Exponential distribution, memory

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Discussion Overview

The discussion centers on the concept of memorylessness in probability distributions, specifically comparing the exponential distribution to the normal distribution. Participants explore the implications of memorylessness and seek to clarify why only the exponential distribution possesses this property.

Discussion Character

  • Conceptual clarification, Debate/contested

Main Points Raised

  • One participant questions the understanding of memorylessness, suggesting that if random numbers from an exponential distribution are independent of previously chosen numbers, the same should apply to the normal distribution.
  • Another participant clarifies that memorylessness for the exponential distribution means that the conditional distribution of the variable given it exceeds a certain value is the same as the original distribution, which does not hold for the normal distribution.
  • A further explanation is provided that the memoryless property can be expressed mathematically, indicating that for positive numbers s and t, the probability relation holds true only for the exponential distribution.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants do not reach a consensus, as there is a fundamental disagreement regarding the interpretation of memorylessness and its applicability to different distributions.

Contextual Notes

The discussion highlights the specific conditions under which the memoryless property applies, indicating that the normal distribution's ability to take on negative values may contribute to its lack of memorylessness.

oneamp
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I am told that an exponential distribution is memoryless. But why aren't other distributions, such as the normal distribution, also memoryless? If I pick a random number from an exponential distribution, it is not effected by previously chosen random numbers. But isn't that also the case for a normal distribution, for example?

What do I misunderstand?

Thank you
 
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I think when people say the exponential distribution is memoryless, they mean that, for any exponentially distributed random variable [itex]X[/itex], the distribution of [itex]X-x[/itex] conditional on the event [itex]\{X\geq x\}[/itex] is the same as the distribution of [itex]X[/itex].

It's easy to check that that the normal distribution (or, in fact, anything that can take on negative values) can't satisfy the above property.
 
The memory less notion refers to the fact that for any positive numbers s and t

[tex] P(X > s + t | X > t) = P(X > s)[/tex]

It can be shown that this property gives the exponential distribution as the unique continuous distribution with the property.
 
Thank you
 

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