News Is Ebola's Exponential Spread Uncontainable?

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Ebola is currently experiencing exponential growth in new infections, raising concerns about containment efforts. With an estimated 125 new cases daily, many believe the actual numbers are underreported, particularly in West Africa. The outbreak remains largely confined to this region, but increased mobility poses risks of spreading to larger cities, which could exacerbate the situation. There is speculation that the outbreak could persist for years unless a vaccine or effective treatment is developed. Quarantine measures are seen as the best defense against further spread, especially if the virus reaches densely populated areas.
  • #121
Dr. Martin Salia died of the disease shortly after 4 a.m., Nebraska Medical Center spokesman Taylor Wilson said.
http://news.yahoo.com/nebraska-hospital-surgeon-ebola-died-134817996.html
Salia, 44, had advanced symptoms when he arrived at the hospital Saturday, including kidney and respiratory failure, the hospital said in a statement. He was placed on dialysis, a ventilator and given several medications to support his organ systems.

Salia was given the experimental drug ZMapp on Saturday. He also received a plasma transfusion from an Ebola survivor — a treatment that is believed to provide antibodies to fight the virus.
Early detection and treatment, with drugs like ZMapp, seem to be the key to survival.
 
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  • #122
one of the problems within the regions affected is how families and friends deal with the dead such as close physical contact after death to see off the dead when the body is still infectious. the people trying to reduce the spread have been educating the regions about the problem and in the more populous regions the public has been abiding by the new rules of no contact after death which according to the WHO has shown a marked drop in infections.But this does not include the more remote regions because there are too few health care workers to spread out that widely.

on another note I really have to question why someone would be pressure washing an infectious vehicle when the virus is spread by fluid contact wouldn't adding all the water simply multiply the infectious material?
 
  • #123
dragoneyes001 said:
on another note I really have to question why someone would be pressure washing an infectious vehicle when the virus is spread by fluid contact wouldn't adding all the water simply multiply the infectious material?
No, the virus can't multiply outside of a host.
 
  • #124
lisab said:
No, the virus can't multiply outside of a host.

but diluting blood or other fluids would make contact to them easier wouldn't it?

the term multiply was in error. i should have said increased or in some way carried with the water.

I'm just asking if something like flash drying might be a better way of cleaning infectious items.
 
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  • #125
dragoneyes001 said:
but diluting blood or other fluids would make contact to them easier wouldn't it?

the term multiply was in error. i should have said increased or in some way carried with the water.

I'm just asking if something like flash drying might be a better way of cleaning infectious items.
A while back, I think someone asked how long the Ebola virus can remain infectious once it's outside the body. There wasn't a clear answer. Perhaps it's not known yet, or perhaps there many different strains and not all have been tested.

Drying...that's interesting. My background isn't biology, so I can't answer that. I have read in several places that bleach works very well against the Ebola virus.
 
  • #126
Some infected people are carrying the disease further afield.

Mali: New Ebola case confirmed, 2 more suspected
http://news.yahoo.com/mali-ebola-case-confirmed-2-more-suspected-142912285.html
BAMAKO, Mali (AP) — Mali on Saturday confirmed a new case of Ebola and said two more suspected patients are being tested, raising concern about a further spread of the disease which has already killed at least five people in the country.
. . . .
Mali officials are monitoring 310 people to limit the spread of the disease, said the statement.
Mali's five confirmed Ebola deaths are linked to a 70-year-old imam who was brought to the capital, Bamako, from Guinea, where the regional Ebola epidemic first began.
Mali records new Ebola case, linked to dead nurse
http://news.yahoo.com/mali-records-ebola-case-linked-dead-nurse-140851943.html
The nurse contracted the disease after treating an imam from neighboring Guinea, who died after being incorrectly diagnosed with kidney problems. This allowed Ebola to spread to five other people in the West African nation's second outbreak.
Doctor who treated source of second Mali Ebola outbreak dies
http://news.yahoo.com/doctor-treated-source-second-mali-ebola-outbreak-dies-065008074.html
BAMAKO (Reuters) - A doctor in Mali who treated the patient that sparked a second wave of Ebola in the West African country has died, the government said in a statement on state-owned television on Thursday.
The government said the death of the doctor, whose name was not released, brought the total number of those who have died of Ebola in Mali to five. Before Thursday's announcement, the World Health Organization was already reporting five Ebola deaths in Mali, while medical charity Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF) put the figure at seven.
 
