Ebola: 85% Mortality Rate & Mean of 100000 Contractors

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    Ebola Mean
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The discussion revolves around the Ebola virus and its associated mortality rate, specifically focusing on calculating the expected number of deaths among a hypothetical group of 100,000 individuals who contract the virus.

Discussion Character

  • Mathematical reasoning

Approaches and Questions Raised

  • Participants explore the calculation of the mean number of deaths based on the given mortality rate of 85%. There is some uncertainty about the interpretation of the mean and expected value.

Discussion Status

Participants are actively engaging with the problem, with some expressing confidence in their calculations while others seek clarification on the concept of expected value. There is a mix of interpretations regarding the application of the mortality rate to the population size.

Contextual Notes

Some participants question the assumptions underlying the calculation, particularly the interpretation of the mortality rate and its application to the specified group size.

James905
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the deadly Ebola virus kills 85% of those who contract it. Of the next 100000 people who contract it, what is the mean number who will die?
 
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And your thoughts on the matter are___________?
 
I'm thinking it's:

85% of 100 000 which is 85 000 but I'm not really sure of that
 
Why not?
 
The mean is the "expected value". You are told that 85% die. Of 1000000 people, how many would you expect to die?
 
if it's 85% of 100 000 then 85 000 will die
 

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