871
50 - 59   4,187   4,194   4,205
40 - 49   1,492   1,497   1,503
30 - 39     624     625     625
20 - 29     190     190     191
10 - 19      22      22      22
 0 -  9      18      18      18

In Washington State, as of Dec 29, the state reported

7,705,281 (pop. 2020)
  849,075 positive cases    11.0% of pop.
   45,381 hospitalization   0.59% of pop., 5.3% of positive cases
    9,853 deaths            0.13% of pop., 1.16% of pos. cases, 21.7% of hosptialized

 

[pinball1970]

Omicron (B.1.1.529) is a variant of SARS-CoV-2 that has been identified initially in COVID-19 patients in Botswana and South Africa.

Anthony Fauci claimed that while it would take weeks to judge the severity of the new Covid-19 variant Omicron, early indications suggested it was not worse than prior strains, and possibly milder.

Early studies yes

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...f-that-omicron-is-less-likely-to-damage-lungs

As has been outline previously, if you are getting 5x as many cases (as is the case in the UK) then this will still lead to significant severe cases and deaths.

 

[nsaspook]

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/12/29/world/omicron-covid-vaccine-tests

Citing a series of international studies showing milder Omicron outcomes, Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, President Biden’s chief medical adviser, said at the same news conference that “the pattern and disparity between cases and hospitalizations strongly suggest that there will be a lower hospitalization-to-case ratio when the situation becomes more clear.”

Dr. Soumya Swaminathan, the chief scientific officer for the W.H.O., said that early real-world data indicated that the link between infection numbers and hospitalizations had been “disrupted.”

I'll take the small silver lining in these numbers and trends.

 

[kyphysics]

I promise I am not paid by Eric Ding.

 

[Astronuc]

https://news.yahoo.com/virus-leaves-antibodies-may-attack-204240584.html
(Reuters) - Coronavirus leaves survivors with self-attacking antibodies

Months after recovering from SARS-CoV-2 infection, survivors have elevated levels of antibodies that can mistakenly attack their own organs and tissues, even if they had not been severely ill, according to new findings.

Among 177 healthcare workers who had recovered from confirmed Coronavirus infections contracted before the availability of vaccines, all had persistent autoantibodies, including ones that can cause chronic inflammation and injury of the joints, skin and nervous system. "We would not normally expect to see such a diverse array of autoantibodies elevated in these individuals or stay elevated for as long six months after full clinical recovery," said Susan Cheng of the Cedars-Sinai Smidt Heart Institute in Los Angeles. Patterns of elevated autoantibodies varied between men and women, the researchers reported on Thursday in the Journal of Translational Medicine .

 

[kyphysics]

https://news.yahoo.com/virus-leaves-antibodies-may-attack-204240584.html
(Reuters) - Coronavirus leaves survivors with self-attacking antibodies

Did vax status make a difference? I.e., Were those left with "self-attacking antibodies" non-vaccinated? Or, did some include vaxed too?

Asking, b/c this sounds scary! I am vaxed + boostered, but STILL don't want to get COVID because of fears of getting weird long-term effects like this...wondering if these weird things happen equally to vaxed survivors and non-vaxed survivors?

 

[pinball1970]

Did vax status make a difference? I.e., Were those left with "self-attacking antibodies" non-vaccinated? Or, did some include vaxed too?

Asking, b/c this sounds scary! I am vaxed + boostered, but STILL don't want to get COVID because of fears of getting weird long-term effects like this...wondering if these weird things happen equally to vaxed survivors and non-vaxed survivors?

looks like mainly pre vaccine?

"Among 177 healthcare workers who had recovered from confirmed Coronavirus infections contracted before the availability of vaccines"

 

[StatGuy2000]

The pathologists do have a good crack at this. Also the stat guys do adjustments based EXTRA deaths in a year by year month basis going back around 5 years. There is a biostatistics on here, pretty sure he explained this was it? @StatGuy2000

Admittedly mortality statistics is not my area of expertise. That being said, I am aware that determining cause of death is typically based on the primary medical condition that can be linked to the mortality cases. The tricky issue is when a particular patient with a serious co-morbid condition (e.g. cancer) contracts COVID-19 and then subsequently dies. It is possible that cause of death could be listed as both cancer and COVID-19.

Are there adjustments made to account for extra deaths? I'm not entirely certain about this.