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  • #127
Ebola cases near 16,000, Sierra Leone to overtake Liberia soon with most cases: WHO
http://news.yahoo.com/ebola-cases-near-16-000-sierra-leone-overtake-171705005.html
GENEVA (Reuters) - The death toll in the world's worst Ebola epidemic has risen to 5,689 out of 15,935 cases reported in eight countries by Nov. 23, the World Health Organization said on Wednesday.

Almost all cases and all but 15 deaths have been in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia - the three hardest-hit countries, which reported 600 new cases in the past week, the WHO said in its latest update.
 
  • #128
Officials designate 35 hospitals for Ebola care
http://news.yahoo.com/officials-designate-35-hospitals-ebola-care-171538649.html
Sierra Leone doctor who got Ebola is not relenting
http://news.yahoo.com/sierra-leone-doctor-got-ebola-not-relenting-155526368.html
Ebola response too slow: Doctors Without Borders
http://news.yahoo.com/revises-down-liberia-ebola-death-toll-3-145-102222517.html

The number of people infected with Ebola has passed, 17,000, according to data published Tuesday by the World Health Organization. Of those, more than 6,000 have died. Emphasizing the severity of the outbreak, Sierra Leone announced that another doctor, its 10th, has tested positive for Ebola.
That's about an increase of 1000 in 9 days, or slightly more than 100/day.
 
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  • #130
The latest WHO stituation report is here:
http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/145679/1/roadmapsitrep_17Dec2014_eng.pdf

It is encouraging.
For Sierra Leone, it shows a modest drop in new cases for two weeks in a row.
For Liberia, it shows activity that is a fraction of what it had been in September.
No significant change in Guinea for the past few months - but at least it's not growing exponentially or otherwise.
 
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  • #132
Ebola is still taking a toll.

Ebola-hit UK nurse in critical condition
http://news.yahoo.com/ebola-hit-uk-nurse-critical-condition-hospital-143449374.html
Cafferkey, who was working with the charity Save the Children in Sierra Leone, had agreed to have blood plasma treatment and take an experimental anti-viral drug.

However, they were not able to give her ZMapp, the drug successfully used to treat fellow British volunteer nurse William Pooley, because global supplies had run out.

Yet some have an optimistic outlook
Ebola fight remains tough but may be won this year: UN mission chief
http://news.yahoo.com/ebola-fight-remains-tough-may-won-un-mission-072035492.html
The outbreak, first identified in Guinea's remote southeast in early 2014, has struck six West African nations, with Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia bearing the brunt of the 20,000 infections and nearly 8,000 dead.

Faced with criticism the world was not doing enough, U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon set up the U.N. Ebola Emergency Response (UNMEER) mission in September to coordinate global efforts.
I think the world is doing a lot on many fronts. It's not just Ebola, but other diseases like polio, etc, as well as food, fresh/clean water, sanitation, etc.
 
  • #134
Mali just declared itself Ebola-free.

Number of new Ebola cases declining as disease evolves
http://news.yahoo.com/number-of-ebola-cases-declining-as-disease-evolves--un-224123785.htmlHowever,
the deadly Ebola virus is changing, and new genetic mutations that have arisen in the past four decades could thwart the experimental drugs that some pharmaceutical companies are developing, researchers said Tuesday.
https://www.yahoo.com/health/ebola-virus-changes-over-time-may-thwart-drugs-108650323442.html
 
  • #136
  • #138
Experimental Ebola Vaccine Could Stop Virus in West Africa
https://www.yahoo.com/health/experimental-ebola-vaccine-could-stop-virus-in-125513143352.html

Looks like there is a successful vaccine for (against) Ebola!

