Expected values: three fair coins

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around calculating the expected value of a random variable defined as the cube of the number of heads resulting from flipping three fair coins. Participants explore the correct formulation of the problem, including the probabilities associated with different outcomes.

Discussion Character

  • Technical explanation
  • Mathematical reasoning
  • Debate/contested

Main Points Raised

  • One participant proposes that the expected value can be computed using the formula E(X) = $$xiP(X=xi)$$ with X defined as the cube of the number of heads.
  • Another participant corrects the first by clarifying that the values for X should be 1, 8, and 27 for 1, 2, and 3 heads respectively, and questions the probability formulation used.
  • A later reply challenges the assumption that the probability of getting one head is $$\frac{1}{2}$$, suggesting it may instead represent the probability of getting at least one head, and questions why the probabilities are not calculated as $$\frac{1}{2^3}$$ for all cases.
  • Another participant provides the probabilities for getting 0, 1, 2, or 3 heads based on binomial coefficients, indicating a different approach to calculating the expected value.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express differing views on the correct formulation of probabilities and the expected value calculation. There is no consensus on the correct approach, with multiple competing views remaining.

Contextual Notes

Participants have not fully resolved the assumptions regarding the probabilities of different outcomes, and there is ambiguity in the definitions used for calculating expected values.

oyth94
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Suppose you roll three fair coins, and let X be the cube of the number of heads
showing. Compute E(X)

I started this question with X=xi where i = 1,2,3 since there are 3 fair coins and there are either 1 2 or 3 heads that will show up. then it says that X will be the cube of the number of heads so I put
P(getting heads) = (1/2)^(i^3)
So E(X) = $$xiP(X=xi)$$ = $$i(1/2)^(i^3)$$ summation from i=1 to 3..
am i on the right track??
 
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Re: expected values: three fair coins

oyth94 said:
Suppose you roll three fair coins, and let X be the cube of the number of heads
showing. Compute E(X)

I started this question with X=xi where i = 1,2,3 since there are 3 fair coins and there are either 1 2 or 3 heads that will show up. then it says that X will be the cube of the number of heads so I put
P(getting heads) = (1/2)^(i^3)
So E(X) = $$xiP(X=xi)$$ = $$i(1/2)^(i^3)$$ summation from i=1 to 3..
am i on the right track??

Not quite (and you mean flip 3 fair coins...not roll... XD); since $X$ represents the cube of the number of heads, you instead want $x_1=1^3=1$, $x_2=2^3=8$ and $x_3=3^3=27$. Then $\mathbb{P}(X=x_i)$ would represent the probability of getting 1, 2, or 3 heads; in this case, we would have $\mathbb{P}(X=x_i)=\dfrac{1}{2^i}$, $i=1,2,3$. Thus,
\[E[X]=\sum_{i=1}^3 x_i\mathbb{P}(X=x_i)=\ldots\]

I hope this makes sense!
 
Re: expected values: three fair coins

Chris L T521 said:
Not quite (and you mean flip 3 fair coins...not roll... XD); since $X$ represents the cube of the number of heads, you instead want $x_1=1^3=1$, $x_2=2^3=8$ and $x_3=3^3=27$. Then $\mathbb{P}(X=x_i)$ would represent the probability of getting 1, 2, or 3 heads; in this case, we would have $\mathbb{P}(X=x_i)=\dfrac{1}{2^i}$, $i=1,2,3$. Thus,
\[E[X]=\sum_{i=1}^3 x_i\mathbb{P}(X=x_i)=\ldots\]

I hope this makes sense!

Oh I see what you did! Thank you so much!
 
Re: expected values: three fair coins

Chris L T521 said:
$\mathbb{P}(X=x_i)=\dfrac{1}{2^i}$, $i=1,2,3$. Thus,
\[E[X]=\sum_{i=1}^3 x_i\mathbb{P}(X=x_i)=\ldots\]
i have a doubt(probably elementary),
you have assumed probability of getting one head is $$\frac{1}{2}$$.But i think it is the probability to get at least one head ,doesn't that include cases of $$2$$ or $$3$$ heads and why isn't the probability $$\frac{1}{2^3}$$ for all cases
(i mean why aren't we taking exact probability here)
 
Re: expected values: three fair coins

mathworker said:
i have a doubt(probably elementary),
you have assumed probability of getting one head is $$\frac{1}{2}$$.But i think it is the probability to get at least one head ,doesn't that include cases of $$2$$ or $$3$$ heads and why isn't the probability $$\frac{1}{2^3}$$ for all cases
(i mean why aren't we taking exact probability here)

The probability to have k heads in 3 trials is $\displaystyle \frac{\binom{3}{k}}{8}$, so that...

$P\{k=0\} = \frac{1}{8}$

$P\{k=1\} = \frac{3}{8}$

$P\{k=2\} = \frac{3}{8}$

$P\{k=3\} = \frac{1}{8}$

Kind regards

$\chi$ $\sigma$
 
got it,changing the positions we could get 3 possibilities of eight , thank you
 

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