What is meant by 'Earth's surface temperature'?

AI Thread Summary
The term "Earth's surface temperature" can be misleading, as it often refers to air temperature measured several feet above the ground rather than the actual surface temperature. Land surface temperature is measured by satellites, which capture the temperature of various surfaces like snow, grass, or buildings, while air temperature is influenced by local conditions such as shade or wind. Ocean temperatures are derived from direct water measurements, making them distinct from air temperatures over land. The average temperature often cited in discussions about the greenhouse effect is derived from a combination of satellite and thermometer data, raising questions about the accuracy of historical comparisons. Understanding these distinctions is crucial for interpreting climate data and the implications of temperature changes.
  • #51
Svein said:
as a famous author said: "There are lies, damn lies and statistics".

That doesn't mean all statistics are lies. Nor does it mean that statistics is invalid.
 
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  • #52
PeterDonis said:
That doesn't mean all statistics are lies. Nor does it mean that statistics is invalid.
No, but it is a warning. Using statistics as a "sausage machine" (putting numbers into a formula and blindly accepting whatever comes out), is what gives statistics a bad name.

To be very concrete: Most statistics theorems are valid only under very specific circumstances. Those are spelled out in the proofs. Unfortunately, people have a tendency to skip verifying that.

I could refer horrible misuse of statistics tools - most often the linear regression, where some "researchers" run various sets of numbers through that "machine", get a correlation with an r2 of 0.1 and then announce a causal connection.
 
  • #53
Svein said:
Using statistics as a "sausage machine" (putting numbers into a formula and blindly accepting whatever comes out), is what gives statistics a bad name.

I agree with this as a general statement, but I don't see an instance of it in this thread. Nobody has been claiming that knowing the past history of global average temperature let's you make accurate predictions about local temperatures at a particular place.
 
  • #54
PeterDonis said:
Nobody has been claiming that knowing the past history of global average temperature let's you make accurate predictions about local temperatures at a particular place.
As long as that remains true, I am satisfied.
 

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