Exponential decay, but results reach 0

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SUMMARY

This discussion centers on the application of exponential decay models to datasets where the dependent variable (y) reaches zero. The user questions the validity of using an exponential curve of best fit for their data points (x = 0,1,2,3; y = 4, 2, 1, 0), as traditional exponential decay does not mathematically reach zero. Contributors clarify that while exponential decay is a suitable model for large datasets, it may not accurately represent scenarios with low counts, such as the decay of a small number of nuclei. They suggest considering alternative trendlines, such as linear regression, for datasets that include zero values.

PREREQUISITES
  • Understanding of exponential decay and its mathematical properties
  • Familiarity with statistical trendline analysis
  • Knowledge of data visualization techniques in graphing
  • Basic concepts of probability and stochastic processes
NEXT STEPS
  • Research "Linear regression analysis" for datasets that include zero values
  • Study "Exponential decay models in low-count scenarios" to understand limitations
  • Explore "Statistical significance in trendline selection" for better data representation
  • Learn about "Averaging results in repeated trials" to improve data accuracy
USEFUL FOR

Students, data analysts, and researchers involved in statistical modeling, particularly those working with datasets that exhibit decay patterns or include zero values.

priceofcarrot
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So I have a situation where the results in a table (x and y), where y reaches 0. According to my understanding, mathematically, exponential decay can never reach 0, right?

So does that mean that I can't use an exponential curve of best fit with the results in my table (x = 0,1,2,3), (y = 4, 2, 1, 0) because y eventually equals 0?


My graph looks very similar to exponential decay, and my equation of best fit is an equation that would fit exponential decay, but the results don't exactly.


So as far as including a curve or line of best fit, how should I choose one?

thanks
 
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priceofcarrot said:
So I have a situation where the results in a table (x and y), where y reaches 0. According to my understanding, mathematically, exponential decay can never reach 0, right?

So does that mean that I can't use an exponential curve of best fit with the results in my table (x = 0,1,2,3), (y = 4, 2, 1, 0) because y eventually equals 0?


My graph looks very similar to exponential decay, and my equation of best fit is an equation that would fit exponential decay, but the results don't exactly.


So as far as including a curve or line of best fit, how should I choose one?

thanks

If there were more significant figures in your y measurements, you might see that the final zero is not really zero...:wink:
 
What? *Head explodes*

It's a real life scenario where you have coins, and you keep on removing the coins that land tails up. So I ended up getting 0. Do you mean something else?
 
If the y values are, indeed, integers, it cannot be an exponential.
 
That's what confuses me then. The point of the exercise is that the graph and the numbers are supposed to look similar to exponential decay (so I'm concerned that marks will be taken off if I don't use an exponential curve or line of best fit, but I can't unless I change 0, which would then mean that I'm using false data), but I can't use a curve or line of best fit that is exponential because the actual data reaches 0.

Should I just use a linear trendline then? Is it mathematically incorrect to use different types of trendlines for different types of data?
 
priceofcarrot said:
What? *Head explodes*

It's a real life scenario where you have coins, and you keep on removing the coins that land tails up. So I ended up getting 0. Do you mean something else?

This is a statistical situation, and you have only included one trial. You need to consider the results of repeating this test over and over again, say 1000 times. Then average the results from all the tests. Then plot a graph of the averaged results.
 
priceofcarrot said:

Homework Statement


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The Attempt at a Solution


So I have a situation where the results in a table (x and y), where y reaches 0. According to my understanding, mathematically, exponential decay can never reach 0, right?

So does that mean that I can't use an exponential curve of best fit with the results in my table (x = 0,1,2,3), (y = 4, 2, 1, 0) because y eventually equals 0?My graph looks very similar to exponential decay, and my equation of best fit is an equation that would fit exponential decay, but the results don't exactly.So as far as including a curve or line of best fit, how should I choose one?

thanks

You must be aware that the exponential decay equation fails to describe the behaviour of the radioactive sample when the number of nuclei is low. It's only when there are a large number of nuclei left to decay that the equation will give you an accurate estimate of the behaviour. In real life, the radioactivity of a sample can, and does, decrease to exactly zero within a finite time.

In your case, if you're starting with exactly 4 nuclei, the standard decay equation will not be a good descriptor. However, in all likelihood, you can make the simplifying assumption that it does, indeed, apply. In which case, your final time point will actually have the value ½ rather than zero. Half here actually has the physical meaning that the probability of a single nucleus remaining undecayed at that time point is 50%. Remember that decay is fundamentally a random process, and at low levels, probability and stochasticity (randomness, in a very loose sense) become important.
 
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