Global Heat Records: August 2009 and June-August 2009

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Discussion Overview

The discussion centers around global temperature records for August 2009 and the June-August 2009 period, examining the implications of these records in the context of climate trends, particularly in relation to El Niño events. Participants explore various temperature datasets and their interpretations, as well as the significance of these records in understanding climate patterns.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory
  • Technical explanation
  • Debate/contested
  • Conceptual clarification

Main Points Raised

  • Some participants note that August 2009 was the second warmest on record, with significant deviations from the 20th-century average.
  • Others highlight discrepancies in temperature measurements between different datasets, such as RSS and UAH, suggesting that they measure different aspects of temperature (e.g., surface vs. lower troposphere).
  • A participant mentions that while August 1998 and August 2009 appear similar in temperature data, caution is advised in drawing conclusions from such comparisons due to potential sample size issues.
  • There is a discussion about the relevance of monthly temperature records versus longer-term trends, with some arguing that individual months do not provide conclusive evidence of climate change.
  • Participants express interest in the ongoing El Niño phenomenon and its potential impacts on climate, particularly in relation to drought conditions in Australia.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants generally agree on the importance of examining long-term trends rather than focusing solely on individual monthly records. However, there are competing views regarding the interpretation of temperature data and the implications of recent records, indicating that the discussion remains unresolved.

Contextual Notes

Participants note the complexities involved in comparing different temperature datasets, including calibration issues and the effects of satellite data processing. There is also mention of uncertainties associated with the measurements, particularly regarding the influence of El Niño and La Niña cycles.

Who May Find This Useful

This discussion may be of interest to those studying climate science, meteorology, or environmental policy, as well as individuals concerned about the implications of temperature records on climate trends and weather patterns.

  • #31
The following paper provides lots of details

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/sst/papers/SEA.temps08.pdf

Note that if the ship–buoy bias were also adjusted with
respect to the ships, then the most recent years would
be warmer, because the ship–buoy difference tends to
be positive and because of the increasing number of
buoy observations. However, as discussed above, these
differences are well within the 95% confidence limits.

The rankings of the
warmest 10 yr are similar for both, with 2005 the warmest
for both followed by 1998, a year with a strong warm
ENSO episode (Table 6).

Rank Merged.v2 Merged.v3
1 2005 0.41 2005 0.40
2 1998 0.38 1998 0.37
3 2002 0.36 2003 0.36
4 2003 0.36 2002 0.35
5 2006 0.35 2006 0.33
6 2004 0.34 2004 0.32
7 2001 0.30 2001 0.29
8 1997 0.27 1997 0.25
9 1999 0.20 1995 0.18
10 1995 0.19 1999 0.17

So, the 10 warmest years have "cooled off" under v3, with the exception of 2002, which remained the same. But, if they adjusted the ship-buoy data were adjusted for ships, then they would be warmer.

Evo; About satellite data:

That is because
both ERSST.v3 and OI.v2 incorporate bias-adjusted
satellite data.

The ERSST.v3 is improved by explicitly including
bias-adjusted satellite infrared SST estimates.
 
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  • #32
Evo said:
No, it's not. You apparently misread what I posted, which was that the NCDC stopped using satellite data in July 2009 in their "State of the climate". If you retracted this, I apologize, but you posted so prolifically trying to explain yourself that I honestly can't find it. :-p

Evo, I am sorry if this is too hard to follow, but it is all in the post to which you are replying, and I stand by that post, [post=2359652]msg #18[/post] in the thread, to explain precisely where the NCDC is continuing to use the satellite data, and where it has stopped using it.

Furthermore, you have edited my post, without any notice to me or indication of why you did so. In the process you have removed all the formatting which is intended to make it easy to navigate and locate information. The links are all gone, and quoting indications, and so on. It's a mess. I don't know what else you have changed and it is now almost impossible to follow.

But here is again for you, step by step, concerning the State of the Climate reports.
  • The NCDC no longer uses satellite data for ranking and long term trends, in the initial parts of the report. The impact of this on trends is negligible.
  • The NCDC continues to use satellite data in the report, in particular for the ENSO outlook.
  • Where they use ERSST they are using version 3b, with no satellite data. Where they use the OISST, satellite data is still included.
  • The difference between these datasets and the reasons for having two sets, are explained in the links provided and which you have removed in your edit.

I write prolifically to give this detail, and avoid the simple "yes it is"/"no it isn't" exchange.

You were also incorrect (at the end of [post=2356463]msg #13[/post]) as to WHY this change was made.

Felicitations -- sylas
 

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