 

[StatGuy2000]

https://news.yahoo.com/virus-leaves-antibodies-may-attack-204240584.html
(Reuters) - Coronavirus leaves survivors with self-attacking antibodies

I am curious if the presence of auto-antibodies after recovering from COVID-19 may provide an explanation for at least some of the cases of "long COVID" that has been reported among some people who had been infected with COVID-19.

There have been also some reports that patients who reported long COVID have experienced improvements in symptoms (often even complete cessation of symptoms) after being vaccinated. Perhaps the vaccines can somehow neutralize the self-attacking antibodies? Again, speculation on my part, but perhaps there is research to examine this?

 

[Astronuc]

There have been also some reports that patients who reported long COVID have experienced improvements in symptoms (often even complete cessation of symptoms) after being vaccinated. Perhaps the vaccines can somehow neutralize the self-attacking antibodies? Again, speculation on my part, but perhaps there is research to examine this?

I've read of such reports. There is ongoing research into the effects of Long COVID (because there are so many people with the condition) and effect of vaccines on Long COVID.

23 November 2021 - Do vaccines protect against long COVID? What the data say
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03495-2

Can Vaccination Protect You From Long COVID?
https://www.everydayhealth.com/coronavirus/can-covid-19-vaccines-protect-you-from-long-covid/

Anecdotal reports that some so-called long haulers feel better after getting the COVID-19 vaccines have sparked a new line of research, as scientists explore whether immunization can treat — or even prevent — long COVID.

Iwasaki is currently a principal investigator of the Yale COVID Recovery Study, an ongoing project designed to measure changes in immune response and long COVID symptoms before and after COVID-19 vaccination. The research includes all three COVID-19 vaccines available in the United States: Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna, and Johnson & Johnson’s Janssen.

https://www.nbcconnecticut.com/news...accine-effects-on-covid-long-haulers/2668440/
https://www.yalemedicine.org/news/vaccines-long-covid

https://whyy.org/articles/can-the-vaccine-improve-persistent-symptoms-for-covid-long-haulers/
https://www.npr.org/sections/health...-relief-vaccines-help-some-covid-long-haulers

Edit/update: NIH launches new initiative to study “Long COVID”
https://www.nih.gov/about-nih/who-w.../nih-launches-new-initiative-study-long-covid

NIH builds large nationwide study population of tens of thousands to support research on long-term effects of COVID-19
https://www.nih.gov/news-events/new...s-support-research-long-term-effects-covid-19

 

[pinball1970]

Admittedly mortality statistics is not my area of expertise. That being said, I am aware that determining cause of death is typically based on the primary medical condition that can be linked to the mortality cases. The tricky issue is when a particular patient with a serious co-morbid condition (e.g. cancer) contracts COVID-19 and then subsequently dies. It is possible that cause of death could be listed as both cancer and COVID-19.

Are there adjustments made to account for extra deaths? I'm not entirely certain about this.

This kind of approach. 29 countries. The methods are too technical for me
NZ does well though, I understood that much!

https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n1137

 

[pinball1970]

As an aside regarding Omicron, a few colleagues had COVID19 over Xmas. In their 30s jabbed and boosted.
Colleague one said it was like a cold, runny nose and sore throat. No headache, fever, aches and she did not feel ill as such.
Colleague two felt bad for 72 hours then ok. Mild flu.
Anecdotal.
Today our PM has given instructions to frontline workers in terms of testing BUT No lock down (yet) BBC briefing today at 6.00pm.
218,000 cases in 24 hours with 54 deaths.
Thursday is usually the highest for cases, numbers, hospital and deaths.
Usually.

 

[pinball1970]

Well in my case having the Pfizer shot gave me a renewed long Covid , just a bit smaller and shorter and with different symptoms than the one I had after the real infection so I guess the outcomes vary.

Did you read the paper Artis?

 

[artis]

Did you read the paper Artis?

Which of them all? I wasn't saying what I said based on a paper I was just reading the posts of vaccines curing long Covid from currently "anecdotal" evidence and just wrote down my own "anecdotal" evidence. But you know that story already since we have talked about it here.
But please can you refer me to the paper you had in mind , the particular one?

