Art said:
But some of the most unlikely outcomes (from our perspective) would appear miraculous. If all possible outcomes actually happen then it follows that highly unlikely results should be as common as expected results as the highly unusual should be mixed equally with the usual.
If the outcome is
possible, why would it be "miraculous?" Of course, what one considers a miracle depends on perspective as well. As long as it doesn't violate the physical bounds, which would make it
impossible rather than possible, then there would be nothing miraculous about it happening.
For example there tends to be very few survivors from a plane crash. Surviving is a possibility so in the multiverse, assuming each universe is of equal merit, there must be a branch of reality where all the passengers survive and this possibility should have equal weight to none surviving yet we never see the result where all the passengers survive and so it seems (again based on our expectations) all of the highly unlikely outcomes end up in someone else's universe. So why not in ours?
Okay, here's the way I'm understanding it, which might help (and I'll hope ST will jump in if I'm way off base). The
possibility of survival is dependent on all the other events leading up to it, which I presume is why this is a complex mathematical model to develop. Think of it as a series of if-then statements. The plane may crash, or it might not crash. If it does crash, then it might explode on impact, or it might not. If it explodes on impact, there might be hot enough temperatures to fry everyone inside (at which point survivors becomes an impossible outcome) or it might not (survivors is a possible outcome). If it doesn't, then the cabin might fill with toxic smoke, or it might not. If it does, for every passenger still alive (dependent upon where they were seated...and any of those passengers may or may not have gotten that first class upgrade to put them in the ill-fated seat...) they may or may not be able to hold their breath long enough to get to the exit, that exit may or may not be blocked, etc.
So, it wouldn't just be, plane crashes and any number of passengers survive, but rather that the entire chain of events that allows all the passengers to survive must occur, which is far less likely to occur than a 50/50 survive or not survive outcome. At each bifurcation, only the
possible next steps can occur, and you can't just skip a step, because that would violate the physical rules. Having to go through every small step prevents an impossible outcome from happening, thus no miracles.
Just to try to make the picture a bit clearer, another way to look at it would be that indeed, there ARE rare occurrences of a plane crashing and everyone surviving, because all the other events that are part of that crash make it possible for everyone to survive...there was enough time to dump fuel, a long flat landing area, a highly skilled pilot, a skilled flight crew and passengers who all follow instructions to prepare for the crash, and emergency responders contacted as soon as the pilot knows they're in trouble, and get through all the traffic in time to be ready as soon as the plane hits the ground.
It's sort of like winning the lottery. The probability that it will happen for anyone person buying a ticket is low, but someone does win, and it could be someone buying their first lottery ticket ever, while someone else playing every week their entire life may never win anything. There's nothing that says that everyone who plays gets an equal amount of wins and loses, even if their chance of winning is all the same.