An experimental vaccine tested on thousands of people in Guinea exposed to Ebola seems to work and might help shut down the ongoing epidemic in West Africa, according to interim results from a study published Friday.
New Ebola Vaccine Has '100 Percent' Effectiveness In Early Results
http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-...as-100-percent-effectiveness-in-early-results
 
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  • #139
Ebola is persistent - British Nurse in Isolation After Ebola Symptoms Resurface 10 Months After She First Fell Ill

The 2014 Ebola epidemic, which impacted several countries in West Africa and even surfaced in the U.S., was the largest in history, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The epidemic killed more than 11,200 people in West Africa.

While it’s unusual for Ebola to resurface in a patient, it has happened in the recent past. Ebola survivor Ian Crozier, MD, made headlines in May after one of his eyes changed color two months after he recovered from the disease. Upon examination, doctors discovered that his eye was “teeming” with Ebola.
Reminds me of Andromeda Strain - it rapidly adapts.Doctor Who Survived Ebola Describes Disease's Aftermath on the Body
http://news.yahoo.com/doctor-survived-ebola-describes-diseases-aftermath-body-064300740.html
 
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  • #141
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/16/us-health-ebola-relapse-idUSKCN0S91ZN20151016

The case of Pauline Cafferkey, the first person known to have recovered from Ebola and then suffer an apparently life-threatening relapse, is taking scientists into uncharted territory.

The Scottish nurse's critically ill situation, described as "staggering" by one British virologist, signals just how complex and formidable a foe the Ebola virus may turn out to be now that scientists have the chance to study its survivors.
...
"Even if you don't have the virus in your bloodstream it can be hiding out," said Messaoudi. "And we need to be aware of that because it's setting up the stage for potentially new outbreaks."

For now, she said, the key message amid all the unknowns is "it's not over when we think it's over."
 
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  • #142
nsaspook said:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/16/us-health-ebola-relapse-idUSKCN0S91ZN20151016

That's horrible, and terrifying. But I wonder why it took a Westerner relapsing to get noticed? Are relapses not happening to African survivors?
 
  • #143
Assuming that the nurse is contagious again, do the protocols need to change? The ones who have recovered have been released back into the general public. But, since they can relapse, should they be considered a potential public danger for the rest of their life?
 
  • #145
WHO declares Ebola outbreak over as Liberia gets all-clear
http://news.yahoo.com/declares-worst-ever-ebola-outbreak-over-092344314.html

Monrovia (AFP) - The world breathed a sigh of relief Thursday as a two-year Ebola epidemic that killed 11,000 and triggered a global health alert was declared over, with Liberia the last country to get the all-clear.

The deadliest outbreak in the history of the feared tropical virus wrecked the economies and health systems of the three worst-hit west African nations after it emerged in southern Guinea in December 2013
 
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  • #147
Yes - it appears that the Ebola virus (or viruses) are lurking in the environment.

Ebola virus: New case emerges in Sierra Leone
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-35320363

Ebola is back … or never left
http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/01/ebola-back-or-never-left
Just hours after the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the Ebola outbreak in West Africa over on Thursday, Sierra Leone reported a new case of the disease to WHO. A 22-year-old woman, who had died earlier in the week, had tested positive for the virus. . . .

The details of the case are troubling. The young woman was a student in Lunsar, a town in the district of Port Loko, says Christopher Dye of WHO. Around Christmas she traveled from there to Kambia district, closer to the border with Guinea, and stayed there until 6 January. “We suspect that was the time of onset of the illness,” Dye says. “Having become ill she decided to go home, and her family home is in Tonkalili.” The young woman went to a hospital but was not recognized as an Ebola case. “She got progressively worse and died. The process of preparing her body for burial and the burial itself were done unsafely,” Dye says. “That is of course not what we would have liked to have seen happen in light of all the Ebola cases we had.”
. . . .
 
  • #148

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