 

[pinball1970]

Which of them all? I wasn't saying what I said based on a paper I was just reading the posts of vaccines curing long Covid from currently "anecdotal" evidence and just wrote down my own "anecdotal" evidence. But you know that story already since we have talked about it here.
But please can you refer me to the paper you had in mind , the particular one?

These on how they calculate excess deaths.

https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n1137

https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid

This article on long COVID19 and auto immune antibodies

https://news.yahoo.com/virus-leaves-antibodies-may-attack-204240584.html

 

[Astronuc]

The Omicron variant may not be attacking the lungs as severely as Delta or other variants, but it apparently is still making some people (those with other illnesses/diseases) quite ill, and some potentially fatally so.

There were 5,495 people hospitalized with COVID-19 in New York City, as of Monday, official statistics show — four times the amount from two weeks ago and higher than any point since May 2020.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/me...-a-different-way-an-er-doctor-says/ar-AASsrPq
I can't readily find numbers for the rest of the state. In the published data, since the beginning of 2022, New York State has reported deaths in lowest age groups (0-9, 10-19, 20-23), which was rare during the last two years. It remains to be seen if the mortality of children, youth and young adults has increased this month.

Elsewhere, Mucio Kit Delgado, assistant professor in Emergency Medicine at Penn Presbyterian Medical Center emergency department, said on Twitter on Monday that he had seen a "strikingly consistent pattern" in symptoms based on vaccination status.

Delgado said that he "hardly saw anyone who had gotten a booster because if they caught COVID-19 they're likely at home doing fine or having regular cold/flu-like symptoms."

Meanwhile, when people were vaccinated but not boosted, he said he found many patients were "wiped out, dehydrated and febrile." Delgado said that people who were older than 55 or had other medical problems were often admitted overnight for intravenous fluids and "supportive care", but usually went home within a day or two.

Finally, Delgado said that in his experience, unvaccinated people were "the folks that get sick and had to be hospitalized because they need oxygen." "Some even younger than me," he said.

So, get vaccinated and boosted!

 

[Ygggdrasil]

I can't readily find numbers for the rest of the state.

Here's the CDC data for new hospital admissions in New York state, which shows the state is currently experiencing the highest levels of patients with COVID-19 (since Aug 2020):

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#new-hospital-admissions

In the published data, since the beginning of 2022, New York State has reported deaths in lowest age groups (0-9, 10-19, 20-23), which was rare during the last two years. It remains to be seen if the mortality of children, youth and young adults has increased this month.

CDC mortality data (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#demographicsovertime) says there is a potential six week delay in reporting, so we may have to wait to get reliable estimates on the mortality of the current Omicron wave. The NY state hospitalization data above, however, shows an increase in hospitalizations for ages 0-17, which was not observed during the wave last winter.

 

[Astronuc]

Here's the CDC data for new hospital admissions in New York state, which shows the state is currently experiencing the highest levels of patients with COVID-19 (since Aug 2020):

I found the hopitalization data for NYS, but not by age group.
https://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/daily-hospitalization-summary
As of yesterday, there were 10,411 Covid patients hospitalized, with 5,495 in NY City (52.8% of state total), the hardest hit area. So I was premature in my previous post, I could find the numbers, but not by age group.

For mortality - https://health.data.ny.gov/Health/New-York-State-Statewide-COVID-19-Fatalities-by-Ag/du97-svf7/data - but that is just those died under some kind of medical/patient/elder care. There is nearly 13,000 others who died outside of a medical or care facility that aren't included in the statistics.

 Fatalities (Cumulative values) ascribed to COVID (SARS-Cov-2)
Age group   12/01  12/31  12/03
 30 to 39    590    625    630
 20 to 29    177    191    195
 10 to 19     17     22     24
  0 to  9     17     18     19

In early December, the lowest three age groups were at 17, 17, 177 until 12/06, when someone in the 10-19 age group died. Toward late September, the mortality rate increased. And the rates increased further during the first 3 days of January. Particularly in the 0-9 and 10-19 age groups. While young folk are less vulnerable, they are still vulnerable, especially if unvaccinated, which was the case for the youngest age groups until recently, when vaccines were authorized/approved for 5-11.

 

[chemisttree]

Artis seems on point to me.

 

[pinball1970]

Artis seems on point to me.

You can 'catch covid' with the Vaccines, that's not the issue.
Long COVID19, severe cases and deaths are reduced vaccinated in every age group.